By IPS Correspondents
NEW DELHI, Dec 11 2007 (IPS)

While science and economics dominate the ongoing United Nations climate change conference in Bali, a new report warns of another serious consequence to global warming related events – increased conflicts in vulnerable areas.

Combating climate change will be a central peace policy of the 21st century, says a report “Climate Change as a Security Risk”, prepared by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, drawing on the work of international experts and organisations including the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

A UNEP release on Monday quoted its executive director Achim Steiner as saying: “There are multiple environmental challenges facing the world and the security of communities and countries. Climate change is perhaps the most high profile”.

UNEP urges governments meeting at the U.N. conference in Bali to adopt concrete emission reductions and support adaptation or ‘climate proofing’.

Interestingly the projected hotspots for future conflicts, due to climate change, tally with areas where agriculture is predicted to be adversely affected.

Earlier, at a meeting of institutes under the Consultative Group of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) in Hyderabad, southern India in November, crop scientists warned that cereal production in Africa and Asia would be adversely affected due to changes in temperatures and rainfall over these continents due to climate change.

The Mexico-based International Centre for Improvement in Wheat and Maize (CIMMYT) says climate change is also projected to affect wheat productivity in the Indo-Gangetic plain.

Similarly, Africa’s Sahel region would bear the brunt of decline in cereal production, CGIAR scientists said.

The crop scientists’ warnings coincide with the new report that if unchecked, climate change “is likely to aggravate old and trigger new tensions in parts of the world that may spill over into violence, conflict and war.”

The report suggests four “climate-induced conflict constellations”: decline in food production; degradation of freshwaters; increase in storm and flood disasters; and environmentally-induced migration.

Areas at increased risk of insecurity include northern and southern Africa alongside countries in the Sahel region and the Mediterranean.

Other potential hot spots are Central Asia; India, Pakistan and Bangladesh; China; parts of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico and Andean and Amazonian regions of Latin America.

The report warns that the projected extreme weather events, increased droughts and floods, and scarcity of water could stretch the capacity of poor and vulnerable countries to cope and govern, leading to destabilisation and violence.

It says vulnerable states are likely to be those in political transition, with low economic growth, large populations; and even those bordering those facing violent conflict. It says the potential for political crisis and migratory pressure will intensify as a result of the interaction between increasing drought and water scarcity, high population growth, a drop in agricultural potential and poor political problem-solving capacities of some of the affected countries.

The new report comes in the wake of rising concern over climate change and conflict. Earlier in the year the U.N. Security Council debated the issue and there have been warnings from retired and serving senior military experts in Australia, the U.S. and Britain.

The report explains how the different hotspots could face increasing conflict due to climate change.

For example, drought, crop failure and water scarcity would add additional stress to countries such as Somalia and Chad that already are weak states; or Sudan and Niger that face civil wars. This could lead to hundreds of thousands of refugees, especially from Sudan and Chad.

In southern Africa, climate change could weaken the economies of some of the countries that rank among the poorest in the world.

In Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, rapidly melting Himalayan glaciers could cause increased floods and soil erosion, impact monsoon rains and crops, and jeopardise the water supply of millions.

Rising sea levels and more frequent cyclones and storms in the Bay of Bengal could threaten coastal populations in the area. India is already pursuing a policy of fencing off its long border with Bangladesh to prevent refugees from that country, frequently affected by extreme climatic events, from crossing over.

In Central Asia, global warming and glacier melts could affect crop and water distribution issues in the region that is already facing civil conflicts in countries like Tajikistan and conflicts over water and energy resources.

In China, climate change is expected to worsen current air and water pollution problems, soil- degradation, desertification and water scarcity in some parts of the country.

Sea-level rise and tropical cyclones will threaten the economically significant and populous east coast. The government¹s steering capacities could be overwhelmed by the rapid pace of modernisation, environmental and social crises and the impacts of climate change.

Similarly, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico could face more intense and frequent hurricanes, while glacial melts in the Andes are projected to worsen the region’s water problems.

Should climate change adversely impact the Amazon rainforest, as some scientists predict, it would radically alter South America’s natural environment, with incalculable economic and social consequences, the report warns.

The IFPRI informed the Hyderabad meeting that affected countries need to make additional investments in not just crop research, but also expansion of irrigation schemes; rural roads, access to water.

All this would cause additional stress to affected economies, IFPRI scientist Katharina Rabbe said.

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