By Zoltán Dujisin
PRAGUE, Sep 27 2007 (IPS)

Ukraine is again heading for parliamentary elections after months of power infighting.

Polls are predicting that Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich’s Party of the Regions will get the first place in the elections on Sep. 30, followed by two ‘Orange’ forces, the Yuliya Timoshenko bloc and the pro-presidential Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence bloc (OUPSD), lead by Yuriy Lutsenko.

Much will depend on the results of the smaller political forces and the alliances they will seek. Polls are suggesting that besides the three main contenders, only the Communists and the neutral Lytvyn Bloc will get through the 3 percent barrier necessary to get into parliament.

The Orange forces have so far vowed not to seek a post-electoral alliance with the Party of the Regions, whereas Yanukovich has declared his willingness to work with any “level-minded” person in the opposition.

The present government lead by the Party of the Regions in coalition with Socialists and the Communists was formed in August 2006 after the Orange forces failed to reach an agreement over the distribution of portfolios.

Ukraine’s crisis began on Apr. 2, when President Viktor Yushchenko issued a decree dissolving parliament and calling for fresh parliamentary elections, which was disobeyed by the pro-governmental majority. The President claimed the government was usurping power after some opposition parliamentarians moved to the ruling coalition.

With Ukraine’s Supreme Court being unable to deliver a ruling due to unprecedented political pressure, the two sides agreed to hold an early election on Sep. 30 in order to avoid violence.

An excess of elections is becoming a negative factor in Ukrainian politics, Alexander Duleba, Ukraine expert at the Slovak Foreign Policy Association told IPS. “Ukrainians are generally tired of so many elections. The country is over-politicised, and this is why Ukrainians are disappointed with the situation.”

Researchers nevertheless expect turnout to be high, at around 80 percent. With the industrial east clearly supporting Yanukovich, and the agrarian western regions leaning towards either the pro-Yushchenko forces of the OUPSD or the Timoshenko bloc, it is central Ukraine where uncertainty prevails.

Yanukovich is trying to lure voters with the country’s good economic performance, even if stained by inflation, and with the promise of a stability that he constantly contrasts with the Orange side’s incessant internal haggling.

The opposition forces, calling themselves the “democratic and patriotic movement” in Ukraine, promise to bring honesty to governance, and “to unite the nation through spiritual rebirth” as stated by the OUPSD political programme.

The party has made the stripping of MPs’ immunity, often accused of hiding behind their posts to conduct dirty business, one of its main campaign pledges.

The Party of the Regions was quick to respond with a motion to strip not only MPs, but also presidential immunity, taking the opposition’s initiative even further.

Unsurprisingly, there are still signs of disunity among the opposition. Timoshenko has again spoken of re-privatising former state assets, a move opposed by Yushchenko and foreign investors, and her promise to reverse gas accords with Russia indicates that relations between the neighbours could deteriorate as a result of an Orange victory.

Timoshenko’s most publicised proposal has been to hold a referendum on the constitution and on whether Ukraine should be a parliamentary or presidential republic.

Disagreements over the constitution’s interpretation have been blamed for the recurrent power skirmishes that occur in Ukraine.

The country’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) and all political forces except the Timoshenko bloc found the referendum proposal to be legally problematic. It did not take long before the opposition leader accused top politicians, including fellow opposition members, of conspiring against her.

Still, Yushchenko has spoken in favour of a referendum if it is held in a few months time, whereas the Prime Minister has said he wants it to be preceded by a working group comprising representatives of different parties and branches of powers.

Yanukovich was swift in his response to Timoshenko’s initiative, and on Sep. 5 issued a proposal for a referendum on some of the most sensitive topics for the opposition – making Russian language official together with Ukrainian, local self-government, and the country’s neutrality, which if asserted could endanger North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) membership to which pro-Western opposition elites aspire.

Internationally the election has not drawn much attention, and both Western countries and Russia are keeping a safe distance, though the preference of Russia for Yanukovich and of Western countries for Yushchenko is still taken for granted.

Close to 1,000 international observers from several European and U.S.-based institutions and organisations will observe the elections, but as expected accusations of planning vote-rigging and of irregularities in voter rolls have emerged from all sides.

Nonetheless, Duleba is optimistic. “I don’t expect a falsification of results,” he told IPS. “The last elections in March 2006 proved the system is well developed, and from this point of view Ukraine is ahead of other post-Soviet countries.”

Yet legal problems could arise subsequent to the elections, as several analysts have predicted that the losing political force will appeal the outcome in court. A legal impasse could leave the president with full powers.

The president’s constant presence in the media and his campaigning for the Orange forces has drawn criticism from the CEC, which Yushchenko says was politically motivated.

But various observers have interpreted his actions as early presidential campaigning.

Writing for the Ukrainian magazine Fokus, Pavlo Vuyets speculates that Yushchenko, accused in the past of political weakness, is trying to capitalise on his recently bold actions to build the image of a strong leader and a “father of the nation”.

“Of course, being on show is a duty of the president, and so the border between publicly useful activity by the head of state and work on a potential voter is extremely subtle,” writes Vuyets.

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