By Marwaan Macan-Markar
BANGKOK, Apr 22 2004 (IPS)

Burma’s military government appears set to shoot itself in the foot with the uncertainty it is creating over political reform in that South-east Asian nation.

A major test for Rangoon was to have been its participation in the second round of an international dialogue, dubbed the ‘Bangkok Process’, that was due to be held in Thailand in late April.

But by Thursday, sources close to Thai foreign ministry officials said that the Burmese junta was not prepared to attend the two-day meeting from Apr. 29-30. ”The Bangkok Process meeting is being postponed,” a Thai foreign affairs expert told IPS.

This hardly surprises Teddy Buri, who leads a group of Burmese parliamentarians in exile. ”The Bangkok Process was about bringing change in Burma but the (Burmese) government had nothing to deliver to show its commitment,” Buri said in an interview. The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the junta calls itself, has ”a long history of broken promises and lies,” added Buri. He is among those elected in a 1990 parliamentary election, whose results the junta refused to recognise.

The fate of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been detained since May 30 last year, was an issue expected to come up during the international talks in Thailand.

Speculation about Suu Kyi’s release has gained momentum in recent weeks, especially following the recent release from detention of two senior members of her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD).

”There was talk that Daw Suu Kyi will be freed on April 21,” said Zin Lin, information officer for the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), the elected government-in-exile.

He also echoed a view consistent among Burmese exiles and Burmese political watchers – that a political reform process without Suu Kyi will be irrelevant. ”Her participation will make it valid; give it legitimacy,” Zin Lin added during an interview.

This week, the SPDC got another embarrassing reminder of why a detained Suu Kyi cannot be wished away when the U.N. premier human rights body demanded the freedom of the Nobel Peace laureate.

During the 60th annual session of the U.N. Human Rights Commission in Geneva, the Burmese government was also condemned in a resolution for its systematic violation of human rights and suppression of political freedom.

Suu Kyi and senior NLD members were arrested after goons sympathetic to the junta attacked them on May 30. This was the latest in a series of arrests that the pro-democracy leader has been subject to since the current military rulers captured power in 1988.

Following the May incident, which triggered a storm of outrage globally, Rangoon revealed a noticeable shift in its political approach, key among them was the announcement by Burmese Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt of a seven-point programme toward political reform.

Included in this process is the resumption of the National Convention in May to draft a new constitution for Burma. The Thai government welcomed this as a sign of progress, given that the National Convention was last convened in 1993 but only lasted till 1996 due to the NLD walking out under protest.

In December last year, Thailand cemented its commitment toward political reform in neighbouring Burma by hosting the groundbreaking ‘Bangkok Process’ dialogue in Bangkok.

Ten Asian and European governments participated in that three-hour meeting with the Burmese foreign minister, who announced that Rangoon would press ahead with the National Convention in 2004.

The Thai government played up the significance of that December meeting and has since hoped that the second round in April would strengthen Burma’s road to democracy.

”I believe that the upcoming meeting will push the National Convention to announce the drafting of a constitution,” Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai told the press here in March.

Such optimism is misplaced, says Debbie Stothard of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, a regional human rights lobby. ”The (Burmese) regime is not willing to open the constitutional process and make it democratic,” she told IPS.

Rangoon’s decision not to participate in the ‘Bangkok Process’ suggests how uncomfortable the junta would be if pressed on the openness of the constitutional process, she added.

For its part, the SPDC has done well to prove its critics right. The junta made it known this week that it strongly favours a dominant role for the military to be recognised in the new constitution.

The SPDC has ”no intention of introducing a new process during the National Convention,” said exiled parliamentarian Buri.

The convention process, due to start on May 17, ”will continue from where it last ended, which means no freedom of speech and limited interaction and discussions among the political groups invited to participate,” he said.

”The SPDC is making a big mistake by this,” Buri asserted. ”The same with their effort to marginalise the NLD and Suu Kyi before the convention.”

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