By Adam Morrow
CAIRO, Oct 13 2006 (IPS)

An announcement that the government intends to produce nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is provoking heated debate.

Gamal Mubarak, assistant secretary-general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and son of President Hosni Mubarak surprised the audience at the party conference Sep. 19 with the announcement that Egypt would revive its long-stalled nuclear programme.

“Many developing countries have proposed and started to execute the issue of alternative energy,” said Mubarak, who heads the NDP’s influential policies committee. “It’s time for Egypt to put forth this proposal for discussion about its future energy policies, the issue of alternative energy, including nuclear energy.”

Mubarak and other government officials were quick to point out that nuclear energy would be produced for peaceful purposes, as stipulated in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), of which Egypt is a signatory. Under the treaty, countries are allowed to build nuclear power stations as long as they are placed under international supervision.

Mubarak’s declaration was made amid a handful of mundane policy statements. “It was a fairly big surprise,” Joshua Stacher, lecturer in political science at the British University in Egypt told IPS. “There had been few hints beforehand that nuclear energy production was even on the government’s agenda.”

Nevertheless, added Stacher, “Egypt is well within its rights as a member of the NPT to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.”

There is little doubt that the government needs alternative power sources to meet domestic energy demand. Cairo is currently spending some 7 billion dollars a year to provide subsidised energy – a situation that will only become more painful as international oil and gas prices continue to rise. Domestic demand for electricity is rising 7 percent a year.

In the wake of the announcement, minister for electricity and energy Hassan Yunis revealed plans for a 1,000-megawatt nuclear power plant to be built at al-Dabaa on the Mediterranean coast about 150km west of Alexandria, at a cost of some 1.5 billion dollars.

Citing the country’s need to lessen its traditional reliance on non-renewable hydrocarbons for electricity production, Yunis was quoted in the state press as saying that Egypt could have a nuclear power plant up and running – with the help of foreign investment – within ten years.

“The Egyptian programme for the peaceful use of nuclear energy will be an ongoing one, involving several plants in different regions in order to guarantee the flow of electricity needed for development activities,” Yunis was quoted as saying in government daily al- Ahram Oct. 9. The minister added that the number of power stations would “depend on the manner and sources of financing and qualified technical and human resources.”

Yunis went on to explain that “the nuclear fuel to be used in the Egyptian plants would be enriched abroad” before being shipped to Egypt, although he did not specify which country would supply the fuel.

In an indication of Cairo’s seriousness, a government-appointed Council for Nuclear Energy comprising representatives from several ministries, including energy and defence, was convened shortly after the initial announcement. The council is reported to have begun work on a preliminary feasibility study to be handed over to the President for review.

This is not Egypt’s first foray into the nuclear arena. A decision to build a nuclear power station was made in 1963 by then president Gamal Abdel-Nasser, but the project was derailed by war with Israel four years later. A second attempt in 1986 was also aborted in the wake of the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine, which prompted the opposition Wafd party to launch a successful anti-nuclear campaign in parliament.

Now the fact that the nuclear bombshell was dropped by Gamal Mubarak, considered a major contender for presidential succession, has triggered furious speculation in the press.

An article in the Oct. 10 edition of independent weekly al-Karama, which is outspokenly critical of Gamal Mubarak and notions of presidential “inheritance”, asked: “Does the proposed (nuclear) programme represent…the beginning of a new balance of power in the region, or is it merely propaganda…to elevate the younger Mubarak to the presidency?”

Many political analysts see the move as primarily an attempt to bolster Gamal Mubarak’s popularity.

“It was important that Gamal make the announcement. It was done for practical reasons,” said Stacher. “While the announcement was couched in terms of national energy needs, the way it was delivered made it look like a public-relations stunt to score political points rather than a well thought-out national plan.”

Stacher added: “This in turn has fuelled speculation about the motives behind the declaration; fuelled speculation that Gamal Mubarak can be expected to succeed to the presidency – at least that’s how it has been interpreted publicly.”

NDP officials downplayed the relevance of the younger Mubarak’s delivery of the announcement. “These declarations have nothing to do with gaining credibility, and came in the context of discussions relating to our energy needs,” Mohamed Kamal, a close aide of Gamal Mubarak, was quoted as saying in the state press.

Analysts, however, suggest that Mubarak – a champion of economic liberalisation who, like his father, enjoys a close relationship with Washington – may also be using the nuclear issue to demonstrate his political independence from the United States.

“The government has presented its nuclear ambitions much like Iran did, turning it into a nationalist issue,” said Stacher. “This way, Gamal Mubarak, who has also made a number of recent statements expressing displeasure over U.S. policy, can establish his credentials in an ‘Egypt First’ way.”

“Essentially, it’s an effective ploy to tap into the national dignity question; to give Egypt a concrete symbol that it’s a sophisticated, modern country,” added Stacher. “Gamal Mubarak will become more popular for it.”

Some Gamal Mubarak critics, however, suggest that Cairo had received a green light from the United States before making the contentious announcement. “Gamal Mubarak received permission (to launch a nuclear programme) from Tel Aviv and Washington before bringing it up at the party conference,” independent weekly al-Maydan wrote in its Sep. 27 issue.

Many Egyptians are elated over their country’s possible elevation to the nuclear club, while expressing some reservations.

“If Egypt actually implemented the programme, we would be very proud; it would be great for the country, even if it’s for only peaceful purposes,” said Ahmed Salah, a 25-year-old manager at a food and beverages company in Cairo. “But I’m afraid it won’t amount to much; the issue is just being used to give the people something to feel good about.”

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