By Humberto Márquez
CARACAS, May 29 2003 (IPS)

The Venezuelan government and the political opposition signed an agreement Thursday aimed at overcoming the country’s political crisis through a popular vote on whether or not the president and other elected authorities should finish out their terms.

The Venezuelan government and the political opposition signed an agreement Thursday aimed at overcoming the country’s political crisis through a popular vote on whether or not the president and other elected authorities should finish out their terms.

If certain obstacles are surmounted, the referendum on populist President Hugo Chávez’s mandate could be held before the end of the year.

The electoral agreement put an end to the talks facilitated since November 2002 by Organisation of American States (OAS) Secretary-General César Gaviria with the backing of the Carter Centre of former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and a group of friendly nations.

That group, made up of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the United States, issued a statement that underlined ”the importance of the accord for strengthening a climate of peace and understanding” in Venezuela.

”We are satisfied,” said Gaviria, a former Colombian president, after the signing of the 19-point pact. ”The agreement amounts to the kind of solution that we have been seeking: peaceful, democratic, constitutional and electoral, in accordance with OAS Resolution 833.”

Six representatives of the governing coalition and six delegates of the Democratic Coordinator opposition alliance took part in the ceremony.

But analyst Alberto Garrido, who is opposed to Chávez, told IPS that ”there is an accumulation of economic, social and political conflicts in the country that are heading towards a…crisis, and the sides disputing power are unlikely to resolve, through a referendum, the kind of system in which they want to live.”

After the document was signed, Chávez delivered a nationally broadcast speech in which he stated that he was ”happy, given the sense of optimism. I reiterate our utmost willingness to work day after day to ensure that the agreement is not in vain. Tolerance has triumphed.”

The opposition representatives signed the agreement reluctantly, because the document did little more than restate provisions of the 1999 constitution, and failed to set a date for the referendum on the president’s mandate, which was left up to the electoral authority, the National Electoral Council (CNE).

The constitution – which was promoted by Chávez and approved in a popular vote – stipulates that a recall referendum can be held halfway through any elected official’s term.

One major obstacle for holding a vote on Chávez’s mandate is the fact that the five-member CNE has not even been appointed yet, because agreement must be reached by at least 110 of the 165 members of the legislature.

Parliament, made up of 86 ruling coalition and 79 opposition lawmakers, has failed to agree on which side will hold a majority – three out of five – of the seats in the CNE. The decision may be left in the hands of the Supreme Court.

The OAS, the group of friendly nations, and Nobel Peace Prize- winner Carter – who sent a message that was read at Thursday’s ceremony – urged the country to promptly appoint the members of the CNE.

According to Gaviria, ”The main achievement of the agreement is the 12th point, which invokes article 72 of the constitution.”

Article 72 states that the mandate of elected officials can be revoked halfway through their term – Aug. 19 marks the halfway- point of Chávez’s six-year presidency – by means of a referendum requested by at least 20 percent of all registered voters and convoked by the CNE.

”The accord does not satisfy all of the opposition’s aspirations, but it is a step forward towards the objective of an electoral, peaceful and democratic solution to Venezuela’s crisis of governability,” Social Democrat Timoteo Zambrano, the Democratic Coordinator’s top representative at the negotiating table, remarked to IPS.

If the members of the CNE are designated swiftly, referendums on the mandate of the president or other elected officials could be held by year-end, said Gaviria.

Leaders of several opposition parties and business groups complained that the agreement would allow the ruling coalition to make sure votes on municipal and regional officials were held prior to a referendum on cutting the president’s term short.

”The government is going to muddle and delay the process,” said Carlos Fernández, the head of Fedecámaras, the country’s most influential business association, which is staunchly opposed to the government.

Governors Eduardo Lapi and Henrique Salas, who are also anti- Chávez, said they backed the agreement ”only to avoid destroying the unity of the opposition movement.”

Edgar Paredes, the head of Gente del Petróleo – the union of managers of the state-owned oil company PDVSA that helped lead a failed two-month business and labour shutdown against Chávez in December and January – said he was opposed to the accord ”because it puts an end to the talks before solutions to other problems have been negotiated, like the dismissal of 18,000 oil company workers.”

Gaviria underlined that ”the accord does not resolve the country’s problems, does not totally satisfy the points of view of the parties to the talks, and depends on the good faith of both sides. But that’s what political agreements are like: they pave the way for settling differences.”

”Fortunately, sensibleness prevailed in the Democratic Coordinator,” said analyst Teodoro Petkoff, director of the daily newspaper Tal Cual. ”Those who tried to sow chaos and have not stopped hoping for a military coup d’etat don’t want an agreement; they want Chávez to resign.”

In Garrido’s view, ”The Coordinator signed the agreement from a position of weakness. A year ago, it had rivers of people in the streets, the managers of the oil company, and dissident military officers. Now it has none of that,” he said, referring to the waning of the enormous opposition protests demanding that Chávez step down, which were countered by huge pro-government demonstrations in this divided nation.

But ”the situation is not predictable,” he added, alluding to the armed forces, for example, most of which remained loyal to Chávez in April 2002, when the president was briefly removed from office by a coup staged by the opposition movement and dissident military officers.

The analyst also mentioned ”the appalling economic crisis (Gross Domestic Product fell 29 percent in the first quarter of 2003), sky-high unemployment (19.7 percent), and unrest in the countryside.”

