By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 24 2003 (IPS)

International efforts are once again being stepped up to secure the release of Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, with Indonesia’s special envoy Ali Alatas seeing her in Rangoon and U.N. envoy on Burma Razali Ismail due to go there in a few days.

Alatas, former foreign minister of Indonesia, conveyed to Burma’s top generals the concerns of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN), the region’s main diplomatic grouping, about Suu Kyi’s continued detention.

Indonesia is the ASEAN chair this year and host to the 9th leaders’ summit on Oct.7-8 in Bali island, where the Burma issue is certain to come up.

Meantime, U.N. envoy Razali Ismail is to visit Rangoon on Sep. 30 and will be trying once again to get the stalled dialogue process restarted.

After handing over a letter of concern about Suu Kyi to Burmese officials and meeting with top leader Gen Than Shwe, and Prime Minister Gen. Khin Nyunt, Alatas told reporters in Rangoon that he was assured by both leaders that ”they appreciate the content of the letter and they would carefully consider the views and suggestions”.

Alatas did not meet the opposition leader because of her recent gynaecological surgery, but remains confident that Burma’s military rulers do not intend to keep Suu Kyi in detention indefinitely. He was not, however, given any time frame for her release.

The detention of Aung San Suu Kyi is ”becoming increasingly counterproductive," Alatas was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

The visits by Alatas and Razali come at a time when ironically, Suu Kyi’s major operation in a private hospital in Rangoon may well provide the generals with a way out of their predicament – how to release her without appearing to give in to external, especially western, pressure.

"The operation went well and the patient is back to normal – physically, mentally and spiritually," said Aung San Suu Kyi’s physician Dr Tin Myo Win, who attended the operation.

The opposition leader is still recuperating in the hospital, but is expected to be discharged soon after the final stitches are removed.

She has been incommunicado for nearly four months now, after she was taken in under ‘protective custody’ following an attack by vigilantes suspected to be with the Rangoon military government.

Earlier in September, Red Cross representatives were allowed to see her and were able to dispel fears that she was on hunger strike.

But the fact that Suu Kyi’s medical operation appears to have been successful will not lessen international pressure on Rangoon to release her immediately and unconditionally.

Diplomats in Rangoon believe the military regime will return the opposition leader to her residence when she is discharged from hospital and placed under house arrest. "The military authorities have a good humanitarian reason to move her home now," said a Rangoon-based Asian ambassador.

The operation has certainly given the generals an opportunity to take a major face-saving measure that could help reduce pressure from their Asian neighbours at least – especially at the ASEAN summit in Bali.

South-east Asian leaders are hoping to find a way of preventing the issue of Aung San Suu Kyi’s release and Burma’s failure to introduce political reform from dominating the summit.

"We are expecting a significant gesture from the regime in the next two weeks leading up to the summit," a senior Bangkok-based diplomat who regularly deals with Rangoon told IPS. "Placing her under house arrest and resuming the constitutional process would reduce the ASEAN pressure on Yangon (Rangoon), at least in the next few months."

"It is in the interest of ASEAN and (Burma) that no extraneous issue such as the problem of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi would mar the deliberations of ASEAN," as Alatas himself said.

By moving Suu Kyi home, after Alatas’ visit to Rangoon, the generals would also give ASEAN some credit for quiet diplomacy and avoid its move being linked to U.S. pressure or Razali’s visit to Rangoon.

But apart from seeing Suu Kyi released, foreign governments – even ASEAN – will want to see some progress in the reconciliation process in the near future.

The new prime minister, Gen Khin Nyunt, will have to prove the government’s sincerity about introducing political and economic reform in the near future.

"General Khin Nyunt needs time to be able to press ahead with his plans for change," said a Rangoon-based Asian diplomat. "He needs a honeymoon period, free of overt pressure say three months or a hundred days."

He has announced a seven-point road map to democracy that would involve drawing up a new constitution and holding new elections. The government set up a National Convention – comprising more than 700 handpicked representatives – to draw up a new constitution more than 10 years ago.

The convention has not met since 1996 after Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), walked out and accused the military authorities of not allowing a free debate or discussion and simply using it to rubberstamp decisions already made by the generals.

Now it seems the government is preparing to reconvene the National Convention. A new steering committee has been named, partly because some of the previous members had passed away, and assigned tasks.

Apart from several members who are attorneys or have a strong legal background, many of the members are from military intelligence and close to Khin Nyunt.

While they are likely to support the military intelligence chief’s views and accommodate Suu Kyi and her party, there remains evidence that Rangoon is prepaying to bypass her anyway.

In the past few weeks, the regime has been organising pro-government rallies supporting Khin Nyunt’s road map to democracy. The United Solidarity Development Association, a civilian organisation that the military uses to mobilise support for government policy, has been arranging these meetings.

In the past there was definitely a division within the military top brass over how to deal with Aung San Suu Kyi, with the intelligence chief favouring working with her. In recent weeks though, there have been signs that these differences have disappeared.

"Khin Nyunt is pressing on with his plans and has decided he cannot deal with the lady," said a source in Rangoon close to the intelligence chief.

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