The deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon saw a sharp reduction this year, but the future is uncertain, and there is no assurance that this positive trend will continue, say environmentalists and researchers. The data suggest that the decline in deforestation could be maintained, concentrating efforts between June and August, the critical period for the destruction, said Carlos Souza, head of the Institute of Man and the Environment in the Amazon, IMAZON.

Other activists believe the victory is temporary, if the government does not adopt structural measures. The reduced rate of deforestation was a lucky coincidence of factors: low international prices for soybeans and beef, which slowed down the expansion of the agricultural frontier, they say.

The government announced in late August that the area deforested in the 11 months ending in July fell to 9,106 square km, half that of the previous period.

IMAZON, however, estimated total deforestation at 16,000 square km, counting the 12 months ending in July, for a decline of 38 percent. “It remains unacceptable. We have only returned to the average of the 1990s,” commented Souza.