By Zoltán Dujisin
BUDAPEST, Dec 6 2006 (IPS)

This Sunday Transnistria will hold its fourth presidential election, and President Igor Smirnov looks set to win a vote that will be ignored by most of the world as this ghost state is still officially considered part of the Republic of Moldova.

One year after its independence in 1991, a brief civil war erupted in Moldova, a former Soviet republic of 4.5 million, following proclamation of independence on a fringe of land called Transnistria east of the river Dniester. This stretch of land has a population of half a million.

The Transnistrian President, who enjoys tacit Russian support, controls all branches of power, holds a tight grip on most of the media and the education system, and is the clear favourite to win the Dec. 10 vote.

The 65-year-old Smirnov has vowed to remain in his post until Transnistria is recognised internationally. According to local reports, the streets of capital Tiraspol show no advertisement of any opposition candidate, and the media has been extensively covering Smirnov’s activities.

But regardless of being considered a dictator in Moldova, analysts agree the President is genuinely popular, as he has been able to provide Transnistrians with higher living standards than Moldova proper through its Soviet-style political system.

A rival to Smirnov could be opposition leader and journalist Andrey Safonov, editor of the main opposition paper in a country were state organs dominate most media outlets.

Safonov, who supports the creation of a strong civil society, was almost disqualified from the election, but in a last-minute decision the Central Election Commission allowed him to run for the presidency.

Businessman Petr Tomayly and communist Nadezhda Bondarenko are also running for President, but sceptics argue they have been put forward by authorities to create the illusion of a pluralistic election.

While no candidate questions independence, they are open to different degrees to resume talks with Moldova on a possible change in status.

Smirnov excludes union with Moldova on the basis of irreconcilable differences in the socio-economic sphere, because he says Moldova’s pro-western orientation clashes with Transnistria’s more Soviet-oriented lifestyle.

Both Transnistrian and Moldovan sides accuse each other of failing to reach agreement. The main stumbling block has been Tiraspol’s demand for a co-federation, and Moldova’s offer of simple autonomy.

Moldovans accuse Russia of protracting the stalemate by supporting the regime and retaining peacekeeping forces in the region.

Transnistria is composed of roughly equal numbers of Ukrainians, Romanians and Russians, and all languages enjoy official recognition, though Romanian is only allowed in the Cyrillic alphabet.

“It is not an ethnic conflict, but now these divisions are being reinforced because they are useful to politicians,” Claudia Ciobanu, a Romanian politologist who was in the region recently told IPS. “Romanians living here feel repressed, and insist that only by creating a strong Moldovan state can the Transnistrian problem be solved.”

But Smirnov praises the Russian model of democracy, and makes no effort to hide his intention to bring social, customs, financial and education policies in line with Moscow so as to facilitate a future merger.

On Sep. 17 Transnistria held an unrecognised referendum in which 97 percent of the population expressed its support for independence and an “eventual” union with Russia.

“It might be that people really want autonomy to preserve a Soviet lifestyle,” says Ciobanu, “but there is also the question of how much of this is the result of propaganda and lack of knowledge about any alternative.”

“Life appears to be cheap and comfortable, the state helps the population with maintenance costs, people are well dressed, but unfortunately there seems to be a trade-off between poverty and freedom,” Ciobanu told IPS.

In her view “Transnistrians are victims of the business interests of Smirnov, Moldova, and Russia” who are all keen on maintaining the status quo.

The pariah state possesses the institutions and symbols of a proper state, but is more known for facilitating illicit activities such as human and arms trafficking.

Ciobanu concedes that with greater recognition the region “would also have to adhere to rules and regulations which are not just made up arbitrarily by Tiraspol,” though “there is no guarantee.”

Yet most international organisations have followed Moldova’s suggestion to ignore the election in order to de-legitimise the separateness of the region. The Moldovan government insists the region should first democratise and decriminalise, and end the presence of Russian troops.

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