By Vesna Peric Zimonjic
BELGRADE, May 8 2007 (IPS)

Serbia took a plunge into its dubious past with the election of ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic from the Serbian Radical Party as parliament speaker, the second most powerful position in the country.

Tomislav Nikolic (55) became the speaker early Tuesday after a 15-hour long session of the legislature, convened only the second time since the indecisive elections in January.

Under the constitution, the parliament speaker takes the duties of president if the latter is incapable of performing the task.

The election of Nikolic put an end to the impasse in parliament since the January elections. The parliament has since then passed no laws, and left the country functioning on a temporary budget.

The elections ended with the SRS on top with a third of the vote, but no party wanted to form a coalition with it.

On the other hand, due to irreconcilable differences between the moderate nationalists of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and the reform- oriented Democratic Party (DS) of President Boris Tadic, no coalition government could be formed by these two.

On Tuesday morning the DSS, together with the Socialists of former leader Slobodan Milosevic, and the SRS MPs outvoted the DS, minority parties and other reformists, and elected Nikolic for the important post.

As the DSS sided with the ultranationalists, it became clear that the reformists from DS could not count on it for any further talks on a coalition government.

“This is a clear step back into the past, a return to the Milosevic era,” top DS official Dusan Petrovic told reporters after the session. “This is a step towards another round of isolation as well.”

Under Milosevic in the 1990s, who ruled with the support of the ultranationalist SRS, Serbia participated in devastating wars in neighbouring Bosnia and Croatia. It was put under strict international sanctions, and faced unprecedented isolation that lasted until 2000, when Milosevic fell from power.

Since then, Serbia has made a lot of efforts to re-enter major international institutions, and take steps to join the European Union (EU). But the EU has been stern in its assessment of the latest developments.

“This is a litmus test of the rule of law in Serbia,” EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn said in a statement. “In spite of the worrying signals coming out of the Serbian Parliament today, I hope the reform-oriented parties will still give careful consideration to the wish of a majority of Serbia’s electorate for a European future.”

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said “the situation in Serbia is not good.” A proposed ceremony to finalise a relaxed visa regime for travel of Serbian citizens to EU countries was suspended immediately.

“It (the parliamentary session) was not the light at the end of the tunnel after months of dragging around by DSS and DS,” analyst Slavisa Orlovic told IPS. “It was the train that hit all the pro-democracy forces in the face. This situation comes at a very delicate time.”

For months now, Serbia has been involved in futile efforts to keep its breakaway southern province Kosovo within its boundaries. United Nations negotiators have outlined a framework for Kosovo’s independence later in the year, but the Serb government insists it will “never give Kosovo away.”

This stand is strongly backed by the SRS that has even called for “armed resistance” to the independence move. A small community of not more than 90,000 Serbs lives among two million ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.

Economic experts say that the political impasse in Serbia since January has been taking its toll.

“The year 2007 is already lost for foreign investments, despite good economic performance in the past years,” analyst Misa Brkic told IPS. “This means about 3.9 billion dollars were lost, which were needed to keep the growth rate at the steady six percent. At the same time, this means a loss of more than 100,000 new jobs that could have been created in a country with 900,000 unemployed.”

Brkic said “this is the worst crisis since 2003 and the assassination of reform oriented prime minister Zoran Djindjic.” Djindjic was assassinated by remnants of the Milosevic regime.

Under the constitution, Serbia now has a week to form a government.

Most analysts say it is highly unlikely that the DSS of outgoing Prime Minister Kostunica and the Democrats will now be able to form a government after the DSS support for the election of Nikolic.

“We are closer to the call for new elections, which should then, under the law, take place by July 15,” Orlovic said. “The bad situation we live in will be prolonged for months on, so that those running the country now (the caretaker government of Kostunica) could avoid responsibility for ugly things likely to happen, such as the loss of Kosovo.”

The next elections, according to analyst Vladimir Goati, will centre on two parties only – the ultranationalist Radicals and the reform-oriented Democrats.

“That will be their final battle, as the division line in Serbia goes exactly along those lines – the Milosevic era past or a reform-oriented future,” Goati told local media. “Serbia has to decide, but the outcome is uncertain.”

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