By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, May 31 2004 (IPS)

The latest refusal by Burma military rulers to allow U.N. special rapporteur on human rights Paulo Sergio Pinheiro to visit Rangoon seems to reflect a growing division between the country’s top generals over how to proceed with the national reconciliation process.

This development, which occurs two weeks after the revival of the constitution-drafting process in Burma and a year after the May 30, 2003 violent attack on opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s convoy, may also mean that the regime has decided to shun the international community and impose its own form of isolation.

In an interview, Pinheiro is upset about not being given access to update his assessment of the human rights situation there. ”The Burmese government is wasting a chance to have their views incorporated into my report,” Pinheiro told IPS.

The U.N. envoy is due to table a new report on Burma to the U.N. General Assembly in July. He had hoped to meet Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt and other government ministers, pro-democracy leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi and representatives of the ethnic minorities.

Pinheiro’s highest priority, according to U.N. officials in Geneva, is to review the National Convention, which started meeting on May 17 to draw up the guidelines for a new constitution.

”Professor Pinheiro has not been refused entry but requested to wait for a mutually convenient time to make this visit,” according to the government’s military spokesman.

This is the second time in three months that he has been refused access to Burma.

He had originally wanted to visit Burma in mid-March to get the government’s point of view and assess any changes that might have occurred since his previous visit in December 2003, before reporting back to the U.N. human rights committee in Geneva in April.

Then the Burmese authorities told him that a visit was not convenient and it would be possible in late April or May.

At the time, there were delicate secret negotiations taking place between the generals and the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and the regime did not want anything to get in the way of these discussions.

The military had also begun to allow the other senior members of her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, then also under house arrest, to meet the opposition leader.

The regime’s reluctance to allow Pinheiro into Burma at the moment seems to be closely related to the widening divisions between top generals over how to proceed with their proposed plans for political reform.

Prime Minister Khin Nyunt understands the need for the national reconciliation process to involve the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the pro-democracy parties. But under the orders of Burma’s top general Than Shwe, the National Convention reconvened without the participation of Aung San Suu Kyi’s party. There is no doubt that there are major differences between the top generals over how to deal with the pro-democracy leader and her party, according to Asian diplomats.

Than Shwe has long said the political parties need not be involved in the drafting of the constitution, despite the regime’s previous insistence that the elections of 1990 were actually meant to select the representatives who would draw up the new constitution.

”The political parties will contest the elections after the new constitution is in place,” Than Shwe told Razali on earlier visits to Rangoon.

While the hardliners may see no role for the political parties before the new elections, the prime minister and the pragmatists in military intelligence and the government believe that a national reconciliation process that involves Suu Kyi and pro-democracy parties would engage the international community and get it to support the reform process.

In the past few months, Prime Minister Khin Nyunt has candidly told both Razali and the Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai that all final decisions on the national reconciliation process are now firmly in Than Shwe’s hands.

But Than Shwe is not alone in taking a hard line.

Ostensibly he has established a committee – including himself, Gen Khin Nyunt, Gen Maung Aye, the chief of staff Gen Thura Shwe Mann, Lt General Soe Win (Secretary One) and Lt Gen Thein Sein (Secretary Two) – to oversee every aspect of the national reconciliation process. But the reality is that nothing is done without Than Shwe’s specific approval.

Military intelligence personnel are very sensitive about critical comments on the National Convention being aired in the international media.

Participants have been warned not to pass information about the proceedings on to people outside the convention and have been threatened with up to 20 years’ imprisonment if they criticise the National Convention or make anti-government comments.

While the Burmese government-controlled media continue to insist that the convention marks a significant and historic moment in Burmese history, neither Than Shwe or Khin Nyunt were at the ceremonial opening session. It would appear that neither wants to be too closely associated with it – or be seen publicly to own the process.

Given Khin Nyunt’s close participation in the process to date, including in convincing the ceasefire groups to attend, his absence may have been his way of distancing himself from the convention.

”Khin Nyunt does not want to discuss the progress of the National Convention or have the National Convention used to criticise him,” said a western diplomat based in Rangoon. ”This is something he could not avoid if Pinheiro was allowed to visit at this time.”

The prime minister is also not keen to answer questions about Aung San Suu Kyi’s continued house arrest at this moment.

”Burma’s military leaders are anxious to keep Aung San Suu Kyi totally isolated at the moment for fear that she would be manipulated by foreign influences and openly condemn the National Convention,” said a senior U.N. official. That is likely to be another reason that Pinheiro has been snubbed.

He is not the only key envoy who has been refused access to Burma recently. The special envoy of the Indonesian president, former foreign minister Ali Alatas, was refused permission to visit Burma in mid-April. The U.N. envoy Razali, anxious to return to Rangoon before the National Convention reconvened, was also rebuffed.

Until something emerges from the National Convention, nothing is likely to happen in Rangoon.

There is extreme unease and nervousness within the senior ranks of military intelligence,” said a U.N. official who regularly deals with the military. ”It seems everyone is running for cover in anticipation of a backlash against them.”

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