By Constanza Vieira
BOGOTA, Jan 3 2006 (IPS)

“Under Uribe there will be no humanitarian exchange” of prisoners for hostages, according to a statement released Monday by the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

The communiqué confirmed what a source close to the insurgents told IPS on Friday: “FARC will not negotiate with (President) Álvaro Uribe.”

Opinion polls show that a majority of Colombians support rightwing President Uribe, who will seek reelection next May, as well as a swap of hostages held by FARC – including former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, a number of other politicians, members of the armed forces, and three U.S. military contractors – for around 500 imprisoned guerrillas.

The longest-held hostages – two members of the military – have been in the jungle for eight years as of December. Betancourt and her former vice presidential running-mate Clara Rojas will have been held captive for four years as of Feb. 23.

FARC’s statement put an end to a rumour that began to be reported by the media on Dec. 23, according to which the insurgent group was interested in studying an initiative designed by a neutral commission made up of representatives from France, Spain and Switzerland, to facilitate a face-to-face meeting between the two sides, in order to negotiate a humanitarian swap of prisoners for hostages.

The rumour “came out of the government palace,” Juan Carlos Lecompte, Betancourt’s husband, remarked to IPS with indignation.

Because of the speculation, which even talked about the possible imminent release of Betancourt, her husband cut short his year-end holiday in France with the two teenage children of the former candidate, who has dual French-Colombian nationality.

The proposal presented on Dec. 12 by the three mediator countries included clearing out the security forces and guerrillas from a 180 square kilometer area in southwestern Colombia, where the security of the negotiators from both sides would be left in the hands of an international commission.

Uribe made sure that the media gave heavy coverage of his approval of the proposal for talks about a humanitarian swap, even though his government has traditionally ensured the greatest secrecy for negotiations with the irregular armed groups.

Secrecy has surrounded the ongoing negotiations with the extreme-right wing United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC), which have led to the demobilisation of thousands of paramilitary fighters, as well as the recent preliminary talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN).

Representatives of the ELN – the second-largest leftist insurgent group involved in Colombia’s four-decade civil war- and the Uribe administration met last month in Havana to explore the possibility of future peace talks. The outcome of the meeting was not divulged.

The international mediators said the initiative for a prisoner-for-hostage swap would be simultaneously presented to the government and the guerrillas. But in the FARC communiqué, dated Dec. 29, the rebel group said it was not yet familiar with the content of the proposal.

The publicity given to a proposal which was believed to be confidential by its authors led to criticism of the government for putting the initiative at risk, with some critics complaining that the issue of a humanitarian swap should not be used in an attempt to boost support for Uribe in the run-up to the elections.

The FARC communiqué stated that “The country needs a president with the political will not only to carry out a humanitarian swap, but to negotiate with the insurgents – with the participation of the people – a solution to the conflict based on structural social, economic and political changes that would benefit the majorities.”

A member of the national executive committee of the Social and Political Front (FSP) – a movement that forms part of a new leftist alliance, the Alternative Democratic Pole – told IPS that the statement by the guerrillas was apparently aimed at getting “those who are in favour of a humanitarian exchange to fight the reelection of Uribe.”

The public at large, and the families of the hostages in particular, are in favour of a swap, similar to several that have been successfully carried out under previous administrations.

The guerrillas also criticised “the president’s rash, hasty actions” taken “in his eagerness to exploit the proposal for electoral purposes, which have thrown the entire diplomatic effort overboard.”

With five months to go to the presidential elections, no strong opposition candidate has yet emerged.

On Friday, a spokesman for the Bolivarian Movement, a civilian organisation created by the FARC to represent its supporters, did not leave much room for optimism with respect to the release of Betancourt and her fellow hostages, commenting to IPS that “The swap could take four years.”

He predicted that over the next year, the proposals of the international commission of mediators will give rise to constant counterproposals, until an agreement between the two sides is finally reached.

But after that, the most complex part of the exchange will begin, according to the source, “because the first thing FARC will do is ask for ‘Simón’ and ‘Sonia’.”

He was referring to insurgent commander ‘Simón Trinidad’, who was captured in Quito, Ecuador while making efforts to bring about a humanitarian swap, and to Sonia, a campesina guerrilla fighter. Both were extradited by the Uribe administration to the United States, where they are facing trial.

Because of the extraditions, “Uribe lost authority for negotiating a swap,” which will not occur until the president “convinces the gringos to give back ‘Trinidad’ and ‘Sonia’,” he added.

Colombia’s counterinsurgency policy is financed by the United States and supported by U.S. military advisers. This country is the third largest recipient of U.S. military aid, after Israel and Egypt, and Washington’s diplomatic mission in Bogota is the most numerous of any of its missions around the globe.

But according to Alfredo Rangel, an expert on military issues and candidate to the Senate on a pro-Uribe slate, not all is lost.

“FARC could release all of the hostages except for the three gringos, and carry out a separate negotiation (for them). It is in the best interest of both sides to carry out separate negotiations, rather than mixing them,” he said.

In his view, the release of the Colombian hostages should be negotiated as a package deal, and the release of the three U.S. military contractors should be negotiated separately, in exchange for the extradited insurgents.

The analyst agrees that international mediation is the right way to go, in order to bring about a swap. “The problem is when. This is a political trial of strength. FARC will benefit politically, but so will the government. Who will benefit the most at any given time? That is the dilemma, which makes the elections a critical reference point,” he told IPS.

In response to the FARC communiqué, Uribe once again brought up on Monday the possibility of attempting to rescue the hostages by force, an option that is staunchly opposed by all of the hostages’ families.

On May 5, 2003, a rescue attempt by government forces ended tragically when the guerrilla captors obeyed standing orders from above to kill the hostages in case the military closed in.

A number of hostages – the then governor of the northwestern department (province) of Antioquia, Guillermo Gaviria, his peace adviser, former defence minister Gilberto Echeverri, and eight members of the military – were killed in the failed rescue attempt.

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