By Patricia Grogg
HAVANA, Sep 24 2004 (IPS)

The Cuban government has little hope for a change in U.S. policy towards the island after the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. But in other sectors of Cuban society, there are some who believe that even a second term under George W. Bush would be different.

“I support John Kerry, the Democratic candidate for president in the November elections, because I believe that anyone would be better than Bush,” Cuban dissident Eloy Gutiérrez Menoyo, a former rebel commander who is now asking to be allowed to continue his activism legally in Cuba, said in an interview with IPS.

Nevertheless, a change in Washington’s stance could come under either Bush or Kerry, he added. “There is a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives that is in favour of a new U.S policy towards Cuba, a policy that isn’t controlled by an elite minority of the Cuban exile community,” he explained.

In his view, Washington’s positions on Cuba up until now, under Bush and his predecessors, have been largely determined by the interests of Cuban-Americans on the “extreme right”.

“But this is a sector that is dying out, and is now a minority when it comes to drawing votes,” said Gutiérrez Menoyo. Ultimately, it will be the U.S. Congress that will impose a “coherent, good-neighbour policy” towards the island, he added.

Gutiérrez Menoyo returned to Cuba in August 2003. He has been waiting since then for a response to his request to legally reside in the country and open an office of Cambio Cubano (Cuban Change), the moderate dissident organisation he founded in 1993 while living in the United States.

Today, however, he is a fervent critic of the policy of confrontation, which he views as detrimental to any possibility of democratisation.

IPS: Do you envision any changes in policy towards Cuba under a Democratic administration headed by Kerry?

Gutiérrez Menoyo: An administration headed by Kerry would undoubtedly have a different view towards Cuba. Not only Kerry – anyone who got elected would be better than Bush. The problem is that Kerry hasn’t really presented voters with a clearly defined policy, and on some issues there isn’t any visible difference between the two candidates. That will lose him votes.

IPS: If Kerry wins, is he likely to take a hard line on Cuba?

G.M.: On the contrary. He’s much more likely to support measures in favour of family reunification, or allowing people to send money to their relatives in Cuba, or lifting the embargo.

IPS: Have the events of Sep. 11, 2001 had an influence on this election campaign?

G.M.: Yes. People in the United States apparently prefer Bush because they believe he will do a better job of fighting terrorism. But there are a lot of contradictions when it comes to this matter. I would say that if Kerry manages, between now and the elections, to clearly and courageously define his policies towards Iraq, Cuba and other important issues, he could easily pull ahead.

IPS: What do you think a second term under Bush would be like?

G.M.: During a second term, he would no longer have to be concerned with getting re-elected. He could decide that he had already paid back the right-wing sector of the Cuban-American community for whatever financial support they may have given him. He would have to pay more attention to Congress, which is getting tired of being vetoed every time it proposes some kind of relaxation (of restrictions on Cuba).

On the other hand, I don’t think the Republicans are properly gauging the value of Florida, because the largest concentration of Cuban-Americans is in Dade and Broward counties, where the Democrats have always won in the past. Bush only managed to win the last election (in 2000) on the basis of fraud, because he actually took less votes.

IPS: Do you think there is any possibility of a U.S. military attack on Cuba?

G.M.: None whatsoever. Above all, because the Pentagon has a very well-defined policy on this matter, and it has publicly stated, on numerous occasions, that Cuba does not pose a threat of any kind to the United States.

Even if Bush is re-elected, there would be no danger to Cuba. And I think that the lifting of the blockade and the establishment of a good-neighbour policy would be just as likely under Bush as under Kerry.

IPS: You say that any new president would be better than the one in office now, but at the same time you believe a second term under Bush would be less harmful for Cuba. Isn’t that a contradiction?

G.M.: The distinction I would make is that Bush would accept a change in stance because of pressure from Congress, whereas Kerry would promote it because he agrees with it.

IPS: Do you think there could be a repeat of the fraud that you say helped Bush get elected in 2000?

G.M.: Perhaps, but this time the extreme right would be running a huge risk, because a lot of different institutions in the United States are going to be following the elections very closely. That means that it will be much more difficult to get away with any kind of tricks.

IPS: Do you see any practical usefulness in the recommendations made by the Presidential Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, which were submitted to Bush in May and used as the basis to adopt new restrictions?

G.M. The report and its recommendations were drawn up by people who know very little about Cuba, and have no common sense. Moreover, the U.S. government has absolutely no right to create a commission for the transition in Cuba, because that is the business of Cubans. The measures are interventionist, and they hurt the people most of all. They also have some impact on the government, but certainly not enough to bring it down.

IPS: What recommendations would you make to the new leader in the White House to improve bilateral relations?

G.M.: That U.S. citizens be allowed to travel to Cuba, and a halt to funding for the Cuban exile groups in the United States. There are a lot of extreme right-wing groups that receive huge amounts of funding, under the pretext that they are helping the dissident movement in Cuba.

For its part, the Cuban government has to realise that there is also an internal embargo on the freedoms and rights of the people, which needs to be lifted as well. This would open up tremendous possibilities for both political and economic changes.

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