By Zoltán Dujisin
PRAGUE, Oct 25 2007 (IPS)

The change of government in Poland heralds a new era in its cooperation with the European Union, and changes are also expected in Warsaw’s policies towards both Russia and the United States.

“There is a new kid in the block, a new country, and we could compare it to an accession,” Piotr Maciej Kaczynski, research fellow at the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies told IPS.

In an election with the highest turnout in Poland’s post-communist history, leader of the Civic Platform (PO) Donald Tusk won 41 percent of the vote, with a surprisingly long lead over the current Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, whose Law and Justice (PiS) was supported by only 32 percent of Poles.

The Left and Democrats (LiD) and the centrist Polish People’s Party (PSL) obtained 13 and 9 percent of the vote respectively.

Poles apparently punished Kaczynski for his abuse of state organs against political rivals, and his uncompromising, but selective struggle against corruption and former communists.

In contrast with the conservative’s obsession with settling past scores, Poles opted for Tusk’s pro-European, conciliatory and modernising message in the end.

Tusk, renowned for his moderation and preference for dialogue, is a long known figure of Polish politics but lacks any relevant administrative experience.

The politician has made his priorities curbing the budget deficit, creating a business-friendly environment, cutting taxes, speeding up privatisation and adopting the euro currency as soon as feasible.

The likely prime minister believes in the Irish model, and claims only a liberal economic policy can fund a social policy of solidarity.

Thanks to foreign investment, EU funds and émigré’s remittances, Poland has enjoyed stable economic growth, giving considerable room for Tusk to act according to his plans.

If Tusk is a firm believer in liberal values in the economy, radical changes cannot be expected in terms of social values, as his Civic Platform holds conservative stances on many topical issues, such as the legalisation of abortion, or views on Poland’s communist past.

Tusk’s past as an anti-communist opposition of the 1980s has conditioned the almost definite exclusion of the Left and Democrats as coalition partners, considered the natural successor of Poland’s defunct Communist Party.

Talks on forming a coalition are under way, and Tusk wants a cabinet to be in place by Nov. 11. But few surprises are expected, as the election winner has repeatedly declared his preference for the Polish People’s Party as a partner for governance.

Tusk said one of the most important tasks of his country’s foreign policy will be to improve relations with Germany, the EU, and especially Russia.

Considered the key U.S. ally in Europe, questions persist on how special the relationship will remain under Tusk’s leadership. “We are members of the EU, not the U.S.,” Bronislaw Komorowski, likely foreign minister to be recently told the press.

European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said he expected “fruitful cooperation” with the new cabinet, while EU Parliament president Hans-Gert Poettering welcomed the results as a “good signal for Europe.”

The signals expected by Brussels, and promised by the winning PO include a quick ratification of the new EU treaty passed at a recent summit in Lisbon, and the signing of the European Charter of Fundamental Rights, on which only Warsaw and London had opted out.

“In the past Poland behaved as if it wasn’t a full member in the Union, resulting in many conflictive situations. Now we find ourselves in a completely new situation,” Kaczynski told IPS. “Poland will be more integrated in the decision making process, while before it was being marginalised in many day to day businesses in Brussels.”

The German government said it looked “forward to close cooperation” with Warsaw’s new representatives, and German politicians are expressing hopes for “a new beginning” that will emulate post-World War II French-German reconciliation.

Relations between Berlin and Warsaw had become strained under the PiS government due to its penchant for reminding Germany of its Nazi past and its accusations that Germany sought European domination through EU mechanisms.

The federal government coordinator for German-Polish cooperation Gesine Schwan claimed “Tusk is strong enough to represent national interests without doing that at the expense of Germany or Europe. This distinguishes him from the current government head, Jaroslaw Kaczynski.”

Schwan also added the elections proved anti-German sentiments do not prevail in the eastern neighbour.

The mood was somewhat less enthusiastic in the neighbouring Czech Republic, which has found in the previous Polish cabinet a valuable ally while defending euro-sceptic stances in Brussels, with mostly Poland taking the blame.

“We congratulate the winners on behalf of the Czech Republic though our cooperation with the government of Jaroslaw Kaczynski was good,” Czech foreign minister Karel Schwarzenberg told the press.

The U.S. is expected to remain a close ally of Poland, but the terms of the ‘special relationship’ will change. The new cabinet will be a more demanding partner, especially in terms of what Warsaw expects from Washington in exchange for hosting a U.S. missile defence system in Poland.

During the negotiations over the system, the opposition had accused Kaczynski’s government of an excess of ideology, resulting in Washington taking Warsaw’s support for granted at the expense of Polish national interests.

Poland would like to receive Patriot anti-missile defence batteries in exchange for allowing the U.S. to set its base on Polish territory.

In a reaction to the election result, U.S. secretary of defence Robert Gates said he hoped U.S.-Polish cooperation on missile Defence, Iraq, and Afghanistan could proceed in the same fashion.

The U.S. official was hinting at Tusk’s pre-electoral promise of bringing the 900 Polish soldiers serving in Iraq back to Poland, as well as his aim to reduce the 1200-strong Polish contingent in Afghanistan.

Yet if Warsaw’s new cabinet fulfils its promise, it is unlikely Washington will react harshly, considering that pulling out troops from Iraq is a step already taken by a vast number of European countries.

The most hated enemy of Kaczynski’s Poland, Russia, has expressed optimism following PiS’s defeat in the early general election. “Opportunities are, of course, now opening for relations between Russia and Poland to normalise and become more pragmatic,” Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aide Sergey Yastrzhembskiy declared.

Last May Warsaw vetoed the start of EU-Russian talks on reaching a new partnership and cooperation agreement in response to a Russian embargo on its food products. Russia has expressed hope the deadlock will be broken starting Oct. 26, when a Russia-EU summit takes place in Mafra, Portugal.

More problematic for the new government’s relations with both Russia and Germany will be to develop a stance on Russia’s plans to build a Northern Stream pipeline connecting its gas with Germany through the Baltic Sea.

Much of Polish public opinion is convinced the pipeline will leave Polish energy security in Russian hands, even though Germany has given Warsaw guarantees it will ensure supplies of oil and gas in case an emergency would arise.

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