By Adam Morrow
CAIRO, Jan 14 2006 (IPS)

The recent admission of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon into a Jerusalem hospital after suffering a massive stroke has left Egyptians wondering what effects this will have on the relationship between Egypt and Israel.

With Sharon’s recent move to quit the rightist Likud party to form a new, more centrist party, many Egyptians fear that Israeli policymaking could fall into the hands of a less predictable – and perhaps more aggressive – political leadership.

“Most Egyptians are happy (about Sharon’s illness), because Sharon is widely seen as one of the biggest enemies of the Arabs,” Magdy Samaan, journalist with the independent Arabic language daily Al-Masry Al-Youm told IPS. “But many are also worried that after Sharon a more radical leader could come along, making things worse for the Palestinians and Egypt.”

The Israeli Prime Minister was admitted into Jerusalem’s Hadassah hospital in a coma Jan. 4 after suffering his second stroke in two weeks. He was earlier said to be in critical condition, but doctors said Friday that his condition had improved to “serious but stable.”

Few believe that Sharon will return to his duties as prime minister. In the interim, the premiership has passed to Sharon’s deputy Ehud Olmert.

With Israeli elections scheduled for late March that will pit Sharon’s nascent Kadima Party against challengers from the Likud and Labour parties, Israel’s near-term political orientation remains far from clear. Many analysts predict a victory for Likud chief Benyamin Netanyahu, prime minister from 1996 to 1999.

Netanyahu, a relative hardliner who vehemently opposed the recent Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, stands against any territorial concessions to the Palestinians, or the creation of a Palestinian state of any kind.

“A Netanyahu government would likely mean a widespread…resumption of the theft of Palestinian land and the building of yet more Jewish settlements,” said Egypt’s government-run English-language Al-Ahram Weekly.

Some analysts say Sharon’s absence from the political scene, and an expected change in the Israeli leadership could lead to a deterioration of Egypt-Israel diplomatic relations, which have experienced a conspicuous warming.

“Over the last year, Cairo’s relationship with Tel Aviv has improved considerably,” Emad Gad, an expert on Israeli affairs at the state-run Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies told IPS. “Egypt went from regularly calling Sharon a ‘butcher’ to calling him ‘a brave man’, a ‘peacemaker’ and the only one strong enough to impose peace on the Palestinians.”

Any Israeli shift to the right “could end up re-freezing this gradual trend towards diplomatic warming, and we’ll see a return to the ‘cold peace’ that marked the bilateral relationship when Netanyahu was last prime minister,” Gad said.

Israeli officials, however, downplay the notion that the Egypt-Israel relationship stands to suffer from potential changes in leadership.

“Officially, a phone call was made by President (Hosni) Mubarak to acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert,” a spokesperson at the Israeli embassy in Cairo told IPS. “One thing that was emphasised was that they (the Egyptian government) are wishing for a speedy recovery for Prime Minister Sharon. The call also emphasised that bilateral relations will not be hurt; that the good relationship formed would not be hurt.”

A source at the Egyptian ministry of foreign affairs denied any immediate effect of Sharon’s illness on bilateral relations. He said the diplomatic situation between the two countries was “normal”.

Despite official assurances, however, Gad fears that potential leadership changes could ultimately damage the budding reconciliation between the former enemies.

“Within one month, the Likud will rise to power again under Netanyahu, and the change will negatively affect our relationship,” he said. “The chemistry between Netanyahu and the Egyptian leadership isn’t very good. I think we will see a noticeable freezing again of the relationship.”

Many Egyptian people are no less anxious about the potential for dramatic political change next door.

“I’m not happy that Sharon is sick, although he’s wronged many people in his life,” said photographer and Cairo resident Ghassan Hashem. “But there is some worry: everyone knows what Sharon’s game is, but no one knows what’s in the mind of the next Israeli leader.”

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