By Vesna Peric Zimonjic
BELGRADE, Jan 23 2006 (IPS)

A stable future for Kosovo, the southern Serbian province that aspires for independence and hopes to reach it through United Nations sponsored talks, looks less certain after the death of its first president, Ibrahim Rugova.

Rugova (61), died of lung cancer last Saturday in Kosovan capital Pristina. His death left the province with a complex legacy of several unresolved issues.

The first is about his successor. The president of the parliament, Nechat Daci (61), will stand in until the election of a new president. But a harsh political battle is expected for that post.

Another is the issue of the UN-sponsored talks with Serbia that were due to begin Jan. 25 in Vienna. Rugova was to head the Kosovo delegation. The talks have now been postponed to an unspecified date in February.

Head of the UN administration Soren Jessen Petersen has expressed concern over the internal situation in Kosovo.

At a commemorative session of parliament on Sunday, he called for calm, reminding local political leaders that “the aim Rugova dedicated his life was that of a free Kosovo.”

“It is a vision whose realisation remains in the hands of you, Kosovo’s political leaders, whose unity and commitment to Mr Rugova’s mission will be vital in the coming months,” he added.

“This is crucial time for Kosovo, the most important moment since 1999,” analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu told IPS.

He was referring to the fact that the southern Serbian province has been practically under UN administration since the time the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) bombing of Serbia ended. That bombing was undertaken due to the repression of two million ethnic Albanians in Kosovo by the regime of former president Slobodan Milosevic.

“No political leader has enough support among their parties to become president,” Spahiu added.

Under the provisional constitution, the Kosovo president is elected by the parliament, and must come from the political party that won the general election.

Rugova was from the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo (DPK). His party was prominent in its passive resistance to Serbia’s regime since 1990, and Rugova was its undisputed leader.

Spahiu says more aggressive leaders from other parties may contest for the post, making the negotiations with Belgrade more complicated.

Among them is the charismatic leader of the armed rebellion against Serbia in 1998, Hashim Thaci (37). Former guerrilla leader turned politician, and regarded as war hero by many because he headed the Kosovo Liberation Army, he is expected to try to gain the post.

Another aspiring candidate may be Veton Surroi (43), a rich businessman, former journalist and owner of Koha Ditore daily and the KTV television network. He was an outspoken critic of Belgrade repression, but did not take to the arms in 1998-99.

There is also Prime Minister Bajram Kosumi (45) from the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo party. Kosumi made his career in the shadow of Ramush Haradinaj, whom he replaced as premier when Haradinaj was accused of war crimes by the UN war crimes tribunal based at The Hague in the Netherlands.

Serb media which is not ready to accept the independence of Kosovo, has been guarded in its comments. But the media did report a statement by U.S. analyst Daniel Server who said he expected the situation in the province to “radicalise” due to the imminent power struggle among political leaders who will want Rugova’s post.

“It looks like there will be a significant fight for power, and the outcome is still unknown,” he said in his comment. Server says leaders with a wartime background will have a better chance, which will make negotiations with Belgrade more difficult.

Sanda Raskovic Ivic, Serb minister for Kosovo gave the official position.

“Although Rugova fathered the idea of independent Kosovo, his ways of obtaining the goal excluded aggressive actions and the war option,” Ivic told Belgrade media. If the “armed bureaucracy” were to take charge, they could “incite unrest and violence to achieve independence.”

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