By IPS Correspondents
MANILA, May 30 2007 (IPS)

Although the official tally of votes cast for the senatorial election has still to be completed, two weeks after the May 14 elections, the latest round shows that eight candidates from the opposition party are inside the winning circle of 12.

Two of the other candidates in the top 12 ran as independents, while only two are from the ruling party.

But despite the strong likelihood of an opposition-dominated Senate emerging there is little chance of President Gloria Macpagal-Arroyo being impeached. The administration retains control of the House of Representatives which is crucial in the impeachment process.

She has survived two previous impeachment complaints in the House regarding election malpractices.

Representatives from progressive party-list groups, who are likely to back an impeachment complaint, will not have enough votes to sway votes in the House. In fact, many of them may not be able to get the maximum of three seats in the House this time around.

The leftist Bayan Muna (People First), a consistent topper in the previous party-list elections, now finds itself placed second to Buhay (Life), a group associated with the religious group El Shaddai. Bayan Muna will retain three seats, but its representatives have expressed concern that votes during the elections were split among the progressive groups and alleged party-list fronts of the administration.

But, this is where the Senate could be a thorn in Arroyo&#39s side. Senators opposed to her could block administration bills or, at the very least, make their passage difficult as was done in the past Congress. ‘&#39It would also be interesting to see how the opposition-dominated Senate will work with the administration-dominated House," Tuazon said.

According to the analyst there was a likelihood of Arroyo&#39s allies in the House attempting to revive moves to amend the Constitution, "but I don&#39t see how this will work given the strong opposition that such proposal faced last time." A controversial proposed amendment to the Constitution was a shift from the presidential to a parliamentary form of government. Administration officials had said a parliamentary government was more suitable for Filipinos, while the opposition said the move was meant to further extend Arroyo&#39s term.

One candidate who is likely to make life difficult for the administration, should he make it to the Senate, is Antonio Trillanes IV, one of the junior military officers who led a failed mutiny in July 2003. The official vote count, as of May 28, placed Trillanes at a high 11th place, a surprising feat considering that he is in military detention and was not able to campaign in public and lacked funds.

The campaign manager of the opposition party and some analysts consider the votes for Trillanes as "votes against Arroyo."

Tuazon said Trillanes was able to attract votes because he was able to project himself as a young and idealistic military rebel. "Even if many Filipinos may not agree with the military adventurism that he did in 2003, the fact that he was able to come across as somebody who had opposed corruption and stood up against President Arroyo à probably earned him public sympathy," he said.

Trillanes, in recent interviews with the media, said that if he becomes a senator, he would pursue the impeachment complaint against Arroyo. And even though he has yet to be proclaimed a winner, Trillanes has already come under attack from administration officials with the justice secretary Raul Gonzalez saying he was "politically immature" for the Senate.

While a political bickering like this between the administration and the opposition appears to be a sure thing in the next Congress, actual legislative work is another issue. Tuazon cautions the public against expecting Congress "to do its job in legislation given its dismal record in the past."

"Congress is just a political forum dominated by political dynasties," he said. On the human rights front, Tuazon said the Senate will likely pursue its investigation into the extrajudicial killings and other human rights violations allegedly perpetrated by government forces. Several incumbent senators and senatorial candidates have previously assured human rights organisations that they would look into the matter again.

Human rights groups have documented more than 840 extrajudicial killings since January 2001 (when Arroyo took over as the president). The victims, mostly activists and people associated with progressive organisations, are believed to be politically motivated. "I would like to see how (the senators) will be able to exert pressure on Arroyo to address the issue in earnest," Tuazon told IPS.

"The problem is, the President is as much accountable as her security forces are – and addressing the issue should begin with submitting herself to accountability. Will she do that?" he asked. ‘&#39By all indications Congressional inquiries into this issue will not put an end to the killings.&#39&#39

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