By IPS Correspondents
BISHKEK, Dec 3 2007 (IPS)

For the first time in the modern history of Kyrgyzstan, the parliament, called the Jogorku Kenesh, will be formed under a proportional system in which voters select a party rather than cast ballots for individual candidates.

The party that wins a majority of votes in the Dec. 16 polls will form the government and name the next prime minister.

However, the new electoral code adopted in a referendum in October – in which very few people participated – has been described by many opposition parties as overly burdensome.

Just 12 parties have been certified to run for the 90-seat Kyrgyz parliament, out of a field that began with 50 and narrowed to 22 that formally applied. Several say they were knocked out of the running on technicalities, and have appealed to the courts.

Under the new rules, parties must win at least five percent of the national vote, and .5 percent of the votes in each of the country’s eight regions and two main cities, Bishkek and Osh.

Candidate lists must also include at least 30 percent women and 15 percent minorities and young politicians.

Electoral Commission member Jyldyz Djoldosheva told IPS, “I voted to support all 22 parties that applied. Unfortunately, not all parties could prepare their documents properly, because this election is the first election on a party system and not all parties have enough experience to do it.”

Another member of the commission, Akylbek Sariev, said, “Introducing the new rule of 0.5 percent of votes at the last moment led to a situation where a majority of parties refused to run in the election.”

“There is no chance for the parties that are running to meet all the requirements of the Commission,” he told IPS. “And there is the possibility that no one among all the parties will have enough votes [so] they will try to block their opponents in specific regions. For instance, pro-government parties will block opposition in the south, and opposition parties will block their opponents in the north. Therefore, this election could be recognised as the election with no result.”

Mirbek Temirov, a leader of the Zamandash party, which was disqualified from running, told IPS: “We were confident about our party list and the decision of the commission was for us unexpected. We made a small mistake [in the paperwork] and it is not a big deal to solve it. Now some our supporters in the region are ready to organise strikes and roadblocks, as it was done in the previous election campaign in 2005 by supporters of some candidates.”

“But we have told them to wait until the court decision is issued. Then we will see what happens, but we have enough voters in the regions to go through all the barriers in the election,” Temirov said.

Three other eliminated parties are also awaiting decisions about their fate in the election.

The main contenders, according to political observers, are the Ak Jol party created two months ago by President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, and the social democratic opposition coalition Ata Meken, headed by former speaker of parliament Omurbek Tekebaev.

Ata Meken is one of the oldest parties in the country and has strong support in both the north and south, which will be key to gaining the five percent national minimum vote.

Some predict that Ak Jol, loosely translated as the white way, will take a majority of about 60 seats in the next parliament, while Ata Meken will get about 20-25 percent of the vote.

Last month, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe announced that it would send 20 long-term observers and about 250 election-day monitors. Several other international groups also plan to observe the vote.

Political analyst Kasym Jaynakov told IPS that he expected “We are going to be country with one dominant party in power.” He said that Kyrgyzstan appears to be following in the footsteps of its neighbours, Russia and Kazakhstan.

The Nur Otan party in Kazakhstan recently took more than 80 percent of the vote and formed an absolute majority in the parliament, while Vladimir Putin’s United Russia just won a massive two-thirds majority in the Russian Duma.

However, the Moscow-based Central Asia expert Andrey Grozin says, “Kyrgyz society is more democratic than in neighbouring countries. They are closer to civil society and I think they will not now allow the present government to use its power to build an authoritarian regime.”

Excerpt: