By Zoltán Dujisin
BUDAPEST, Oct 30 2006 (IPS)

The political and social climate in Hungary remains confrontational following the street clashes that marred the 50th anniversary celebrations of the 1956 uprising against Soviet rule.

Police forces acted brutally against protesters by indiscriminately firing tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets on violent and peaceful demonstrators alike.

European Union Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini has requested the Hungarian government to provide information on possible police excesses. Amnesty International has called for investigations into last week’s events.

The violence has given new impetus to the right-wing opposition’s demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, who nevertheless refuses to yield.

The socialist PM has been in a tight spot ever since a tape, in which he admitted lying to the electorate to obtain his re-election, was leaked to the press a month ago, leading to three days of rioting and a month of anti-government protests.

The 1956 celebrations held Oct. 23 were yet another opportunity for the opposition – and some violent rioters – to voice their opposition to Gyurcsány, capitalising on the heavy presence of international media in Hungary that day.

But this time it is police brutality that has put Gyurcsány in trouble, as their actions where aimed against a substantially right-wing, but heterogeneous group of demonstrators.

The incidents started when a few hundred protesters with no apparent political affiliation along with far-right activists attempted to enter an area of Budapest reserved for official celebrations.

Protesters hurled rocks at the police, who reacted energetically and pushed the protesters towards Astoria square, were the biggest opposition party Fidesz had just held its 1956 rally.

Many Fidesz supporters had remained in the area and were surprised by a police action that was deemed provocative. The confrontations resulted in over 100 injuries and arrests.

The largest group in the latest riots were Fidesz supporters “who don’t engage in actual physical violence, but are dissatisfied with the government,” political analyst Zoltán Miklosi told IPS.

The dissatisfaction relates not only to the Prime Minister’s lies, but also to Hungary’s economic situation. The 10-million country has a double-digit deficit, the only such case in the European Union, and the government has approved an unpopular austerity package to curb it.

Hungary’s economic problems are “a manifestation of a special political crisis,” says Miklosi. “The hostility between political camps has made it impossible for years to implement structural reforms, and governments have instead focused on spending.”

The country’s political culture is often blamed for social polarisation, which in Miklosi’s view “is not so great, but politicians make a big deal out of small differences.”

For the last month Fidesz leader Viktor Orbán has managed to keep the electorate tense by insisting on questioning the government’s legitimacy. His latest proposal has been a national referendum on some of the most sensitive governmental reforms.

The referendum, which still needs to be discussed in Parliament, would ask the electorate’s opinion on such issues such as health reform and pensions.

Orbán’s offensive was also aimed at the EU. The nationalist politician urged Brussels to “make it clear that it would not lend a helping handàto governments which lie and cheat and which, to this day, refuse to give up the moral legacy of communism.”

The socialist-liberal governing coalition has interpreted the sentence as a call for Brussels not to grant Hungary EU funds.

The socialists also accuse Orbán of promoting the recent violence by keeping people in the streets.

“Orbán is not directly promoting violence but he is instrumental in sustaining this situation,” Miklosi said. “His whole strategy this last 10 years has been to polarise public opinion”.

But after losing two elections in a row the opposition leader “is becoming desperate”, and “to avoid his responsibility he needs to keep tensions high,” says Miklosi.

But Orbán’s political departure, if it comes, would not end political hostilities. Gyurcsány’s position is becoming ever more unsustainable.

“Asking for Gyurcsány’s resignation is not unreasonable. The problem is to find a credible candidate to replace him,” says Miklosi.

Even some of Fidesz’s voters are realising the Hungarian right’s failure to replace Gyurcsány is connected to Orbán’s many mistakes in the past.

“He has been crying wolf for the last decade by saying the government is illegitimate,” a right-wing supporter told IPS. “And now that he is actually right, nobody will believe him.”

There are elements to Hungary’s crisis that are not unique within the region. Signs of popular discontent have also emerged in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, after years of enthusiasm over joining the EU.

“Resentment towards the old members’ treatment of the new ones, especially in terms of working rights, has grown,” says Miklosi. This has resulted in “disillusionment with the EU and democracy.”

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