By Marcela Valente
BUENOS AIRES, Oct 19 2007 (IPS)

Political parties are seeing their influence wane in many countries, say analysts. But in Argentina, the trend has become so acute that in the Oct. 28 presidential elections it will be difficult to even recognise the two parties that governed Argentina for much of the 20th century.

The Justicialista (Peronist) Party and the Radical Civic Union (UCR), which saw themselves as destined to alternate in power when democracy was restored after the 1976-1983 military dictatorship, have split into so many factions that they have given way to the personalistic leadership of charismatic politicians and candidates selected behind closed doors by small groups.

In a survey by the Giacobbe & Asociados polling firm, 60 percent of respondents described themselves as apolitical or independent, which stands in sharp contrast to the situation in the 1980s, when nearly 80 percent of the public identified with one of the two major parties.

“The party’s waning significance in politics is a trend observed, with very few exceptions, throughout Latin America,” political scientist María Matilde Ollier at the National University of San Martín’s School of Politics and Government, told IPS.

“In Argentina, the destructuring of the system is even more pronounced than in other countries,” she said.

The crisis of the parties has been thrown into sharp relief in the current election campaign, in which it is virtually impossible to distinguish which party each candidate belongs to. For example, the candidates’ web sites are identified by their own names, and don’t include the name of their party.

Opinion polls indicate that the Fernández-Cobos ticket could win outright in the first round. To avoid a runoff, they would need to take at least 45 percent of the vote, or 40 percent with a ten percentage point lead over the next candidate.

Other leaders opposed to Kirchner within his own party, which was founded in the 1940s by three-time president Juan Domingo Perón, are backing the candidacy of right-wing Governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the western province of San Luis. To do so, they created the Union and Freedom Justicialista Front.

Another Peronist, the centrist Roberto Lavagna, who served as economy minister during the first stretch of the Kirchner administration, is running for president at the head of An Advanced Nation. His running-mate is Senator Gerardo Morales of the UCR.

The list of major presidential candidates is completed by Elisa Carrió and Ricardo López Murphy, both of whom were once members of the UCR. The former is the candidate for the centre-left Civic Coalition and the latter is representing the centre-right Recrear (Recreate) party.

For the first time in 90 years, the UCR – which was founded in 1891 and governed the country several times in the 20th century – has not fielded a presidential contender of its own, and its leaders are supporting three different candidates from other parties or factions.

The Socialist Party, which dates back to 1894 but only won a provincial election – in the eastern province of Santa Fe – for the first time this year, has not escaped its own identity crisis. Some of the party’s leaders have remained staunchly “independent,” others have thrown their support behind Kirchner and form part of the national government, and a third group belongs to the coalition led by Carrió.

As analyst Rosendo Fraga explained to IPS, “the ‘radicalismo’ (UCR) continues to operate as a party, but is no longer a political force.”

UCR presidential candidates won the elections in 1983 – Raúl Alfonsín (1983-1989) – and 1999 – Fernando de la Rúa (1999-2001) at the head of the centre-left Alianza coalition.

But since then the party has suffered a sharp decline, and now only governs five of the country’s 23 provinces.

“The opposite is happening in the case of the ‘justicialismo’ (Peronism),” said Fraga. “It is no longer a party, but it is a powerful force that continues to dominate Argentine politics.”

The crisis plaguing the traditional bi-party system explains the triumphs of outsiders in provincial and local elections, he said.

The decline of the parties is not seen as a positive development by analysts. Political scientist Ana Maria Mustapic at the private Torcuato Di Tella University says the “pulverisation” of the parties poses the risk of political instability.

“Kirchner is buoyed up by the public, which backs his government, but that is not a solid foundation, because public opinion is fickle,” she warned.

The analysts who spoke to IPS concurred that political parties are necessary. “There has to be some form of mediation between the state and civil society, which is why the parties should improve their practices and renovate themselves, but must not disappear,” said Ollier.

As the parties are weakened, leaders begin to act on their own, often in an unpredictable manner, she said.

“No one imagined that Kirchner was not going to run for re-election,” she pointed out. After months of mystery, the president finally announced this year that his faction’s candidate would be his wife.

“Chaos fuels arbitrary decision-making processes and allows the leaders with the greatest resources, both material and symbolic, to impose themselves,” she said. Today, that means the strongest faction in the governing party.

But the opposition also shares responsibility for the current crisis, she said.

Virtually none of the candidates were chosen through a process of primary elections. “The personalisation of politics is strongly taking root: the candidates nominate themselves, speak in their own names, and try to get voters to identify with them by means of their own personal gestures and ways of behaving than through a collective vision for the country,” she criticised.

Carrió, who formed her ARI party in 2001, said at one point during the campaign that she would join forces with López Murphy, but that did not happen.

Now she has given some indication that if she were to win – she is second in the polls – López Murphy could form part of her government.

“A coalition means rules, institutionalised decision-making processes, but what we have here are people who proclaim themselves candidates at the head of personalistic conglomerates,” said Ollier. “And what would happen to these groups if the person who brought them together died?”

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