By Vesna Peric Zimonjic
BELGRADE, Apr 29 2004 (IPS)

Slovenia will be the only former Yugoslav republic to become a full EU member from May 1; will the others be joining soon?

Slovenia will be the only former Yugoslav republic to become a full EU member from May 1.

"For others, it will be a thorny yet prospective road…they will have to rely on themselves if they want to join the family of European nations," British Minister for European Affairs Dennis MacShane said last week in Belgrade, capital of Serbia and Montenegro. "The prize of membership will have to be won."

In the Balkans region, Romania and Bulgaria are due to join the European Union (EU) by 2007. Next in line are Croatia with a population of 4.2 million, Bosnia-Herzegovina (3.5 million), Macedonia (2 million) and Serbia and Montenegro including Kosovo (10 million), the remains of the former six- member Yugoslav federation that fell apart in bloody wars of the 1990s. The former federation had a population of 23 million.

With the exception of Croatia the other former republics may have to wait decades to join the EU.

"They still fight with the heritage of darkness, war, hatred and nationalism," Zivorad Kovacevic, head of the Serbian European Movement said at a recent conference in Belgrade.

"This is the 21st century and the European road is the only road for this country," Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader said after Zagreb got the news.

Sanader is heir to former Croat leader Franjo Tudjman, but has put aside the fervent nationalism of his predecessor. He has included representatives of the Serb minority in his government, and joined Croatian Serbs at their Orthodox Christmas this year.

Under Tudjman more than 200,000 Croatian Serbs left after the army crushed their Belgrade-backed rebellion in 1995. Some 30,000 have returned since.

The blame for the exodus, and for the execution of more than 1,000 Serbs at the time is put on Croatian general Ante Gotovina. He is wanted by the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY), but remains at large.

The Commission says "the economic position of Croatia is better than the majority of countries which will enter the EU on May 1." But it has to hand over Gen. Gotovina. EU external relations commissioner Chris Patten warned recently that "it is important that Croatia continues fully to cooperate with the Hague court."

If Croatia is headed down that road, Serbia and Montenegro is not. Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said recently that "handing over of war crime suspects is not a priority for the government."

Last month the EU shelved the assessment process for Serbia and Montenegro until September. Serbia is due to hold presidential elections June 13, and ultranationalist leader Tomislav Nikolic is likely to win. He belongs to the Serbian Radical Party that helped Milosevic’s Socialists in the wars of the 1990s.

"If Nikolic wins, it will be no EU at all," analyst Ivan Torov told IPS. "Serbia will go down the road of self-isolation."

In Bosnia-Herzegovina the European Commission has identified 16 areas where local laws need to be harmonised with those of the EU. But little has been done about this. The country remains ethnically divided after the Dayton peace accords that ended the war in 1995.

People within the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Republic of Srpska (the Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina) have dramatically different visions for the future. Muslims want Bosnia to remain as it is, Croats eye their next of kin in neighbouring Croatia, while Serbs would like unification with Serbia proper.

But the European Commission says it would like negotiations on stabilisation and the accession process with Bosnia-Herzegovina to start next year "on condition that Bosnia makes significant progress in a number of areas identified as priorities for action."

These include respecting international obligations, more effective governance and human rights provisions, judicial reform, and a drive against organised crime.

Prospects look more promising in Macedonia, the only former Yugoslav republic that left the federation peacefully in 1992. Macedonia submitted an application for EU membership March 22. Public support for membership stands at 87 percent.

The EU helped Macedonia overcome a rebellion by local ethnic Albanians in 2001 that led the country to the brink of civil war. The EU-sponsored Ohrid agreement gave ethnic Albanians greater access to power.

But the European Commission finds weak points in Macedonia’s case. "The country has made slow progress in strengthening the rule of law, mainly due to structural weakness of the law enforcement and judicial institutions, politicised and poor public administration, corruption and organised crime," the Commission said.

Patten said a year ago that "the map of EU will not be complete until the countries of the Western Balkans are included." But it is not clear how this will happen.

