By Suvendrini Kakuchi
TOKYO, Mar 15 2005 (IPS)

New saber-rattling between China and Taiwan over a law passed by Beijing Monday that allows the use of military force if Taiwan declares independence from China has raised tensions further in North-east Asia – a region that is already simmering in territorial and historical disputes.

This dispute, in what has been termed as one of the world’s most dangerous potential flashpoints, comes at a time when South Korean lawmakers are planning a controversial visit on Thursday to an uninhabited island chain called Takeshima, that is claimed by both South Korea and Japan.

On Monday, two South Korean demonstrators in Seoul each cut off a finger in protest against Japan’s claim to the cluster of islands. Other demonstrators burned Japanese flags and scuffled with police.

South Korea says it considers sovereignty over the islands more important than good relations with Japan.

At the same time, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned Tokyo against interfering in Beijing’s relations with rival Taiwan and said Japan should try to improve its troubled relations with China.

”There are obstacles to this relationship, especially in the political sphere,” Wen said. ”The fundamental problem is that Japan should correctly view history.”

Beijing still deeply resents Japan’s military conquest of China in the 1930s and 1940s and what the Chinese see as Tokyo’s reluctance to atone for its aggression. China has been further incensed by annual visits by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to a shrine that honors war criminals as well as the nation’s war dead.

”Sentiments are high in this part of the world but the tense situation also symbolises the exact positions of the countries in the region when it comes to their political agendas,” said Toshio Nagahisa, a senior researcher on the East Asia region at the respected private Tokyo- based PHP Research Institute.

Analysts contend the recent flexing of muscles between China, the two Koreas and Japan reflect the consequences of the growing economic might of China and South Korea – two countries that now pose a threat to Japan’s previously unchallenged power in Asia.

”Japan as the second richest economy in the world and with a close alliance to the United States, previously could call the political shots in Asia because of its economic clout. That picture has now changed drastically with the rise of China the past decade as well as South Korea’s policy of working closely with North Korea,” Harumi Arima, a political writer, pointed out.

Experts also link Monday’s tough reaction in Beijing to recent moves in Tokyo to set up a tightly knit security alliance with the United States in the form of joint declaration that declared Taiwan as a common security issue.

”It’s pretty obvious that Beijing by sending a warning to Taiwan is making an attempt to show Tokyo and Washington that China will not be intimidated by foreign powers,” PHP’s Nagahisa told IPS.

Last month Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura and Defence Minister Yoshinori Ono joined U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in declaring security in the Taiwan Strait as a ”common strategic objective”. Tokyo has also voiced its disapproval over China’s high defense spending.

Beijing has been expanding its military arsenal aggressively including sending a nuclear submarine into waters around Japan’s southernmost islands last November.

On the Japanese front, too, there are moves to indicate that Tokyo is moving away from its post-war pacifism that was the mainstay of its defense policy for the past 60 years.

Japan’s post-war constitution forever renounces war, and its soldiers have not fired a shot in conflict since 1945. But many Japanese feel their government has already gone too far when it pushed through legislation in 2003 to allow it to send troops to Iraq to support U.S. forces there.

The 550-strong contingent is only there to help rebuild the nation, not to fight. But many fear it could get drawn into conflict in what is, in reality, still a combat zone.

In December, Tokyo brushed aside criticism from Beijing when it issued a visa to former Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui. Japan insisted that Lee was visiting as a private citizen and therefore his trip did not violate Tokyo’s ban on official contacts with Taiwan.

Recently, Japan also irked China when it announced that Tokyo would stop yen loans to the Chinese government despite the aid playing a key role in Chinese economic development.

Bilateral relations with South Korea, too, have reached a new low with Japan’s past harsh colonisation of the Korean peninsula rearing its ugly head again.

South Korea and Japan had planned to celebrate 40 years of diplomatic relations this year. The governments wanted to emphasise their strong economic links and warming cultural ties.

But the goodwill has been swept aside in a furious Korean reaction to renewed Japanese claims to the disputed islands.

”Japan must make the truth of the past known and offer sincere apologies and, if necessary, pay compensation. Only then can we be reconciled,” said South Korean President Roh Moo- hyun in a speech on Mar. 1 to mark the anniversary of a 1919 uprising against Japanese colonialists.

”Japan should take a more positive attitude with a belief that before it is a legal issue, this is an issue of universal ethics in a human society and a matter of trust between neighbours,” Roh said, indicating that Tokyo should follow the example of Germany.

Analysts, however, worry that no breakthroughs are in sight to quell the present tensions in the region.

”Japan’s diplomacy that once relied heavily on the United States, is now like a triangle with the same alliance as its base and China now appearing as an extra,” said Prof. Toshiaki Shikata, who teaches international security at Teikyo University.

Shikata rejected the threat of a war breaking out in the region but said the jostling for power will intensify further as China’s expanding economy begins to demand more oil and natural resources from around the world, forcing the huge country to make a place for itself in the global order.

”As a result, the emerging security picture will be a tense one,” he added.

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