By Najum Mushtaq
NAIROBI, Jan 23 2008 (IPS)

Post-election politics in Kenya has become a war of attrition, and President Mwai Kibaki seems to be winning it, the cost to the image and economy of the country notwithstanding.

"How long can poor people continue to protest on empty stomachs and against the gun power of the state?" says James Mwangi, a bartender whose shack in the Kibera slum was destroyed last week during 3 days of protests called by the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). "This is not the first time polls have been rigged in Kenya, and it’s not the first time that we’ll see an incumbent government carry on regardless," Mwangi told IPS.

After three weeks of turmoil, hundreds of deaths, tens of thousands of people displaced, and an incalculable loss to the economy, the poll-rigging dispute between Kibaki and his rival Raila Odinga remains unresolved.

ODM has been forced to change tactics from street protests – which were brutally suppressed – to economic boycotts of businesses "owned by Kibaki’s allies". Announcing the new plan to journalists, a spokesman for Odinga said, "The strategy is to weaken those who are hard-liners and using their wealth to undermine democracy." Few believe the new tactic will have any impact on a government that has remained impervious to pressure from abroad and chaos at home.

People in Nairobi hope things are returning to ‘normal’. The capital was trouble-free Saturday. No violence was reported from other hotbeds of recent violence – especially Odinga’s hometown Kisumu and Eldoret – though security forces remained vigilant and on patrol in the more volatile localities.

The key to Kibaki’s resolute defiance is unflinching loyalty from security forces.

Initial rumours of dissent and dissatisfaction within the security establishment have proved unfounded. If anything, the forceful manner in which opposition rallies were crushed points to Kibaki’s complete control over the state apparatus.

Analysts say the composition of police and other security forces – especially the General Services Unit – partly explains their allegiance to Kibaki. "The country has had three presidents since 1963. Two of them Kikuyus – the country’s founder Jumo Kenyatta and Kibaki – and one Klenjin, Daniel arap Moi. These two tribes are heavily represented in the police and security forces," says a University of Nairobi professor. "As ex-president Moi is also supporting the government, his constituency within the establishment is unlikely to part ways with Kibaki," the professor stressed.

He also points out that there is no tradition in Kenya of direct military intervention in political disputes.

The opposition’s stance has also been undermined by shrewd political moves by the Kibaki. The convening of the new parliament – in which ODM’s candidate Kenneth Marende was elected as speaker, and other elected members were sworn in – has provided a semblance of legitimacy to the post-election political setup.

Kibaki has already named half the cabinet, and ministers have taken over their respective departments. Even if his re-election is in dispute, Kibaki has continued to conduct affairs of the state as usual.

Though many observers see ODM’s victory in the election for speaker as a moral and psychological blow against Kibaki, it means little in terms of power sharing. Also, the functioning of the parliament – however rowdy and quarrelsome – sent out a message that the system can work, and ODM can influence governance from within the house.

Nishet Shah, a political analyst, says the constitution of Kenya vests too much power in the office of president to make him bow to parliament. "Any person occupying the position of president has immense control… This power is overarching in nature and, despite there being a parliament and constitution in place, the president can easily bypass these," Shah told IPS.

In Kibaki’s case, it seems, he also has the power to ignore the loss of human lives and livelihoods as well as exhortations from world powers.

Excerpt: