By Suvendrini Kakuchi
TOKYO, Dec 28 2005 (IPS)

Sino-Japanese relations, already cold, are expected to turn frostier in 2006 despite the rapidly growing economic ties between the two Asian majors that are jockeying for power and influence in the region, say analysts.

”Basically, 2006 will see a two-tiered bilateral relationship between Japan and China. Their economies are tightly bound but politically their hearts are far apart ,” says Tetsuya Kodama, a veteran China watcher and former head of the China Friendship Association.

Japan, the leading economic powerhouse in developing Asia, had become used to ruling the Asian roost for decades until China’s spectacular growth began in the mid-nineties.

Today, experts say, Japan is yet to come to terms with the economic rise of a China that not only boasts double-digit growth but also has the world’s largest population of 1.2 billion people, as well as a mighty military and a leadership that displays strong nationalist sentiment.

”The emergence of China into the international limelight represents a painful situation for Japan that has a bigger economy and is also treated as a mature partner in the West. Japan must find a path to accept this regional shift in politics,” explains Kodama.

According to Asia watchers, Japan’s popular Junichiro Koizumi’s administration is not taking the right steps to meet developments in the region.

Harumi Arata, a political analyst, points to Koizumi’s repeated visits to the Yasukuni shrine – where lie buried Japan’s war criminals responsible for the invasion and colonisation of China, the Korean peninsula and most of Asia before Japan’s defeat at the end of World War ll.

China and South Korea react bitterly everytime Koizumi visits Yasukuni, calling his acts a sign of Japan’s lack of remorse for its past. Koizumi denies this allegation and insists on visiting the shrine.

And when Koizumi steps down from office in September, his likely successor, Shinzo Abe, who is also highly admired in Japan, will continue paying homage to what conservatives regard as war heroes.

”In the area of the economy we have good relations with China as well as with South Korea,” Koizumi was quoted saying last week. But he added that Japan would not ‘’allow foreign countries to instruct us on how to pay our respects and pray for the souls of our war dead.”

Kodama contends that such high voltage comments are an indication of how Japanese leaders are strengthening their bargaining power in Asian politics.

Koizumi who is spearheading reforms – that include changing the postwar peace constitution to allow militarisation of the country- visualises an active role for Japan in geopolitics and wants China to acknowledge that, says Kodama.

A pillar of the new Japanese goal is its rock-hard alliance with the United States, forged in order to meet the challenge from China. Analysts say the consequences of that policy will be visible in the coming year.

”It is silly to think Asia will grow safer against a backdrop where the leaders of Japan and China have stopped talking to each other. If Koizumi expects us to think that working with the U.S. will achieve Asian unity, then he is wrong,” says Kodama.

A clear example of how China is reacting was available during the first East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur, on Dec. 14, when Chinese premier Wen Jiabao pointedly avoided Koizumi.

To deal with the new competing nationalism in East Asia, a Korean analyst in Tokyo, Chi Jung-Kwan, says Japan, already confident as it works with Washington, will be reaching out to India as a further means of balancing the rise of China.

Foreign Minister, Taro Aso, another hardliner, is scheduled to visit India and Pakistan in the first week of January, setting the stage for what may unfold in 2006.

Foreign ministry spokesman, Akira Chiba, said the trip is meant to convey the importance Japan is placing on its relations with both countries, but especially India.

Koizumi met his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh in Kuala Lumpur and the two agreed to work together for East Asia cooperation as well as on reforms in the U.N. Security Council – both countries aspire for permanent seats in the body.

”India is an important partner for Japanese business and well as Asian affairs,” said Chiba.

According to Chiba, Japan will broaden its horizons in Asia to stem damage from the falling out with its East Asian neighbours and also place its bets with the U.S. to ensure that the power scale will not tip in favour of China.

Meanwhile, experts have started working on aspects where Japanese relations with China are making progress.

This week, the government created a panel chaired by Koizumi that has declared that, by 2010, Japan would forge separate economic partnership agreements with China, South Korea and South-east Asian countries as part of its initiative to promote regional economic integration and create an East Asian community.

The government has also earmarked a special budget for cultural exchanges with China to foster better bilateral understanding.

Prof. Kazuya Sakamoto from Osaka University who heads an official panel to promote this aspect of Japanese diplomacy, defines the policy as incorporating patriotic and nationalistic impulses into the framework of a “rational” foreign policy.

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