By Vesna Peric Zimonjic
BELGRADE, Jan 19 2007 (IPS)

Serbia goes to the polls Sunday with deeply divided feelings over what the leaders offer and which way the country should go.

“There is no classic political scene or a division between left and right here,” law professor Vojin Dimitrijevic told IPS. “This is about breaking with the recent past or not, going into a better future, or returning to isolation.”

More than six million voters will have a choice between some 20 parties, but the main battle is between ultranationalists from the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and the reform-oriented Democratic Party (DS).

The moderate nationalist Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica stands somewhere in between.

The SRS is led by Vojislav Seselj, who faces trial for war crimes before the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

His party was part of the war machine of Slobodan Milosevic in the 1990s, and through the days of Serbia’s toughest isolation so far. Milosevic was ousted in a popular uprising in 2000. He died last March in the detention unit of the ICTY.

The SRS has steady 30 percent support, according to all opinion polls. The party opposes cooperation with the ICTY, and calls for Serb dominance over the southern province of Kosovo, administered by the United Nations (UN) for the past eight years.

The status of Kosovo is due to be resolved through UN sponsored negotiations, with some form of independence as the most likely outcome despite Serbia’s opposition to it.

Serbia’s failure to find and extradite war-time Bosnian Serb military commander Ratko Mladic led to suspension of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the European Union (EU) last May. Mladic has been in hiding for more than 10 years.

The ruling coalition of the DSS and two smaller parties is not predicted to win more than 17 percent of the vote. Kostunica’s government has been supported when necessary by Milosevic’s Socialists in parliament.

“Kostunica’s fear was that ultranationalists might stir the public if Mladic was handed over, and create disturbance in the country,” analyst Zoran Lutovac told IPS. “However, the reluctance to act decisively in any direction is costing his party a lot.”

The second most popular party, the DS, is led by President Boris Tadic. He is one of the closest aides of first non-communist prime minister Zoran Djindjic.

Djindjic masterminded the ousting of Milosevic, and handed him over to the ICTY. He was assassinated four years ago by supporters of the Milosevic regime.

The DS has some 27 to 30 percent support, according to recent surveys. It promises to quickly resolve the Mladic issue “as Serbia has lost too much time,” Tadic said at his party’s final convention earlier this week.

“These are the most uncertain elections so far, although they are the most important since the ousting of Milosevic,” Marko Blagojevic from the elections monitoring non-governmental organisation CeSID told IPS. “All our surveys show no party will get a majority, and coalitions will be necessary.”

“The most interesting part will be the post-electoral coalitions, as they will practically decide the future,” said analyst Zoran Stojiljkovic from the Faculty of Political Science.

Like many others, Stojiljkovic believes that a coalition of Kostunica and the ultranationalist SRS would be “political suicide” for Kostunica. “That would mean isolation for Serbia, no handing over of Mladic, and no renewal of talks with the EU.”

The only reasonable coalition, analysts say, can be between pro-democracy parties supporting Kostunica’s DSS and the reformist DS of President Tadic.

International media often describes Serbs as predominantly nationalist, but analysts say most of them are tired of the old games.

“Economic improvement in the country, where the income is ten times higher than in October 2000 (at the time of the ousting of Milosevic) has finally opened many eyes,” economist Misa Brkic told IPS. “The dream of most Serbs has changed from nationalism to pragmatism which says ‘I’m finally living better, I want to live even better from this’.”

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