By IPS Correspondents
MAPUTO, Dec 15 2004 (IPS)

It would come as no surprise to find that Mozambique’s ruling Frelimo party has put champagne bottles on ice. Preliminary results from general elections held earlier this month (Dec. 1 and 2) show that its presidential candidate, Armando Guebuza, has taken a comfortable lead in the poll.

POLITICS-MOZAMBIQUE: Electoral Victory at Hand for Frelimo – But Apathy Rules

Bayano Valy

MAPUTO, Dec 15 (IPS) – It would come as no surprise to find that Mozambique’s ruling Frelimo party has put champagne bottles on ice. Preliminary results from general elections held earlier this month (Dec. 1 and 2) show that its presidential candidate, Armando Guebuza, has taken a comfortable lead in the poll.

The Election Observer Group, which includes various Mozambican non-governmental organisations, said this week that final results would probably give Guebuza about two million votes. His main opponent, Renamo head Afonso Dhlakama, was expected to garner one million.

Renamo, together with various smaller opposition parties, is alleging widespread fraud at the polls, and has called for a rerun of the vote.

But while observers agree there were a number of irregularities, they do not appear to believe these affected the outcome of the election. If something could be said to have undermined the legitimacy of the vote, it is that Mozambicans stayed away from polling stations in droves.

With a population estimated at 18 million, Mozambique has 7.5 million registered voters – roughly a third of whom cast ballots on Dec. 1 and 2. This formed a striking contrast to the turnout during previous elections in 1994 and 1999.

Analysts see in this apathy a silent protest about the way that Mozambique is being governed – and a dismissal of opposition claims that it could improve matters.

“There’s a set of factors related to governance that have bred a system that tends to exclude the bulk of Mozambicans,” political analyst Fernando Gonçalves told IPS, adding “The government has not done much to resolve the problems that affect Mozambicans.”

These problems include public corruption and the toll being taken by the AIDS pandemic. As with many other countries in Southern Africa, Mozambique is battling HIV prevalence figures that are in the double digits: the country is presently believed to have an infection rate of almost 15 percent.

In an effort to change the view that graft has taken a firm hold on government, officials introduced a public sector reform programme in 2001. This 10-year initiative aims, amongst other things, to improve public finance management – and the professionalism of civil servants.

As part of the programme, government also commissioned a study about public perceptions of corruption. This document was supposed to have been made public in September, but remained under wraps. Inevitably, suspicions arose that its findings were withheld because they would have damaged Guebuza’s prospects in this month’s poll.

Seasoned journalist Paul Fauvet told IPS that he saw nothing sinister in the delay. “This would not be the first time that government institutions have failed to meet their deadlines,” he said.

But, fellow reporter Machado da Graça is less enthusiastic. If Frelimo was really committed to fighting corruption, he says, “they should have started long time ago…I doubt their sincerity (in)…this.”

During the election campaign, Frelimo characterized itself as a “Force for Change”, while Guebuza claimed that a victory for the ruling party would herald further reforms in the public sector.

However, political researcher Marcelo Mosse says Guebeza’s considerable business interests may open the candidate to charges of conflict of interest if he wins the election, particularly in the absence of clear cut rules “that regulate the role of a president-businessman”.

Public apathy about the election becomes more difficult to comprehend if Mozambique’s economic growth rate is considered.

Under President Joachim Chissano, the country has recorded growth averaging seven percent in recent years – substantially higher than the two to three percent in other countries of the Southern African Development Community.

However, some in the business sector argue that this growth will not continue in the long term, because it is largely aid-based.

“There’s no doubt there is economic growth. Mozambicans dress better than in 1994, but the problem is that this growth is not sustainable,” says economist Hipólito Hamela.

To date, government has succeeded in decreasing its dependency on donor funds from 60 to 50 per cent of the state budget. But this is not enough, observes Hamela: “We want more.”

And as impressive as Mozambique’s economic statistics are, the fact remains that many of the country’s citizens still find themselves mired in poverty. According to the latest Human Development Report produced by the United Nations Development Programme, about 38 percent of Mozambicans make do on less than a dollar a day.

Altering this state of affairs will pose a considerable challenge to whoever takes over the presidency in Mozambique. If poverty figures remain unchanged at the next poll in five years time, any champagne that is still doing the rounds will probably taste somewhat sour.

Excerpt:

By IPS Correspondents
MAPUTO, Dec 15 2004 (IPS)

It would come as no surprise to find that Mozambique’s ruling Frelimo party has put champagne bottles on ice. Preliminary results from general elections held earlier this month (Dec. 1 and 2) show that its presidential candidate, Armando Guebuza, has taken a comfortable lead in the poll.

An election official holds up a ballot paper showing presidential contenders. (Photo: AP) Credit: PictureNET Africa

Renamo, together with various smaller opposition parties, is alleging widespread fraud at the polls, and has called for a rerun of the vote.

But while observers agree there were a number of irregularities, they do not appear to believe these affected the outcome of the election. If something could be said to have undermined the legitimacy of the vote, it is that Mozambicans stayed away from polling stations in droves.

With a population estimated at 18 million, Mozambique has 7.5 million registered voters – roughly a third of whom cast ballots on Dec. 1 and 2. This formed a striking contrast to the turnout during previous elections in 1994 and 1999.

Analysts see in this apathy a silent protest about the way that Mozambique is being governed – and a dismissal of opposition claims that it could improve matters.

“There’s a set of factors related to governance that have bred a system that tends to exclude the bulk of Mozambicans,” political analyst Fernando Gonçalves told IPS, adding “The government has not done much to resolve the problems that affect Mozambicans.”

These problems include public corruption and the toll being taken by the AIDS pandemic. As with many other countries in Southern Africa, Mozambique is battling HIV prevalence figures that are in the double digits: the country is presently believed to have an infection rate of almost 15 percent.

In an effort to change the view that graft has taken a firm hold on government, officials introduced a public sector reform programme in 2001. This 10-year initiative aims, amongst other things, to improve public finance management – and the professionalism of civil servants.

As part of the programme, government also commissioned a study about public perceptions of corruption. This document was supposed to have been made public in September, but remained under wraps. Inevitably, suspicions arose that its findings were withheld because they would have damaged Guebuza’s prospects in this month’s poll.

Seasoned journalist Paul Fauvet told IPS that he saw nothing sinister in the delay. “This would not be the first time that government institutions have failed to meet their deadlines,” he said.

But, fellow reporter Machado da Graça is less enthusiastic. If Frelimo was really committed to fighting corruption, he says, “they should have started long time ago…I doubt their sincerity (in)…this.”

During the election campaign, Frelimo characterized itself as a “Force for Change”, while Guebuza claimed that a victory for the ruling party would herald further reforms in the public sector.

However, political researcher Marcelo Mosse says Guebeza’s considerable business interests may open the candidate to charges of conflict of interest if he wins the election, particularly in the absence of clear cut rules “that regulate the role of a president-businessman”.

Public apathy about the election becomes more difficult to comprehend if Mozambique’s economic growth rate is considered.

Under President Joachim Chissano, the country has recorded growth averaging seven percent in recent years – substantially higher than the two to three percent in other countries of the Southern African Development Community.

However, some in the business sector argue that this growth will not continue in the long term, because it is largely aid-based.

“There’s no doubt there is economic growth. Mozambicans dress better than in 1994, but the problem is that this growth is not sustainable,” says economist Hipólito Hamela.

To date, government has succeeded in decreasing its dependency on donor funds from 60 to 50 per cent of the state budget. But this is not enough, observes Hamela: “We want more.”

And as impressive as Mozambique’s economic statistics are, the fact remains that many of the country’s citizens still find themselves mired in poverty. According to the latest Human Development Report produced by the United Nations Development Programme, about 38 percent of Mozambicans make do on less than a dollar a day.

Altering this state of affairs will pose a considerable challenge to whoever takes over the presidency in Mozambique. If poverty figures remain unchanged at the next poll in five years time, any champagne that is still doing the rounds will probably taste somewhat sour.

Excerpt: