By IPS Correspondents
BANGKOK, Aug 16 2007 (IPS)

Thailand’s government and the junta that set it up face a crucial test of credibility when 40 million voters go to the polls on Sunday to decide on a draft constitution that may lead to general elections in December.

The stakes are high. Colourful rallies led by the government and those by supporters of deposed prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, have been held amid allegations of vote buying and political skulduggery.

Tens of thousands of people have turned out at rallies with the government accusing opponents of buying votes and paying voters not to cast their ballots on Sunday. At the same time, the opponents have accused the military junta of resorting to intimidation in the hope of ensuring it gets the simple majority needed to see the draft passed.

In large part, the draft is drawn from the 1997 constitution that was set aside after earlier coup in September 2006.

Government spokesman Yongyuth Mayalarp said the new constitution has been presented to the general public as a step towards restoring political normalcy in Thailand. "This referendum is a chance for the people to come and give their vote on whether they feel that this new constitution answers all those problems or not. (Also) whether the new constitution can fill in those loopholes as intended (from the previous constitution)," Yongyuth told IPS.

Thaksin, living in exile in Britain since his ouster last year, has been accused of abuse of power, undermining the independence of institutions originally set up under the 1997 constitution and also corruption.

Pro-democracy activists and Thaksin supporters have opposed the draft constitution, saying it is aimed at reducing people’s power and also allege that they have not been allowed to campaign in the rural areas where Thaksin commands popular support.

If the draft gains approval the House of Representatives in the parliament will reduce from 500 to 400 seats, of which 320 will be filled through direct elections with the rest appointed from the party list.

Senate members will, under the proposal, no longer be elected but appointed by committees of bureaucrats and the judiciary.

Opinion polls in recent weeks indicate that the draft constitution could get narrowly passed and highlight uncertainty over voter turnout.

"From the (opinion) polls done two weeks ago it was something like 68 percent of eligible voters are likely to turn up. However, I just heard from the Election Commission that they anticipate a figure of around 50 percent," Yongyuth told IPS.

The Election Commission has 45 million eligible voters on its rolls with 87,000 polling units around the country that will stay open from 8 am to 4 pm. But recent cabinet estimates put a target turnout of only around 23 million.

‘Bangkok Post’ columnist Veera Prateepchaikul agrees that the chief concern is voter turnout. "What seems to matter most is a low voter turnout – or less than 50 percent in favour of the draft. That would be seen as a success (for the pro-Thaksin coalition) because their real intention is to shame or embarrass the CNS (Council on National Security)," Veera said.

Yongyuth admitted that the main aim of the opposition was to embarrass the government as elections would go ahead anyway under an earlier constitution as proposed by the junta. "If the draft constitution is not accepted then the national security council has to consult with the cabinet to look at the previous constitutions."

What is considered most acceptable is the 1997 constitution on which modifications would be made before the government conducts elections – possibly delayed until early 2008. But if the new constitution is accepted, elections would be scheduled for mid-December this year.

Earlier this week, interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont led a rally of around 50,000 supporters in the northern city of Chiang Mai – a Thaksin stronghold – while 10,000 supporters of Thaksin’s former Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT), along with groups opposing the draft constitution, rallied in central Bangkok.

Chaturon Chaisaeng, former interim leader of TRT, told a gathering prior to a rally, Wednesday, that the constitution was illegitimate and undemocratic and warned that it had "poisoned" the country’s political party system.

A former parliamentary president, Uthai Pimchiachon, was reported in the local media as saying he believed another coup would be inevitable if the constitution draft was passed.

At the rally, a 35-year-old IT worker, who identified himself by his nickname Gun, said he apprehended a showdown between the pro-Thaksin groups and any new government. "I think the situation is similar to May 1992 – if the military cannot respond to the right way for these kind of people (Thaksin supporters). So I think they may have some kind of problem," he said.

In May 1992, the Thai government was led by a non-elected military man Gen. Suchinda Krayprayoon, despite parliamentary elections earlier in the year. But Suchinda’s appointment – he led a coup in February 1991 – infuriated the middle-class which wanted to see an end to the military’s role in politics.

This time the middle class is more supportive. Desai Mywong, a trader from the southern seaside town of Pattaya, said he is happy with the new constitution. "I think this constitution is better than the last constitution. There is more freedom, especially for Thai people. I want all of my friends to say ‘yes’ on the 19th of this month," he said.

But the trader fears that Thaksin is still looking for a return to politics with support from the rural poor where the populist policies of the TRT party have won him a huge following. "I’m not sure but I think that Thaksin is trying make a comeback. He is not finished. He has a lot of money," he told IPS.

But a large military presence is being maintained in the rural areas and the junta has, since the early days of the coup, maintained tight control over radio stations state-run TV.

Thitinan Pongsudirak, a political scientist at Chulaongkorn University, said in a commentary that if the referendum was voted down the CNS and the appointed interim government of Surayud would face a "crisis of legitimacy".

"A failed referendum would be tantamount to a public rebuff of the coup and its attempted reconstruction of a political landscape that prevailed during the 1980s and 1990s," Thitinan said. "With the balance of forces overwhelmingly in favour of charter passage, an unexpected disapproval of the referendum is likely to lead to heightened political turmoil.’’

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