By IPS Correspondents
JERUSALEM, Jun 14 2007 (IPS)

Ehud Barak seemed a spent force. Languishing a distant third in the opinion polls three months ago, his chances of recapturing the leadership of Israel’s centre-left Labour Party seemed, at best, remote. But the former prime minister, a long maligned figure both among Israelis and within his own party, pulled off a dramatic comeback, snatching back the party leadership in a tight race on Wednesday.

Barak’s remarkable resurrection within his own party, though, does not just represent a personal victory for him. Ironically, it could also now provide the man he ultimately hopes to replace and whom he insists must resign, embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, with a lifeline. It could also spark a new peacemaking impetus – not in Gaza or the West Bank, but maybe with Damascus.

In the second round run-off, Barak, a former army chief, pipped Labour lawmaker Ami Ayalon, a former head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service. Having been unceremoniously tossed out of office in 2001 by the Israeli public, after peace talks he initiated with Yasser Arafat imploded and the second Palestinian uprising erupted, Barak departed the political arena and went into private business – a move that earned him scorn from Labour members who accused him of deserting them (and the country) in pursuit of personal wealth.

But having convinced party members he had mended his ways – he had particularly angered them with his go-it-alone, know-it-all attitude – Barak clawed his way into contention, ultimately winning the first round of voting in the leadership primary two weeks ago. He failed to get the 40 percent required to win in the first round, but his victory provided him with the momentum going into the second round on Wednesday.

Now he will join Olmert’s government, taking up the post of defence minister, which is being vacated by outgoing party leader Amir Peretz, who was beaten in the first round of voting.

Barak’s only public proclamation during the leadership primary – he ran a largely ‘silent’ campaign, only talking to journalists in off-the-record briefings – was that he would lead Labour out of the ruling coalition if Olmert did not resign by the time a committee of inquiry into the government’s handling of the war in Lebanon last summer published its final report in August. Olmert faced widespread calls to quit after an interim report published by the committee in early May found that the prime minister had failed in his handling of the war.

If, however, that final report provides Olmert with even the slightest opening, expect him to exploit it in a bid to cling to power, and expect Barak to be there right by his side, explaining why his pre-election pledge to bolt the government is no longer relevant. “Olmert has a reason to be happy,” says Abraham Diskin, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, referring to Barak’s victory. “It will stabilise his government.

“The alliance between Ehud and Ehud could last for a few years,” he told IPS. “Unless Olmert is indicted for one of the (corruption) affairs in which he is being investigated, or the war report says clearly that he cannot stay in office, then this government could even survive until 2009.” The next election is scheduled for late 2010.

Diskin says Barak will also have no problem finding a pretext to explain his decision to stay in government. “It’s just a matter of phrasing,” he says.

Labour members will also be disinclined to pressure Barak into honouring his pledge. They know that if he pulls them out of government, they could be in for an extended sojourn on the opposition benches. Opinion polls predict that Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the hawkish Likud party, would win if a national election were held now.

While the 65-year-old Barak ultimately wants to get back into the prime minister’s office, he knows he needs time to do among the general public what he succeeded in doing amongst Labour members – convince them he has changed, and is worthy of leading the country.

Some political commentators have already been dubbing Barak’s victory as “Olmert’s second chance.” Others have been speculating over whether Barak’s inclusion in the government could rejuvenate peace efforts on the Syrian front. Olmert has passed on conciliatory messages to Damascus in recent days and is waiting to see whether Syrian President Bashar Assad is in the mood to reciprocate.

But Barak’s first order of business will be to shore up his support within the party and draw in Ayalon and Peretz to ensure they do not become a source of opposition within Labour. He will also use the defence ministry to try and resurrect his image: expect photo-ops of him on military excursions and expect his public statements to focus on defence-related issues. He will want to be seen to be investing all his energies in ensuring Israel’s security.

But make no mistake, Barak did not launch a comeback because he wanted to be defence minister. His gaze is still firmly focused on the real prize – the prime minister’s office. His victory speech in the early hours of Wednesday morning left no room for doubt: “It is the duty of the Labour Party to establish itself, first and foremost, as the democratic alternative of the state of Israel,” he told cheering supporters.

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