By IPS Correspondents
ANKARA, Oct 9 2007 (IPS)

Less than six weeks after his appointment, Turkish President Abdullah Gul came very close to packing for removal out of Cankaya, the presidential palace in Ankara.

Absurd as it may sound, a home-made imbroglio by the Justice and Development (AK) Party’s leadership and parliamentarians fomented a burlesque situation that, had it not been corrected at the last minute, would have led to a new election for head of state.

To understand the matter, one needs to go back to Apr. 27. After a first round for the presidential appointment by the Grand National Assembly (TBMM), AKP candidate Gul could not be elected because of lack of quorum under the current constitution. Gul’s candidacy had been marked by million-strong hostile demonstrations in Istanbul, and large rallies in other large cities.

Building upon the inability of the parliament to decide, and fearing the appointment of Gul, the military had then issued a “memorandum” posted on the General Staff’s web site, sending signals of possible intervention in order to maintain the secularist nature of the country.

The head of the Armed Forces (TSK), Gen. Yasar Buyukanit had, in fact, been outspoken since the AKP became the ruling party in 2002, of his suspicion that Justice and Development had an agenda to progressively make of Turkey an Islamic republic on the model of Iran or Malaysia. He and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, AKP founder and chairman, had clashed on national issues whenever an opportunity presented itself.

The impasse in the house of representatives in the face of the opposition, combined with the spectre of tanks driving down the boulevards of Ankara, prompted Erdogan to adopt a new strategy and move quickly. Perhaps too quickly.

Given his majority, he had parliament adopt a package of reforms which would ensure that no such opposition actions could block a presidential appointment. At the same time, Erdogan succeeded in advancing legislative elections from November to July this year.

After obtaining the rescheduling of the legislative elections, Erdogan pressed ahead full steam with their organisation. With massive participation, AKP won the poll Jul. 22, with an unprecedented score of 46.7 percent.

The impressive result, which renewed AKP’s majority in parliament, boosted confidence in the party’s ranks for a “triple play” victory, controlling the house of representatives, government, and presidency. The presidential appointment process was launched in TBMM, and on Aug. 28 Gul was confirmed as the 11th president of the Turkish republic.

The new reforms package adopted earlier includes shortening of the legislative term from five years to four and the presidential mandate from seven years to five. In addition, it contemplates election of the president directly by the people rather than TBMM.

These reforms are subject to popular approval by referendum on Oct. 21. It is an event that has been scheduled for some time and, until a few days ago, did not consume much, if any, ink in the local press. But all of a sudden, it developed into a potential national crisis.

In the euphoria after Jul. 22, the AKP leadership had forgotten, or turned a blind eye to an important clause in the amendment package, embedded in Art. 18 and 19, to be voted upon on Oct 21. The text of the document proposed for the referendum stipulated that the “11th president” would be elected by popular vote within 45 days from the package’s adoption.

The implication of a “yes” to the package would be that Gul, already the 11th president, would have to stand for re-election between late October and early December.

The opposition, particularly the Republican People’s Party (CHP), seized the opportunity to trigger a storm.

A series of TBMM sessions were held since the weekend to examine the situation, and a parliamentary commission finally resolved Monday night that Art. 18 and 19 should be repealed as irrelevant under the present status of the presidency.

Had Monday’s manoeuvre to “amend the amendment” not succeeded, the package would have been presented “as is”, and had a good chance of being approved by the people. This would have led to a new presidential election.

Speaking to the press after TBMM’s decision, parliament constitution commission chairman Burhan Kuzu said that although there was no urgent need to remove the articles, the action was required in order to bring an end to the ongoing debates over the election of the president.

Meanwhile, close political friends of the PM have repeatedly advised the latter to cancel the Oct. 21 referendum altogether. Their argument is that AKP has already achieved its historical “triple play”, and further reforms could be made within the frame of the new constitution, under preparation, which will likely be put to popular vote in the next three to six months. So, why waste time, political credit, and 103 million new Turkish liras (60 million euros) that the exercise is estimated by the Supreme Election Board (YSK) to cost?

Critics, on the other hand, believe that the Prime Minister’s stubbornness in getting his amendments passed through referendum stems from a compulsive desire for revenge against the TSK and the secularist bourgeoisie for last April’s events.

Erdogan’s stand has been intransigent in recent days. Speaking Thursday at a technical university in Istanbul, he exhorted his countrymen to vote on Oct 21. In talks with political allies during the weekend he said “I promised this poll to the people and I will get it done”, referring to pre-electoral pledges to increasingly involve citizens in public decision making.

Regardless of Monday’s normalisation of the constitutional landscape, Gul’s position remains unchallenged mostly because there is no other credible candidate for the job. Since taking over, he has been as dynamic and omnipresent as ever, dissipating any doubt about his presidential stature.

This, according to some political and diplomatic circles in Ankara, often irritates Erdogan, who in the past was more assertive of his role as the main interlocutor with foreign political leaders.

At a time of strong economic growth and a plethora of issues faced nationally and internationally, friends and foes of Erdogan remind themselves that Turkey has the knack of inventing its own crises. But, it now seems Gul’s residence address is unlikely to change in the coming five years.

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