By Adam Morrow
CAIRO, Dec 11 2006 (IPS)

Following earlier pledges to make 2007 “the year of constitutional reform,” President Hosni Mubarak recently called for a raft of amendments to the national charter “with the aim of securing a new era of political change.” According to opposition figures and political analysts, however, the promised reforms represent little more than window dressing.

“I doubt the regime is interested in making real changes,” Ahmed Seif al-Islam, constitutional lawyer and director of the Cairo-based Hisham Mubarak Law Centre told IPS. “The fact that the President’s ruling party still controls the majority of parliament doesn’t bode well for genuine reform.”

In a highly publicised speech before the People’s Assembly Nov. 19, Mubarak vowed that the current parliamentary session would witness “the widest range of constitutional amendments since 1980” when the national charter was adjusted during the presidency of Anwar Sadat.

Mubarak went on to state his intention to submit formal requests to parliament to amend a number of constitutional articles dealing with the extent of executive authority, the role of parliament and the electoral process. While the President did not specify which articles would be modified, insiders from the President’s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) have suggested that between 20 and 30 constitutional articles could come in for amendment.

Along with promises of constitutional revision, the President also recommended that a quota of parliamentary seats be reserved for women; that the power of municipal councils be augmented; and that an unpopular state of emergency – in place since the 1981 assassination of former president Sadat – be replaced with less stringent anti-terrorism laws.

Constitutional change, especially of articles dealing with the electoral system, remains a cherished goal of the political opposition. Established opposition groups have long pushed for amendments allowing them to field candidates in presidential elections and limiting the tenure of the chief executive to two terms. Mubarak is currently in his sixth five-year term as President.

Government promises of imminent reform were reiterated when Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif announced that a popular referendum on proposed constitutional changes could be held as soon as next summer. The Prime Minister added that the step could also pave the way for the lifting of the emergency law within the next 18 months.

“Work is under way to amend the constitution with the aim of changing the structure of the political system, encouraging political parties and replacing the emergency law with new anti-terrorism legislation,” Nazif, speaking in Dubai Dec. 4, was quoted as saying in the next day’s edition of independent daily Al-Masry al-Youm.

The Prime Minister went on to say that the proposed amendments would be recommended to the People’s Assembly during the current parliamentary session, most likely in June or September of next year. While Nazif, like the president, did not specify which articles of the constitution would be changed, he promised that the proposed modifications would serve to “change the framework of authority.”

Despite assurances that political transformation is in the offing, opposition figures and reformists point to last year’s amendment of Article 76 of the constitution, which paved the way for Egypt’s first-ever multi-candidate election.

At the time, the change was lauded for putting an end to the previous referendum system in which citizens cast a yes-or-no vote on a single nominee chosen by parliament. However, stringent qualification requirements on would-be candidates – who must be formally affiliated with a legal political party and garner the backing of at least 250 elected officials – were maintained.

This meant that the opposition Muslim Brotherhood, which is not an official party despite its control of roughly one fifth of parliament, was barred from running a candidate.

While there is an expectation that some of these restrictions will be eased, most reform-minded observers believe that the President’s proposed raft of changes will merely serve to strengthen the political authority of the ruling NDP.

“The amendment of the constitution as formulated by the state aims at consolidation of the state’s uncontested authority, without any accountability,” Tariq al-Bishri, a prominent Egyptian scholar and reformist was quoted as saying in the Nov. 28 edition of independent weekly al-Karama, which is known for its confrontational stance vis-à-vis the government.

Al-Bishri went on to voice the not uncommon opinion that the government’s promises of political reform were little more than cover for behind-the-scenes machinations aimed at the eventual ascension of Gamal Mubarak, the president’s 43-year-old son, to the presidency. “The state hopes to bring about the inheritance by changing the constitution, while, with the help of legislative window dressing, assuming the appearance of democracy.”

Analysts, too, express a degree of skepticism, given the government’s seeming reticence to provide particulars. “The promised reforms could have a positive impact in the future, but as long as the debate is controlled entirely by the NDP, they won’t be very meaningful,” Issandr el Amrani, a Cairo-based political analyst told IPS. “So far, we’ve heard relatively few details about the proposed changes.”

Echoing the fears of political opposition groups, El Amrani also voiced doubts that the proposed anti-terror legislation would represent a substantial improvement over the current state of emergency, which gives the government wide-ranging powers of arrest without trial.

“It would be great if the emergency law was abolished, but there’s been little public discussion about the anti-terrorism laws that would replace it,” he said. “If the new legislation still allowed police to detain people indefinitely, relatively little will have changed.” (END/IPS/MM/PI/IP/AM/SS/06)

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