By Tito Drago
MADRID, Apr 9 2003 (IPS)

The image of the centre-right government of Prime Minister José María Aznar in Spain continues to weaken due to the administration’s support for the U.S.-led war on Iraq, and the ruling Popular Party is expected to lose backing from voters in the centre in next month’s municipal elections.

Spanish companies are negotiating with Washington, in the meantime, over the role they would play in the reconstruction of post-war Iraq.

Secretary of Tourism and Trade, Joan Costa, admitted Tuesday that he was negotiating Spain’s participation in the rebuilding of Iraq, although he insisted that the Aznar government’s ”top priority is humanitarian aid.”

Costa thus contradicted a declaration by Foreign Minister Ana Palacio, who emphatically denied last weekend that the government was involved in such conversations.

But the prospects of winning lucrative contracts for Spanish companies in the reconstruction of Iraq has not altered the results of opinion polls which show that more than 90 percent of public opinion remains opposed to the U.S.-British war, which has received strong backing from the Aznar administration.

The opposition to the war is expected to translate into a loss of votes for the governing Popular Party (PP) in the May 25 municipal elections, to the benefit of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), the main opposition force, which is led by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

The possible electoral setback is worrying PP leaders, some of whom have begun to mark their distance from the government’s policies.

One example of that is the administration’s second vice-president, Rodrigo Rato – a strong contender to succeed Aznar – who announced a surprise visit to Syria Monday to promote trade with that country, one of the staunchest opponents to the attack on its neighbour, Iraq.

Aznar’s expected loss of support among voters in the centre would also be due to the strengthening of Rodríguez Zapatero’s image as a centrist, and his condemnation of the war, Fernando Jáuregui, director of Confidirecto.com and an analyst with the public stations Televisión Española and Radio Nacional de España, told IPS.

The anti-war sentiment in Spain is so broad that King Juan Carlos, who according to the constitution is to stay out of political matters, publicly applauded a statement against the war on Monday.

After receiving the 2002 National Design Award from the king, Isidro Ferrer read out a poem by Gloria Fuertes, ”Claw of War”, and stated that the conflict in Iraq is ”unjust, illegal, tyrannical and waged on behalf of commercial, not humanitarian, interests.”

His words were greeted by loud applause, in which King Juan Carlos joined.

A retired army colonel who formed part of the Union of Democratic Military officers in the last years of the dictatorship of Francisco Franco (1939-1975) referred to the inner conflict plaguing some members of the ruling party.

This war ”raises a moral obligation to publicly speak out against it and mark one’s distance from a political commitment to leaders who demonstrate their perversity by insisting on continuing forward with this error, and with their deceipt,” said Piris.

The situation ”creates the obligation to try to stop at all costs this infernal farce put in motion from Washington,” he added.

The anti-war sentiment is also growing in a sector that is vital to the PP government – diplomatic circles.

A source at the Foreign Ministry who asked not to be identified told IPS that internal disagreements had arisen over a disciplinary measure imposed on former ambassador to Iraq Fernando Valderrama for resigning in October due to discrepancies with Aznar’s policies.

Although Foreign Minister Palacio ordered the disclinary measure, under-secretary of Foreign Affairs José Pedro Sebastián de Erice refused to sign it and put it into effect.

According to the source, the foreign minister plans to sign the document herself, to send a warning to other diplomats of the risk they are running if they add their signatures to a statement against the war that is currently circulating in the Foreign Ministry.

The crisis in the PP first came to light when town councillors in several cities left the party. But the depth of the internal rift became especially clear after two party leaders resigned when the war on Iraq was launched on Mar. 20.

The first to do so was a longstanding member of the governing party, Félix Pastor Ridruejo, and the second was parliamentary Deputy Jesús López-Medel, president of the Justice Commission in the lower house of Congress. The two men left the party in protest over the government’s stance towards the war.

Nevertheless, Aznar has also received shows of support. The director of the Real Instituto Elcano, Javier Bardají, an expert on international relations, said that Spain’s position regarding the war on Iraq has won it ”international credibility and stature, and has enabled it to feel part of the core group of democracies that lead the world.”

In Bardají’s view, ”the internal costs are compensated by the external benefits,” and ”in any case, the government is doing what it has to do, whether or not the citizens approve.”

Benigno Pendás, a professor of the history of political thought, said ”it is easy to wave a sign that reads ‘another world is possible’, but Aznar did much more than that,” taking firm steps in a positive direction by aligning himself with U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

However, things are not looking good for the PP with respect to the upcoming municipal elections.

The forerunner to the PP was the Popular Alliance (AP) created by a former minister of the Franco dictatorship, Manual Fraga, when democracy began to be restored in 1976.

The AP suffered several defeats at the polls – in the 1977, 1979 and 1982 elections – until in the early 1990s it attracted Christian Democrats and centrist factions that had formed part of the defunct Unión de Centro Democrático (UCD), the coalition that triumphed in the first democratic elections, in 1977, with Adolfo Suárez at its head.

The PP arose out of that alliance, still led by Fraga. After two failed attempts, the centre-right party, with Aznar at its head, won the 1996 and 2000 elections.

In his first term as prime minister, Aznar nudged the party closer to the centre. He achieved an agreement with the labour unions, and attempted to ensure that efforts to crack down on the illegal Basque separatist group ETA were carried out without breaking the law, differentiating his government from the PSOE administrations that governed Spain from 1983 to 1996.

But today, opinion poll results, enormous street demonstrations against Spain’s support for the war on Iraq, and attempts by some within the ruling party to distance themselves from the government’s foreign policy all indicate that many centrist voters may turn to the PSOE, dealing the PP a damaging electoral blow.

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