By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Jun 1 2005 (IPS)

Burma’s top military leader Senior General Than Shwe has strengthened his control over the army and government through a major shake-up of the army. But as a probe into the recent bomb blasts in the capital fails to make progress, exposing the military’s in-fighting and weaknesses, many in Rangoon believe major changes are in the air.

The country’s number two man in green, Deputy Senior General Maung Aye, was effectively demoted late in May when army chief General Thura Shwe Mann was promoted to the same rank, according to western diplomatic sources in Rangoon.

More significantly, the army has now been divided into two supreme commands. Thura Shwe Mann is in charge of the most important division, the northern region, while Maung Aye has been left as chief of the southern region, say diplomats.

Tensions have existed between the top two military leaders for some time after the sacking of the prime minister, General Khin Nyunt, last October. “Maung Aye has been trying to increase his power and influence rather than trying to oust (his rival) Than Shwe,” according to an Asian diplomat who regularly deals with the regime.

But after months of deadlock over the proposed promotions and changes to the 12 powerful regional commanders, Than Shwe has turned the tables and edged out the man he regards as his main rival. At least six of the regional commanders have been moved around.

Many of these changes apparently represent Than Shwe’s concern to have his trusted generals placed in commands close to Rangoon. The army shake-up was ordered during the latest quarterly meeting of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), in late May.

The meeting took place as the army continues to try to unravel who was responsible for three major bomb blasts in the middle of Rangoon three weeks ago.

Although the junta says less than 20 people died in the explosion, there were more than 60 victims, including several soldiers.

The explosions at several key commercial centres in the heart of Rangoon have rattled the regime. So stunned and shocked are Burma’s military leaders that they are lashing out at everyone: ethnic rebel groups, students, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Thailand have all been blamed.

“The regime is still in the dark as to who was behind the bombs and are chasing their tails,” said another Asian diplomat in Rangoon.

Than Shwe has taken control of the investigations, but his protégé, Rangoon commander and head of the new military intelligence branch, General Myint Swe, is in charge of the day-to-day operations with the help of the 11th Light Infantry Division based in the capital.

“The generals do not seem to trust the police to investigate the incident,” according to Thai military intelligence sources.

So shocked is the regime that it has sought assistance from a former senior military intelligence officer, Major General Kyaw Win, who was deputy intelligence chief until his boss, prime minister General Khin Nyunt, was arrested and his supporters purged.

But the regime has shunned offers of assistance from abroad, rejecting Thailand’s help in the investigation and Washington’s private offer of Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) forensic expertise. But Chinese experts are helping behind the scenes, according to sources in Rangoon.

Many diplomats in the capital believe the regime will never really discover who was responsible for the bombs. Since the blasts there have been rumours of other bombs being discovered and defused in time. Yet a climate of fear exists in Rangoon.

“Every one is too frightened to talk, businessmen are keeping quiet and several top policemen are lying low and trying to get up-country for cover,” says a foreign businessman with close links to the regime. Several other businessmen have been arrested and are being interrogated in the country’s infamous Insein Prison.

In past weeks threats of fresh bomb attacks have emerged in Rangoon, while flights in and out of the city are searched thoroughly for explosives.

The capital has become eerily empty since the blasts. Far fewer people than usual dare to step out to shop at the supermarkets, eat at restaurants or attend parties, according to Rangoon residents. Taxis drivers are complaining that there are few potential customers.

The country’s military rulers are pre-occupied with the probe so the two top generals, Than Shwe and Maung Aye, have reportedly put aside their differences for now. “Thura Shwe Mann’s recent promotion has not been announced because Maung Aye wants it delayed,” according to a military analyst in Rangoon.

But further changes to the ruling SPDC and the Cabinet are also in the pipeline, according to Burmese government officials. So far six regional commanders have been shuffled, but the key posts, including the crucial post of Rangoon commander, remain unchanged.

The changes now are almost certain to see Maung Aye’s people replaced by Than Shwe loyalists – though without reducing the fine balance of power between the men.

“The present delay means that the two top men cannot agree on who should get the key positions,” said a South East Asian diplomat who has dealt with Burma’s leaders for years. But it is only a matter of time before the new power shift emerges with the army chief Thura Shwe Mann taking a pivotal role, he added.

Over the last six months there have been several major shake-ups of the Cabinet, with ministers close to the former intelligence chief Khin Nyunt purged. The intelligence apparatus was completely dismantled.

Thousands of former intelligence officers and foot soldiers are out of work and desperate, while 40 of Khin Nyunt’s top officers and aides have been sentenced to more than 100 years in jail for economic crimes and have had most of their valuables, including their wives’ jewellery confiscated.

The witch-hunt against Khin Nyunt loyalists has upset many in the military and police, who are convinced that most of the charges are trumped up and part of a campaign against the former military intelligence and their networks.

“It’s a form of cannibalism – the army is eating its own flesh,” said a retired Burmese military officer.

This has all contributed to growing resentment within military and government. “All we are doing is putting innocent people in jail,” a policeman investigating one of Khin Nyunt’s senior generals confided to friends.

This growing disillusionment within the army has been fuelled by the recent bomb blasts and the failure to find the culprits quickly. The military’s trumpeted strength has also been severely undermined.

Soldiers have stepped up security around Rangoon, especially at the city’s hotels and shopping arcades, but the mood remains one of suspicion, fear and uncertainty.

Many Burmese liken the atmosphere to that in the period before pro-democracy demonstrations erupted in 1988. “Burma may be about to implode in the same way the authoritarian Eastern European regimes did more than a decade ago,” predicts a senior European diplomat in Rangoon.

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