By Sanjay Suri
LONDON, Jul 2 2005 (IPS)

Little change should be expected on climate change at the G8 summit, chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Dr Rajendra K Pachauri told IPS in an interview.

"Frankly I don’t think we should have very high expectations of a single event like this," said Pachauri. "What would be far more important than anything that happens at the summit is the desire and decisions to keep moving and to engage in a dialogue on a regular basis, because I think a lot will have to be done after the summit."

Pachauri’s IPCC was formed in 1998 to assess the growing information on climate change, including its potential impacts and possible options to reduce or at least live with those effects.

Leaders of the G8 countries (the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia) will meet in the Scottish golf resort Gleneagles July 6-8. Before the summit, host Britain has made addressing climate change one of the two main agenda issues, along with the development of Africa.

While Britain is seeking a particular push on climate change by leaders of some of the most developed countries, further UN negotiations are due to begin later this year on action after the first implementation period of the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012.

Under the protocol – signed in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 – the most industrialised countries commit themselves to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2 percent by 2012 relative to 1990 levels. Greenhouse gases, principally carbon dioxide and methane, are believed to warm the atmosphere, leading to a disruption of the climate pattern.

The first implementation period for steps under the pact is 2008-2012. Ahead of the UN negotiations on what happens to the protocol after that, Pachauri said ongoing G8 interest in climate change could itself be a contribution. "If the leaders of the most powerful countries in the world were to decide that they’re going to remain engaged, I think that would be a very favourable outcome."

The Kyoto Protocol is set to become a highly contentious issue after demands that developing countries such as India, China and Mexico also commit themselves to cut emissions along with the industrialised countries.

The World Bank’s senior advisor on sustainable development, Ken Newcombe, told a meeting in Paris in June, "a new global climate management regime must include limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases in rapidly industrialising countries such as India, China, Mexico and Brazil."

But Pachauri says there is no case for this. "Historically it is the developed countries that have caused the problem," he said. "Also, in per capita terms, China, India and the developing countries emit a very small fraction of what the developed countries emit. So there is clearly no basis for China and India to be brought under the same kind of regime as the developed countries."

What developed countries could consider is transferring technology to developing countries to help reduce emissions, Pachauri said. "They could provide finance or grants for implementing projects, and also ensure there is much more exchange between scientists, between policy makers, by which information can flow in both directions."

"I think we need to set up a cooperative mechanism by which things could move in the right direction," he added.

Pachauri said any agreements on climate change can have only a limited effect. "Climate change is here to stay," he said. "Even if the world takes very ambitious steps to clean up greenhouse gases, the inertia in the system will ensure that climate change continues. We have to find ways by which we can counter the effects of climate change.."

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