By IPS Correspondents
KINSHASA, Oct 27 2006 (IPS)

Citizens of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will go to the polls Sunday to choose their first democratically-elected leader in over four decades amidst deep divisions in the Central African country.

This was highlighted Thursday, when supporters of the two candidates in the presidential race clashed repeatedly in the streets of the capital, Kinshasa.

After the announcement earlier that incumbent head of state Joseph Kabila would not face Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba in a live televised debate, Bemba’s supporters openly chided Kabila, shouting provocative slogans from atop cars in the city centre, and raising tensions ahead of the historic vote.

The elections on Sunday are intended to cement democracy in the war-ravaged country, and draw a line under conflicts between 1996 and 2002 that resulted in the death of millions.

But many Congolese fear the polls will instead serve to plunge the DRC into further violence by igniting deep-seated ethnic divisions that marked the first round of voting in July.

“We are all ready to vote; it is not election day that we are worried about,” said Bila Kage, an unemployed resident of Kinshasa. “We are afraid of what will happen after the results are published. It is difficult to see how the loser will accept the results.”

Despite widespread fears of violence, actual voting in the July poll took place peacefully. Kabila pulled in 45 percent of ballots, ahead of Bemba with 20 percent – leading to a second round runoff, since no candidate had won a majority of votes.

But the announcement of first round results sparked three days of violent gun battles on Kinshasa’s streets between private armies loyal to Kabila and Bemba in which at least 35 people were killed, according to police officials. Both sides accused the other of initiating the clashes.

The violence was the worst in Kinshasa since the end of the civil conflict; it cast a shadow over an election that saw over 70 percent of voters turn out and which, until then, had been hailed a success.

Bemba accused Kabila’s camp of rigging the vote by stuffing ballot boxes and altering vote counts. The accusations were not contested legally; but spokesmen for the vice president have said they will pursue any alleged irregularities during the second round in the Supreme Court.

“We got through to the second round, so there was no reason to contest the results,” noted Dully Sesanga, spokesman for Bemba’s party. “We have deployed our agents to each and every polling station, to make sure that the (second) vote is free and transparent.”

Electoral officials admit that certain irregularities occurred in the first round. But, they say they have continued to train their agents and are working hard to rectify problems in a logistically complex operation involving some 50,000 polling stations – this in a country with little infrastructure, few roads and minimal telephone coverage.

“There were agents who were caught altering results, but they have been replaced,” said Desire Molekela of the Independent Electoral Commission (Commission Electorale Indépendante). “We are always improving, whether in securing the ballots or making sure they are properly counted.”

Votes in the first round were cast largely along ethnic lines, with Kabila the front-runner in the Swahili-speaking east and Bemba winning most of his votes in the Lingala-speaking west.

Tensions are especially high in Kinshasa, in the west, where Bemba is the favourite despite being the underdog in the nation-wide race.

Since the first round, Kabila has forged alliances with third-placed presidential contender Antoine Gizenga, a former prime minister with a large following in central DRC, and Nzanga Mobutu: son of former head of state Joseph Mobutu who ruled the Congo (then called Zaire) for 32 years. The deals should theoretically guarantee Kabila victory on Sunday.

Both candidates conducted campaigns that slandered their opponent, and the rhetoric has not been toned down, despite appeals for calm from the United Nations and other watchdogs like the High Media Authority (Haute autorité des médias ).

A spokesman for Kabila played down concerns surrounding the next round of balloting, however.

“The U.N. and the government have made all the necessary arrangements to ensure there are no problems,” said Kudura Kasongo. “Arms should not, and will not be used to solve political disputes.”

Over 17,000 U.N. peacekeepers and 2,000 European troops have been deployed in the DRC to secure the vote and oversee the country’s fragile transition to democracy. The world’s largest peacekeeping mission runs up a tab of over one billion dollars annually.

A U.N-brokered deal between the two presidential candidates has also led to Kinshasa being declared an “arms free” zone. Armoured cars carrying peacekeepers in blue helmets have been deployed on every other street corner in central Kinshasa, and can be seen conducting regular patrols with the Congolese army.

“We have appealed to both candidates to ensure that Sunday’s vote passes in peace,” said U.N. spokesman in Kinshasa Jean-Tobias Okala. “The Congolese have clearly said no to violence. It is up to the politicians to respect the will of the people.”

Nonetheless, soldiers – including those belonging to the two candidates’ private armies – can still be seen in the capital carrying their machine guns, even as U.N. officials insist the new measures have been effective.

More positively, the DRC’s traditional hotspots in the lawless east, where militiamen continue to operate after the civil conflict, have been relatively calm, with little activity from militias to disturb the elections.

The Congolese polls are costing the international community some 458 million dollars and are the largest ever overseen by the United Nations.

No matter who wins, the DRC will be governed by a former belligerent.

Kabila was a soldier in his father’s rebel army, which marched to Kinshasa from eastern Zaire in 1997 – toppling Mobutu’s regime. Bemba is a former rebel leader who controlled vast swathes of the north during the 1998-2002 war, and stands accused of crimes against humanity.

Western diplomats, speaking anonymously, said that the loser at the polls could be guaranteed immunity from prosecution for crimes, including those committed during civil conflict, in exchange for peace after the elections and assurances that challenges to election results would only be conducted through the Supreme Court.

“The winner will have to share his gains,” one diplomat observed. “Otherwise there are bound to be problems.”

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