By IPS Correspondents
SAN JOSE, Mar 22 2004 (IPS)

The overwhelming victory of El Salvador’s governing party in Sunday’s elections will not make it any easier to ratify the free trade treaty signed with the United States, because the left will maintain its majority in Congress until 2006.

During its fourth consecutive term in office the National Republican Alliance (Arena) will have a difficult time dealing with such pressing problems as high unemployment, massive emigration and an economy that will require serious adjustments in the short term, said political experts consulted by IPS.

Arena candidate Elías Antonio Saca, a radio executive and former sportscaster, received 57 percent of the vote Sunday, while Schafik Handal, former guerrilla commander of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), took 35 percent, reported the national electoral tribunal.

There will be no need for a runoff vote in May, as Saca’s triumph was enough for him to be sworn in as president on Jun. 1.

The alliance between the United Democratic Centre and the Christian Democrat Party, with Hector Silva as their candidate, won 3.6 percent of the vote, and the National Conciliation Party obtained 3.5 percent.

The reactivation of the Salvadoran economy will be one of the biggest challenges facing Saca, said independent analyst Juan José García and Sergio Bran, of the Central American University of San Salvador (UCA).

The elections took place without incidents of violence. There was a relatively healthy turnout of about 63 percent of the 3.4 million Salvadorans on the voting rolls.

The next big political battle will take place in Congress, which is to decide on whether to ratify the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), agreed between five countries of the region and the United States in December. The legislative debate is to begin in April.

The FMLN, which holds 31 of the 84 parliamentary seats since the March 2003 elections, threatens to block the treaty ratification.

Arena has 27 lawmakers, and the National Conciliation Party has 15. The Christian Democratic Party and the United Democratic Centre split the rest.

In his first declarations after claiming victory, Saca, 39, said he was confident that the ratification of CAFTA would reactivate the Salvadoran economy.

The president-elect announced a policy aimed at attracting foreign investment and said he would seek bilateral agreements to benefit Salvadoran immigrants in the United States.

In recognising his defeat, Handal said CAFTA was "odious". The leftist candidate said, "We are not going to ratify this treaty."

García told IPS that the country’s trade deficit (1.27 billion dollars in 2003) will become unsustainable with the passing of the years, and that the dollarisation of the economy (as of Jan. 1, 2001) would favour the growth of imports, worsening the imbalance.

The money sent by Salvadorans living in the United States and other countries of the industrialised North to their families back home "cannot continue being the pillar of our economy. It is essential to reactivate other sectors," he said.

Amongst the other challenges facing Arena, which has governed the country since Alfredo Cristiani’s victory in 1989, is the development of the rural sector, steeped in poverty and unemployment, said García.

"We have experienced 10 years in which rural El Salvador has been overcome by the lack of employment opportunities," he said.

According to official figures, unemployment in El Salvador stands at nine percent of the workforce, but UCA puts the rate at 19 percent. Meanwhile, at least 42 percent of the population lives in poverty.

These two economic indicators are at the root of the constant flow of emigrants to the United States.

Currently there are 2.7 million Salvadorans in the United States, and they sent 2.33 billion dollars home in remittances in 2003. El Salvador’s population is just 6.5 million.

"Between 500 and 700 Salvadorans try to leave for the United States each day, and this is a situation that the new government will have to correct," commented García.

The UCA’s Bran, meanwhile, expressed scepticism that Saca would encourage real change in that situation because, he predicted, the new administration would be dedicated to providing benefits to the private sector executives.

"No party proposed during the campaign how, when or with what resources they would try to confront the country’s main social and economic problems. We Salvadorans can expect to see little change in this new period," said Bran.

Arena should implement a programme of "national reconciliation," he said, "because the country is terribly polarised, as was evident during the electoral campaign."

The ideological differences that gave rise to the 1980-1992 civil war, in which at least 75,000 people were killed and thousands disappeared, were exacerbated once again in recent months, said the expert.

On another front, Bran and García warned that the "heavy hand" policy that Saca has promised against the youth gangs known as "maras" is a superficial approach to the complex problem.

García said the office of the human rights investigator, relegated to a second tier by the outgoing government of Francisco Flores, should see its authority restored.

Guadalupe Mejía, president of the Committee of Victims of Human Rights Violations, told IPS that for there to be a true national reconciliation, Arena must comply with the recommendations of the Truth Commission, established by the peace accords that ended the civil war in 1992.

"Material reparation for the victims of the war has not taken place and impunity continues to reign in the country. One must remember that Alfredo Cristiani decreed an amnesty that benefited hundreds of human rights violators," said Mejía.

The activist noted that on Mar. 12 her group presented the Arena and FMLN parties with a document demanding compliance with the human rights provisions of the 1992 peace accords.

"We cannot follow a policy of pardon and oblivion, because we, the victims, do not even know who we should pardon," she said.

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