The crisis ”could lead to outcomes before a referendum is held,” Garrido warned. ”A revolutionary scheme like Chávez’s (social revolution) is unlikely to stake its survival on a single popular vote.”

Excerpt:

By Humberto Márquez
CARACAS, May 29 2003 (IPS)

The Venezuelan government and the political opposition signed an agreement Thursday aimed at overcoming the country’s political crisis through a popular vote on whether or not the president and other elected authorities should finish out their terms.

If certain obstacles are surmounted, the referendum on populist President Hugo Chávez’s mandate could be held before the end of the year.

The electoral agreement put an end to the talks facilitated since November 2002 by Organisation of American States (OAS) Secretary-General César Gaviria with the backing of the Carter Centre of former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and a group of friendly nations.

That group, made up of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the United States, issued a statement that underlined ”the importance of the accord for strengthening a climate of peace and understanding” in Venezuela.

”We are satisfied,” said Gaviria, a former Colombian president, after the signing of the 19-point pact. ”The agreement amounts to the kind of solution that we have been seeking: peaceful, democratic, constitutional and electoral, in accordance with OAS Resolution 833.”

Six representatives of the governing coalition and six delegates of the Democratic Coordinator opposition alliance took part in the ceremony.

After the document was signed, Chávez delivered a nationally broadcast speech in which he stated that he was ”happy, given the sense of optimism. I reiterate our utmost willingness to work day after day to ensure that the agreement is not in vain. Tolerance has triumphed.”

The opposition representatives signed the agreement reluctantly, because the document did little more than restate provisions of the 1999 constitution, and failed to set a date for the referendum on the president’s mandate, which was left up to the electoral authority, the National Electoral Council (CNE).

The constitution – which was promoted by Chávez and approved in a popular vote – stipulates that a recall referendum can be held halfway through any elected official’s term.

One major obstacle for holding a vote on Chávez’s mandate is the fact that the five-member CNE has not even been appointed yet, because agreement must be reached by at least 110 of the 165 members of the legislature.

Parliament, made up of 86 ruling coalition and 79 opposition lawmakers, has failed to agree on which side will hold a majority – three out of five – of the seats in the CNE. The decision may be left in the hands of the Supreme Court.

The OAS, the group of friendly nations, and Nobel Peace Prize- winner Carter – who sent a message that was read at Thursday’s ceremony – urged the country to promptly appoint the members of the CNE.

According to Gaviria, ”The main achievement of the agreement is the 12th point, which invokes article 72 of the constitution.”

Article 72 states that the mandate of elected officials can be revoked halfway through their term – Aug. 19 marks the halfway- point of Chávez’s six-year presidency – by means of a referendum requested by at least 20 percent of all registered voters and convoked by the CNE.

”The accord does not satisfy all of the opposition’s aspirations, but it is a step forward towards the objective of an electoral, peaceful and democratic solution to Venezuela’s crisis of governability,” Social Democrat Timoteo Zambrano, the Democratic Coordinator’s top representative at the negotiating table, remarked to IPS.

If the members of the CNE are designated swiftly, referendums on the mandate of the president or other elected officials could be held by year-end, said Gaviria.

Leaders of several opposition parties and business groups complained that the agreement would allow the ruling coalition to make sure votes on municipal and regional officials were held prior to a referendum on cutting the president’s term short.

”The government is going to muddle and delay the process,” said Carlos Fernández, the head of Fedecámaras, the country’s most influential business association, which is staunchly opposed to the government.

Governors Eduardo Lapi and Henrique Salas, who are also anti- Chávez, said they backed the agreement ”only to avoid destroying the unity of the opposition movement.”

Edgar Paredes, the head of Gente del Petróleo – the union of managers of the state-owned oil company PDVSA that helped lead a failed two-month business and labour shutdown against Chávez in December and January – said he was opposed to the accord ”because it puts an end to the talks before solutions to other problems have been negotiated, like the dismissal of 18,000 oil company workers.”

Gaviria underlined that ”the accord does not resolve the country’s problems, does not totally satisfy the points of view of the parties to the talks, and depends on the good faith of both sides. But that’s what political agreements are like: they pave the way for settling differences.”

”Fortunately, sensibleness prevailed in the Democratic Coordinator,” said analyst Teodoro Petkoff, director of the daily newspaper Tal Cual. ”Those who tried to sow chaos and have not stopped hoping for a military coup d’etat don’t want an agreement; they want Chávez to resign.”

In Garrido’s view, ”The Coordinator signed the agreement from a position of weakness. A year ago, it had rivers of people in the streets, the managers of the oil company, and dissident military officers. Now it has none of that,” he said, referring to the waning of the enormous opposition protests demanding that Chávez step down, which were countered by huge pro-government demonstrations in this divided nation.

But ”the situation is not predictable,” he added, alluding to the armed forces, for example, most of which remained loyal to Chávez in April 2002, when the president was briefly removed from office by a coup staged by the opposition movement and dissident military officers.

The analyst also mentioned ”the appalling economic crisis (Gross Domestic Product fell 29 percent in the first quarter of 2003), sky-high unemployment (19.7 percent), and unrest in the countryside.”

The crisis ”could lead to outcomes before a referendum is held,” Garrido warned. ”A revolutionary scheme like Chávez’s (social revolution) is unlikely to stake its survival on a single popular vote.”

Excerpt: