By Zoltán Dujisin
KIEV, Dec 27 2004 (IPS)

Western-sponsored exit polls are once again confirming a comfortable victory for opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine’s Dec. 26 presidential runoff.

Yushchenko has already declared victory before supporters in central Kiev. The polls indicate a 10 percent margin in favour of the former prime minister, leading with approximately 56 percent of the votes.

Close to 12,000 international observers monitored the voting but their official conclusions have not been declared.

An OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) observer, speaking on condition of anonymity told IPS that the exit polls "will probably hold true." The observer indicated that "the level of violations so far appears to be much lower than last time."

As Yushenko’s victory begins to materialise, fears arise whether the eastern and more pro-Russian part of the country will react peacefully or not. Unconfirmed rumours speak of supporters of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, the presidential candidate with strong Russian support heading for the capital. But the main concern is over the possibility of separation by the industrial eastern heartland of this country of 48 million.

The last week of campaigning revived the issue of a possible split of the country. In a recent televised presidential debate between the two candidates, Yanukovich said to Yuschenko: "If you win (…) you will only be president of part of Ukraine."

The spectre of separatism has likewise been raised by some of Yanukovich’s important allies, such as his representative in the Central Election Commission Nestor Shufrych, who in the local press compared the independence of states ensuing the fall of the Soviet Union to the situation in the country: "Something similar to this could happen in Ukraine," he warned.

Nonetheless, these threats could be read as part of the political campaign, and might disappear after results are announced, especially considering that the powerful and influential eastern industries are in need of stability.

Yanukovich might attempt to appeal against the election results in the Supreme Court. Popular reaction in Donetsk, Lugansk and other Yanukovich strongholds in the east could prove critical.

Ukrainian analysts downplayed the relevance of last week’s shifting voter preferences, who seem to have further distanced themselves from each other.

A report by an Austrian clinic confirming reports of an attempt to poison Yushchenko came as no surprise to his supporters, and was largely ignored by his opponents. The parliament announced a re-opening of investigations into the incident, but Yushchenko opted not to bring the subject up until after the presidential vote.

Pro-Yushchenko convoys, which had recently headed east with the purpose of luring votes from city-dwellers in the region, were received with hostility by angry Yanukovich supporters. Support for the Prime Minister apparently did not waver in the mainly Russian-speaking areas.

Eastern Ukrainians perceived Yushchenko during the entire campaign as a nationalist threatening minority rights and as a politician servile towards the United States. Yushchenko’s supporters say these positions are a result of heavily biased media in both the Ukraine and Russia.

The recent relative opening of Ukrainian state media is said not to have reached the east, where programmes diverge from those seen in the rest of the country. Russian media, unsympathetic towards the ‘orange revolution’ of Yushchenko has considerable reach in these regions.

Much of the controversy originates from the debate on the number of state official languages. Yanukovich promised to put Russian on equal footing with Ukrainian, while Yushchenko never envisioned the possibility. Many of his allies feel this could endanger the project of building a Ukrainian national identity.

Many Ukrainians feel excluded from that project. They have family ties with Russia, live or travel there frequently, and speak Russian as a mother tongue.. About 20 percent of the Ukrainian population is estimated to be ethnic Russian.

The Kremlin’s poorly covered interference came therefore as no surprise to Ukrainians, who are by no means unaware of the importance Russia attaches to its neighbour, or the "small brother" as it is often called.

After Russia’s favoured candidate for the Ukrainian presidency was rejected by the west and by many Ukrainians, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been forced to alter his position towards the opposition candidate, promising to work with Yushchenko if he is elected president.

Yushchenko responded warmly to Putin. In an attempt to shake off his anti-Russian reputation, he promised that his first official trip as head of state would be to Russia.

Excerpt:

By Zoltán Dujisin
KIEV, Dec 27 2004 (IPS)

Western-sponsored exit polls are once again confirming a comfortable victory for opposition pro-West candidate Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine’s Dec. 26 presidential runoff.

Western-sponsored exit polls are once again confirming a comfortable victory for opposition pro-West candidate Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine’s Dec. 26 presidential runoff.

Yushchenko has already declared victory before supporters in central Kiev. The polls indicate a 10 percent margin in favour of the former prime minister, leading with approximately 56 percent of the votes.

The official result may not be declared for days in the face of possible legal challenges.

Close to 12,000 international observers monitored the voting but their official conclusions have not been declared.

An OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) observer, speaking on condition of anonymity told IPS that the exit polls “will probably hold true.” The observer indicated that “the level of violations so far appears to be much lower than last time.”

The last week of campaigning revived the issue of a possible split of the country. In a recent televised presidential debate between the two candidates, Yanukovich said to Yuschenko: “If you win (…) you will only be president of part of Ukraine.”

The spectre of separatism has likewise been raised by some of Yanukovich’s important allies, such as his representative in the Central Election Commission Nestor Shufrych, who in the local press compared the independence of states ensuing the fall of the Soviet Union to the situation in the country: “Something similar to this could happen in Ukraine,” he warned.

Nonetheless, these threats could be read as part of the political campaign, and might disappear after results are announced, especially considering that the powerful and influential eastern industries are in need of stability.

Yanukovich might attempt to appeal against the election results in the Supreme Court. Popular reaction in Donetsk, Lugansk and other Yanukovich strongholds in the east could prove critical.

Ukrainian analysts downplayed the relevance of last week’s shifting voter preferences, who seem to have further distanced themselves from each other.

A report by an Austrian clinic confirming reports of an attempt to poison Yushchenko came as no surprise to his supporters, and was largely ignored by his opponents. The parliament announced a re-opening of investigations into the incident, but Yushchenko opted not to bring the subject up until after the presidential vote.

Pro-Yushchenko convoys, which had recently headed east with the purpose of luring votes from city-dwellers in the region, were received with hostility by angry Yanukovich supporters. Support for the Prime Minister apparently did not waver in the mainly Russian-speaking areas.

Eastern Ukrainians perceived Yushchenko during the entire campaign as a nationalist threatening minority rights and as a politician servile towards the United States. Yushchenko’s supporters say these positions are a result of heavily biased media in both the Ukraine and Russia.

The recent relative opening of Ukrainian state media is said not to have reached the east, where programmes diverge from those seen in the rest of the country. Russian media, unsympathetic towards the ‘orange revolution’ of Yushchenko has considerable reach in these regions.

Much of the controversy originates from the debate on the number of state official languages. Yanukovich promised to put Russian on equal footing with Ukrainian, while Yushchenko never envisioned the possibility. Many of his allies feel this could endanger the project of building a Ukrainian national identity.

Many Ukrainians feel excluded from that project. They have family ties with Russia, live or travel there frequently, and speak Russian as a mother tongue. About 20 percent of the Ukrainian population is estimated to be ethnic Russian.

The Kremlin’s poorly covered interference came therefore as no surprise to Ukrainians, who are by no means unaware of the importance Russia attaches to its neighbour, or the “small brother” as it is often called.

After Russia’s favoured candidate for the Ukrainian presidency was rejected by the west and by many Ukrainians, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been forced to alter his position towards the opposition candidate, promising to work with Yushchenko if he is elected president.

Yushchenko responded warmly to Putin. In an attempt to shake off his anti-Russian reputation, he promised that his first official trip as head of state would be to Russia.

Excerpt:

By Zoltán Dujisin
KIEV, Dec 26 2004 (IPS)

Western-sponsored exit polls are once again confirming a comfortable victory for opposition pro-West candidate Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine’s Dec. 26 presidential runoff.

Yushchenko has already declared victory before supporters in central Kiev. The polls indicate a 10 percent margin in favour of the former prime minister, leading with approximately 56 percent of the votes.

The official result may not be declared for days in the face of possible legal challenges.

Close to 12,000 international observers monitored the voting but their official conclusions have not been declared.

An OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) observer, speaking on condition of anonymity told IPS that the exit polls “will probably hold true.” The observer indicated that “the level of violations so far appears to be much lower than last time.”

As Yushenko’s victory begins to materialise, fears arise whether the eastern and more pro-Russian part of the country will react peacefully or not. Unconfirmed rumours speak of supporters of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, the presidential candidate with strong Russian support heading for the capital. But the main concern is over the possibility of separation by the industrial eastern heartland of this country of 48 million.

The last week of campaigning revived the issue of a possible split of the country. In a recent televised presidential debate between the two candidates, Yanukovich said to Yuschenko: “If you win (…) you will only be president of part of Ukraine.”

The spectre of separatism has likewise been raised by some of Yanukovich’s important allies, such as his representative in the Central Election Commission Nestor Shufrych, who in the local press compared the independence of states ensuing the fall of the Soviet Union to the situation in the country: “Something similar to this could happen in Ukraine,” he warned.

Nonetheless, these threats could be read as part of the political campaign, and might disappear after results are announced, especially considering that the powerful and influential eastern industries are in need of stability.

Yanukovich might attempt to appeal against the election results in the Supreme Court. Popular reaction in Donetsk, Lugansk and other Yanukovich strongholds in the east could prove critical.

Ukrainian analysts downplayed the relevance of last week’s shifting voter preferences, who seem to have further distanced themselves from each other.

A report by an Austrian clinic confirming reports of an attempt to poison Yushchenko came as no surprise to his supporters, and was largely ignored by his opponents. The parliament announced a re-opening of investigations into the incident, but Yushchenko opted not to bring the subject up until after the presidential vote.

Pro-Yushchenko convoys, which had recently headed east with the purpose of luring votes from city-dwellers in the region, were received with hostility by angry Yanukovich supporters. Support for the Prime Minister apparently did not waver in the mainly Russian-speaking areas.

Eastern Ukrainians perceived Yushchenko during the entire campaign as a nationalist threatening minority rights and as a politician servile towards the United States. Yushchenko’s supporters say these positions are a result of heavily biased media in both the Ukraine and Russia.

The recent relative opening of Ukrainian state media is said not to have reached the east, where programmes diverge from those seen in the rest of the country. Russian media, unsympathetic towards the ‘orange revolution’ of Yushchenko has considerable reach in these regions.

Much of the controversy originates from the debate on the number of state official languages. Yanukovich promised to put Russian on equal footing with Ukrainian, while Yushchenko never envisioned the possibility. Many of his allies feel this could endanger the project of building a Ukrainian national identity.

Many Ukrainians feel excluded from that project. They have family ties with Russia, live or travel there frequently, and speak Russian as a mother tongue. About 20 percent of the Ukrainian population is estimated to be ethnic Russian.

The Kremlin’s poorly covered interference came therefore as no surprise to Ukrainians, who are by no means unaware of the importance Russia attaches to its neighbour, or the “small brother” as it is often called.

After Russia’s favoured candidate for the Ukrainian presidency was rejected by the west and by many Ukrainians, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been forced to alter his position towards the opposition candidate, promising to work with Yushchenko if he is elected president.

Yushchenko responded warmly to Putin. In an attempt to shake off his anti-Russian reputation, he promised that his first official trip as head of state would be to Russia.

Excerpt: