By Larry Jagan
RANGOON, Mar 6 2004 (IPS)

Amid signs that significant change in Burma may emerge in the next few weeks, divisions within the military leadership over the dialogue process could delay any efforts to move the country toward democracy.

This week’s visit to the South-east Asian country by U.N. special envoy to Burma, Razali Ismail, may prove to be the catalyst in resolving the country’s political deadlock.

"I think the prime minister is truly committed to taking this process to a transition to democracy," Razali said Thursday at the end of his three-day mission to Rangoon. "I believe (Prime Minister Gen) Khin Nyunt now feels he can establish a working relationship with Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy."

Khin Nyunt is committed to taking his country toward democracy and the detained pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, is prepared to support him, according to Razali.

Aung San Suu Kyi, who is still under house arrest, is prepared to work with the prime minister, said the U.N. envoy who met her twice during his visit to Rangoon. "She told me she is prepared to turn a new page," said Razali, "and is looking forward to being free and working with the prime minister to move the national reconciliation process forward."

"I hope to see Aung San Suu Kyi free soon, maybe in a matter of weeks from now,” Razali added. U.N. souces say no date was given for her release, but there is an expectation on both sides that this will happen around the Water Festival in mid-April – the festival that marks the Burmese New Year. "It’s an informal deadline," said Razali.

In August, Gen Khin Nyunt, shortly after he became prime minister, announced a seven-stage road map to democracy. Since then, there has been little movement on what is described as the national reconciliation process – apart from the start of peace talks with the ethnic rebel group, the Karen.

While Razali expressed optimism again that the Burmese military leaders are now poised to move forward, the U.N. envoy was not given any timetable for the future political process. "The government may not have given Mr Razali any dates, but they will have given him some understanding of the steps that would be involved," said a senior Asian diplomat in Rangoon.

The first step is certain to be for Aung San Suu Kyi to be allowed to meet with the other NLD leaders, three of whom are still under house arrest here. "This is likely to happen soon if it hasn’t already," said a Rangoon-based diplomat. This would be followed by the release of more political prisoners, including the NLD leaders, and the reopening of the party’s offices throughout the country.”

These signs appear to point to what some call Aung San Suu Kyi’s cooperation with Khin Nyunt, including participating in the National Convention – part of the road map to democracy expected to start in months and to restart the process of drafting a new Constitution.

Five months ago, when Razali last visited Rangoon, the opposition leader told him she was prepared to work with Gen Khin Nyunt on this road map. Now, according to Razali, she is prepared to establish what she called "a harmonious relationship with the prime minister".

The real problem though remains whether Gen Khin Nyunt has the authority to press on with his road map. There is a major division between the top Burmese leaders over how fast to proceed with the national reconciliation process and what role, if any, Aung San Suu Kyi should play.

While Khin Nyunt may be determined to press on with his road map, there is also no doubt that the country’s top leader, Senior Gen Than Shwe, would prefer to exclude the opposition leader altogether from the national reconciliation process and is no hurry to convene the National Convention.

"It is no accident that the senior general was out of town during Razali’s visit," said a diplomat in Rangoon. "The fact that he didn’t want to see Ambassador Razali probably means he was not happy with the envoy’s visit, though the trip would not have taken place with out his tacit approval," he added.

Diplomats in Rangoon have long argued that Burma’s top general is the key obstacle to political progress in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi’s position has been clear for some time: She is prepared to work with the prime minister, but this offer of cooperation does not extend to Gen Than Shwe.

Now Razali seems to also be convinced that this is the case.

"It is necessary that Prime Minister Khin Nyunt must be given a full mandate to take the necessary steps towards national reconciliation and democracy," he said on his return from Rangoon.

Aung San Suu Kyi has been in detention since May 30, 2003, after pro-government thugs attacked her car and supporters during a trip in northern Burma, leaving several people dead. It has since become known as the ‘Depayin incident’. Many opposition activists have been demanding justice for the victims of Depayin.

But the pro-democracy leader seems to be taking a more strategic view. According to U.N. sources, she has consistently said that while there must be an independent inquiry into the attack, it should not be allowed to be obstacle to the start of real political dialogue with the military regime.

"There are no recriminations she’s not asking for a pound of flesh," Razali said this week.

Diplomats here also said that Khin Nyunt knows he has to deal with Aung San Suu Kyi if he is to move the process forward. "He needs her and she needs him if there is to be real political change in Burma in the future, " said a senior diplomat in Rangoon.

Excerpt: