By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Nov 4 2005 (IPS)

Burma’s military rulers have not yet decided to quit the International Labour Organisation, according to Burmese foreign minister Nyan Win.

”The government has not decided whether or not it will withdraw from the ILO,” Nyan Win told IPS in an exclusive interview on Friday while in Bangkok to attend a regional summit.

Burma is definitely not leaving the ILO, Thailand’s Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra also told journalists after talking to his Burmese counterpart, General Soe Win.

Two weeks ago, an ILO mission to Rangoon was told that the government had decided to leave the U.N. labour body. A letter of notice had been written and was ready to be sent, the Burmese labour minister told Francis Maupain, special adviser to the ILO’s Director General.

But until the ILO chief Juan Somavia receives the letter, Burma remains a member of the ILO.

During his visit to Rangoon, Maupain only met the labour minister, the Burmese foreign minister stressed and the labour minister was only expressing his own views, Nyan Win explained. The Burmese government makes decisions on a collective basis and the final decision on whether to withdraw from the ILO had not been made, he insisted.

Diplomats in Rangoon had been told earlier by both the labour minister and the foreign minister that the government was waiting to see what happened at the meeting of the ILO Governing Body in Geneva later this month, before sending the formal notice that Burma was withdrawing from the ILO.

But unless the ILO withdrew its threat of sanctions, Rangoon would have no alternative but to leave.

Before the ILO mission to Rangoon, the cabinet had discussed and agreed on the decision to leave the ILO, according to Rangoon-based diplomats. Now that both the prime minister and the foreign minister appear to be distancing themselves from the threat to leave the ILO, it may mean that the top military rulers are having second thoughts.

The recent revelations about lurid death threats sent to the ILO representative in Rangoon have angered many of the top generals. This may also have caused them to reconsider withdrawing from the ILO. Many of Rangoon’s allies, especially Beijing, have been annoyed by Burma’s threat to quit the body.

The Burmese foreign minister also confirmed that the country’s National Convention will reconvene on Dec. 5 to complete drafting guidelines for the new constitution. The Convention adjourned some seven months ago after discussing the principles of the new constitution for six weeks. More than a thousand hand-picked delegates have been meeting intermittently for more than a decade preparing the new constitution.

The constitution will then be drafted by a legal committee selected by the Attorney General and the National Convention Convening Committee, Nyan Win said. He refused to comment on why the political parties had been excluded from the process.

The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) have boycotted the constitutional talks since they resumed in earnest in May 2004. The NLD insists they cannot consider participating while their leader remains under house arrest.

The government says National Convention is the first step in their roadmap to democracy. The foreign minister confirmed that this would be the final session of the National Convention, but said he was unable to give a timetable. ”That is for the delegates at the National Convention to decide,” he said.

Some analysts believe the government intends to wind up the process by the end of the year. ”We have been told it will be a short session with no discussion; we will only be able to say yes or no,” a senior leader of the ethnic Kachin rebel group that is participating in the National Convention told IPS.

But recently, there have been hints for government ministers that the discussions may last several weeks at least. ”It’s up to Senior General Than Shwe when the National Convention concludes and its unclear what he wants to finish quickly to keep the pro-democracy parties guessing and because of his ill health or drag it out further to give the regime more time to plan,” said the independent Burmese analyst Win Min.

The draft constitution will then have to be approved by a national referendum. ”This will be a free and fair vote like the referendum for the 1974 constitution,” Nyan Win told the Bangkok Post.

Many Rangoon-based diplomats believe the regime intends to hold mass rallies throughout the country, sponsored by the government’s community organisation, the Union Solidarity Development Association, which will show their support for the constitution.

”The vote on the 1974 constitution was neither free nor fair. Electors had an option of either casting their ballots in boxes marked yes or no,” said the constitutional expert and legal adviser to the Burma Lawyers’ Council, Janelle Saffin.

”But it was marginally fairer than a show of hands at a government-organised mass meeting,” she said. The danger is that even if the system is used, the ballot boxes will be stuffed, according to the analyst Win Min.

The regime should follow the U.N. guidelines on referenda if it wants to ensure the vote is truly free and fair, Saffin suggested.

It is too early to say whether the NLD will be allowed to participate in the elections that will be held under the new constitution. ”We’ll just have to wait and see,” Win Min said. The NLD convincingly won the last elections in 1990, but the military regime has continued to hang onto power ever since.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s detention is due to come up for renewal later this month. But the Burmese foreign minister refused to comment on whether it would be extended for a further year. No one believes the pro-democracy leader will be released any time soon and she is likely to remain under house arrest until after any future elections.

The Burmese government is not concerned about international sanctions or threats to have the U.N. Security Council discuss ways to push Burma’s military leaders to respect human rights and implement political reforms. ”Unwarranted pressure will only delay the process,” he said.

”We have good relations with all our neighbours and that is what is important, especially China, India and Thailand,” the Burmese foreign minister said.

He was in Bangkok to attend the summit of the four Mekong countries, and attended by the leaders of Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand.

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