Excerpt:

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic
BELGRADE, Apr 29 2004 (IPS)

Slovenia will be the only former Yugoslav republic to become a full EU member from May 1.

"For others, it will be a thorny yet prospective road…they will have to rely on themselves if they want to join the family of European nations," British Minister for European Affairs Dennis MacShane said last week in Belgrade, capital of Serbia and Montenegro. "The prize of membership will have to be won."

In the Balkans region, Romania and Bulgaria are due to join the European Union (EU) by 2007. Next in line are Croatia with a population of 4.2 million, Bosnia-Herzegovina (3.5 million), Macedonia (2 million) and Serbia and Montenegro including Kosovo (10 million), the remains of the former six- member Yugoslav federation that fell apart in bloody wars of the 1990s. The former federation had a population of 23 million.

With the exception of Croatia the other former republics may have to wait decades to join the EU.

"They still fight with the heritage of darkness, war, hatred and nationalism," Zivorad Kovacevic, head of the Serbian European Movement said at a recent conference in Belgrade.

But the European Commission gave the green light to Croatia last week to start membership negotiations. The country has substantially improved its democratic institutions and has a sound economic basis to meet the conditions desired by the EU, the Commission said.

Sanader is heir to former Croat leader Franjo Tudjman, but has put aside the fervent nationalism of his predecessor. He has included representatives of the Serb minority in his government, and joined Croatian Serbs at their Orthodox Christmas this year.

Under Tudjman more than 200,000 Croatian Serbs left after the army crushed their Belgrade-backed rebellion in 1995. Some 30,000 have returned since.

The blame for the exodus, and for the execution of more than 1,000 Serbs at the time is put on Croatian general Ante Gotovina. He is wanted by the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY), but remains at large.

The Commission says "the economic position of Croatia is better than the majority of countries which will enter the EU on May 1." But it has to hand over Gen. Gotovina. EU external relations commissioner Chris Patten warned recently that "it is important that Croatia continues fully to cooperate with the Hague court."

If Croatia is headed down that road, Serbia and Montenegro is not. Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said recently that "handing over of war crime suspects is not a priority for the government."

Last month the EU shelved the assessment process for Serbia and Montenegro until September. Serbia is due to hold presidential elections June 13, and ultranationalist leader Tomislav Nikolic is likely to win. He belongs to the Serbian Radical Party that helped Milosevic’s Socialists in the wars of the 1990s.

"If Nikolic wins, it will be no EU at all," analyst Ivan Torov told IPS. "Serbia will go down the road of self-isolation."

In Bosnia-Herzegovina the European Commission has identified 16 areas where local laws need to be harmonised with those of the EU. But little has been done about this. The country remains ethnically divided after the Dayton peace accords that ended the war in 1995.

People within the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Republic of Srpska (the Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina) have dramatically different visions for the future. Muslims want Bosnia to remain as it is, Croats eye their next of kin in neighbouring Croatia, while Serbs would like unification with Serbia proper.

But the European Commission says it would like negotiations on stabilisation and the accession process with Bosnia-Herzegovina to start next year "on condition that Bosnia makes significant progress in a number of areas identified as priorities for action."

These include respecting international obligations, more effective governance and human rights provisions, judicial reform, and a drive against organised crime.

Prospects look more promising in Macedonia, the only former Yugoslav republic that left the federation peacefully in 1992. Macedonia submitted an application for EU membership March 22. Public support for membership stands at 87 percent.

The EU helped Macedonia overcome a rebellion by local ethnic Albanians in 2001 that led the country to the brink of civil war. The EU-sponsored Ohrid agreement gave ethnic Albanians greater access to power.

But the European Commission finds weak points in Macedonia’s case. "The country has made slow progress in strengthening the rule of law, mainly due to structural weakness of the law enforcement and judicial institutions, politicised and poor public administration, corruption and organised crime," the Commission said.

Patten said a year ago that "the map of EU will not be complete until the countries of the Western Balkans are included." But it is not clear how this will happen.

Excerpt: