By IPS Correspondents
TEHRAN, Dec 12 2006 (IPS)

When Iranians vote Friday to elect more than 110,000 members to city and village councils across the country and also choose the 86 members of the powerful Experts Assembly, they may well be deciding the future course of this country.

All eyes are now on the city councils as they are considered the crucible in which national leaders are moulded – a prime example being President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself.

City councils, established in 1999 during the reformist Mohammad Khatami&#39s presidency, hold a degree of independence from the government. They appoint mayors and govern municipal activities. Yet, in their short history, they have played an important role in Iranian politics and are now seen as a springboard for political factions. The Tehran city council holds great importance in the coming elections.

Weary of internal conflicts among reformists and Khatami&#39s inability to cope with pressure from other centres of power that stalled reforms, voters stayed away from previous council elections. With a new platform and new faces, a hard line faction that called itself Developers of Islamic Iran took over Tehran City Council from their reformist rivals in 2003.

That hard line council then elected Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as mayor and he went on to become Iran&#39s President. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, one of Ahmadinejad&#39s rivals for presidency from within the hard line camp, was elected by the council as mayor when Ahmadinejad took office as president.

"Ghalibaf has much at stake now. If a coalition of Ahmadinejad supporters wins the seats of the council, he will be out as mayor and the political career of the former Revolutionary Guards air force chief commander will come to a very early end. Ahmadinejad and his supporters are absolutely adamant to eradicate him," a political analyst in Tehran told IPS, asking not to be named.

"It is not only Ghalibaf they want out. Hard line Ahmadinejad supporters have no respect for the traditional conservatives either. They are refusing any concessions to enter into a coalition with the others because they have an exaggerated estimation of the votes Ahmadinejad got as president," he said.

Hardliners and conservatives are now divided into Ahmadinejad supporter groups, the mayor&#39s supporters, traditional conservatives and a number of other hardliners of different leanings. There are also a number of independents who can sway the results. In Tehran more than 1,200 candidates are running for 15 seats.

With days to go for the polling, hardliners and conservatives have managed to narrow down their electoral lists to two, those supporting Ahmadinejad and those with Ghalibaf.

Defeated by hardliners and conservatives for their failure to unite in three consecutive elections for city councils, parliament and presidency, reformists claim they have learned their lesson. They are now backing a 15-member list of candidates for the Tehran city council and Khatami has accepted nominal leadership of this reformist coalition.

The success of reformists in uniting and the failure of the ‘Principled&#39 (the name chosen by hardliners and conservatives for their coalition in the past) to offer a single slate of candidates so far has caused bitter concern in the latter camp. And to worsen things much of the bickering has now become public with Ahmadinejad supporters getting blamed for the failure by hardliners.

"If reformists win, international pressure on Iranian government will increase. There will be more pressure domestically from the opposition, government supporters will be disillusioned and blame the ones whose illusions of victory led to defeat of The Principled. The real losers will be The Principled," Ahmad Tavakkoli, influential hard line parliament member and Ahmadinejad critic, wrote in an editorial on the Alef portal.

Conservatives who were left out of centres of power by the younger hardliners after last year&#39s presidential elections are being blamed for the failure too. "If the Principled fail to unite with conservatives, they will have to separate their ways and create a new political entity," Mohsen Rezaiee, former Revolutionary Guards chief commander and present secretary of the Expediency Council, was quoted as saying by the Baztab portal. Rezaiee recently joined forces with the mayor&#39s supporters.

The other elections are for the Experts Assembly that convenes only twice a year. Its main function is choosing the country&#39s supreme leader, deposing him if he is found incompetent, and supervising his performance while in office – a responsibility the Assembly has been accused by critics of not taking seriously.

A number of reformist parties, including the one headed by Khatami, while not boycotting the Assembly elections, have not put forth any candidate lists as most reformist clerics have been vetted out by the Guardian Council.

A six-member group, the Guardian Council appointed by the Supreme Leader interprets the constitution, gives final approval to parliament legislation and whets election candidates and supervises all elections except city and village councils. In some constituencies the Guardians have only left just one candidate to vote for.

The main competition in the Assembly elections is between supporters of the fundamentalist Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi (Ahmadinejad&#39s mentor), conservatives and a few that are more inclined towards reforms. The most prominent among the latter is former president Akbar Hashemi, presently chairman of Expediency Council and incumbent vice- chairman of the Assembly. Another is Hasan Rohani, Iran&#39s chief nuclear negotiator under Khatami.

On the streets of Tehran there is little enthusiasm for upcoming elections. "I&#39m not going to vote. What difference can it make? I&#39ll never vote if elections are not really free and most candidates are disqualified for their beliefs," says Hanieh, 20, a college student in Tehran.

Others are more enthusiastic. &#39&#39We always refused to vote, thinking if the turnout was low, the system would lose its legitimacy and collapse. This has gone on for years now and nothing has changed. I think I&#39m going to vote this time and I&#39ll encourage my family too," a middle-aged taxi driver who did not want to be named told IPS.

&#39&#39Hardliners and conservatives have the advantage of using the extensive network of mosques for their campaign and all the favours they receive from the state-run TV. But now that reformists have overcome most of their internal conflicts and are acting in relatively high unison, and with support from the Nationalist-Religious opposition that has lost all its candidates to vetting, they have a good chance to pave their way to come back to power, but only if turnout is high and vote rigging and election fraud can be prevented," a reformist journalist choosing to remain anonymous told IPS.

"Elections are held by the Interior Ministry. Just a few months ago Ahmadinejad&#39s top aide and advisor, Mojtaba Samare-Hashemi, resigned from his high position to become a deputy of the Interior Ministry in charge of holding and supervision of elections. The appointment strengthens suspicions of plans to influence the results by the government," she said.

"In view of strong allegations of millions of fake identity cards being used by organised bands in voting and influencing of elections by the militia arm of the Revolutionary Guards in different ways in Ahmadinejad&#39s favour in presidential elections last year, there is great concern, not only among reformists, but also among some hard line rivals of the president&#39s supporters. The way elections are held this time is going to be a real test of democracy for the Islamic Republic," she added.

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