By Suvendrini Kakuchi
TOKYO, Dec 27 2006 (IPS)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces tough tests in 2007 foremost of which are making good on promises of a stable economic future and steering relations with neighbours onto a stronger platform, say analysts.

”Abe’s popularity is down these days as people feel anxious about their future. Abe must work quickly towards stability both on the economy and foreign policy,” Prof. Akihiko Tanaka, foreign relations expert at the Tokyo University, told IPS

Abe, 52, Japan’s youngest postwar prime minister, took over the reigns from Junichiro Koizumi in September promising to continue reforms and also work for a ‘Beautiful Japan’ where people who work hard are rewarded.

‘’Together with the hardened generation born before and during the war, and the young people who are eager to contribute to the people and the country, I will put all my body and soul in leading the challenge to create “a beautiful country, Japan,” a country admired and respected by people in the world, a country our children’s generation can have self-confidence and pride in,” he then said raising hopes of a truly new future.

But this month Abe’s popularity ratings plunged from 65 percent to 47 percent in a poll conducted by the ‘Asahi’, Japan’s second largest daily.

The opinion poll indicated that people lacked confidence in Abe. It comes on the heels of a bill that was passed last week in the Diet (parliament) to reduce millions of dollars of public spending on road construction, touted by Abe as a “reform for the people” but ending up as a watered-down version that has not curtailed the controversial system.

Experts point out the reform programme was an important step to reduce Japan’s high public debt of over 7.7 trillion US dollars, the highest among rich countries.

As the new year unfolds, experts contend Abe will move faster to shore up falling public support before the July elections to the Upper House, working towards goals he penned in his book, ‘Towards a Beautiful Country’ outlining highly ambitious policies.

More than 60 years after Japan’s defeat ending World War 11 in 1945, Abe has a vision of an assertive Japan fostered under the aegis of closer ties with the United States and more friendly partnerships in Asia that would see an end to chilly ties with China.

Japan has already taken several important steps for its new foreign policy goals. On Jan. 9, Japan’s Defence Agency will be upgraded to a ministry under a new legislation that will also make the Self-defence Forces’ overseas missions their primary duty.

Discussions are also underway to reform Japan’s postwar Constitution that was drafted by the American Occupation Force and pave the way for Japan to be fully accepted by the international community.

‘’Japan’s relations with Asia on the other hand, require a most subtle approach under Abe,” says Prof. Hisashi Nakamura, an Asia expert. He points out that traditional Japan-Asian relations, based on large dollops of Japanese aid that provided economic development in the region, have changed.

China’s high economic growth and its corresponding role as an Asian powerhouse and with South-east Asia now emerging as a consolidated and formidable trading bloc, has changed the status quo from the big brother approach, says Nakamura.

Based on this judgment, Abe launched the ‘Asian Gateway’ plan this year that calls for the growth of Asia along with Japan as the goal. As part of the plan Abe rolled out the red carpet for Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh whose country is increasingly viewed as a strategic bilateral partner.

Experts point to two planned events in the new year that Abe can use to promote a better image – visits by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and President Hu Jintao which would definitely boost Abe’s domestic standing as a leader who is mending Japan-China relations.

Again, North Korea’s looming nuclear threat in East Asia and its abduction of Japanese nationals, an issue that Abe has taken under his wings, will also face the test of his ability to persuade China and South Korea to work closely with Japan.

On the domestic front, Abe will have to deal more aggressively to tackle the fallout from the reformist programme, such as unemployment which now is at over 4 percent and boosting rural economies, struggling under reduced support programmes from the central government.

Indeed, the first item on Abe’s agenda in January 2007 is the passage of eight pieces of legislation under the ” second-chance support programme” which aims to increase jobs for middle-aged people and help “freeters” or Japan’s large pool of two million job-hoppers to gain stable employment.

Some of the major steps in this programme are tax deductions for companies that hire more women or senior citizens and subsidies to provide education and job skill training for youth with the government setting up more job centres across the country..

‘’There is still a chance that Abe could recover his public popularity next year as it is still too early to judge his political leadership,” said Tanaka.

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