By IPS Correspondents
MADRID, Feb 26 2008 (IPS)

"To keep this from turning into a major problem, we have to establish order and control. We are the second country in the world in terms of the influx of foreigners; this is an avalanche," said Mariano Rajoy, leader of Spain’s rightwing Popular Party (PP).

He was addressing Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in the first election debate between the two main parties in 15 years.

Immigration, the fight against terrorism, the economy, and relations between the Catholic Church and the state were the main points discussed Monday night in the televised debate between Zapatero, of the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), and his main rival in the Mar. 9 elections.

Rajoy blamed Zapatero for the "avalanche," referring to an amnesty law that granted residency and work permits to around 700,000 undocumented immigrants three years ago.

The law also established that any migrant interested in working in Spain must previously obtain an entry visa and sign a work contract before arriving in the country, or face deportation. Immigrants with work permits pay into the social security system and have a right to health care and unemployment coverage.

"The law had the effect of a call that was heard around the world," according to Rajoy. "I propose prohibiting massive regularisation of immigrants by law, an ‘integration contract’, and the deportation of foreigners who commit crimes."

"That is already in the law," Zapatero retorted, accusing his adversary of using immigrants as an electoral weapon and pointing out that when the PP was in the government in the late 1990s and early 2000s, there were 700,000 immigrants working illegally in the country.

The first of two scheduled debates between Rajoy and Zapatero set a new ratings record, with more than 13 million viewers – nearly two million more than the number of people in Spain who watched the 1993 debate between former prime ministers Felipe González (1982-1996) of the PSOE and José María Aznar (1996-2004) of the PP.

Over the past 15 years, the PP had repeatedly refused the PSOE candidates’ requests for electoral debates.

Analysts attribute Rajoy’s agreement to take part this time around to the fact that the opinion polls predict that he will be narrowly defeated on Mar. 9, and to his hopes that he can somehow turn things around.

The next debate is scheduled for Monday, Mar. 3.

Polls commissioned by the three private television stations that broadcast the debate showed that a majority of viewers declared Zapatero the winner. The TNS Demoscopia market research firm reported that he had a six-point advantage over Rajoy, and another polling firm put the prime minister’s lead at 15 points.

Political commentators agreed that Zapatero came off as the most credible candidate, and that Rajoy’s attacks on his opponent and aggressive tone hurt his image.

The PP, on the other hand, said Rajoy fared better than his opponent on all of the issues, and that they would prove it in the elections.

The press, meanwhile, said things are not yet clear, and that the next debate could be decisive, given the relatively large proportion of people who say they are still undecided.

Observers recall that in 1993, Aznar won the first debate and González carried the second, going on to win reelection.

They also note that four years ago, the polls predicted a victory for Aznar, but Zapatero triumphed, after the political backlash triggered by the Mar. 11, 2004 terrorist train bombings in Madrid, in which 191 people were killed.

The latest polls point to a "technical tie", with Zapatero showing a lead as small as 1.5 percent in some surveys.

What there is little uncertainty about is that the next debate will have a similar agenda: the fight against the Basque separatist group ETA, the economic slowdown, the Catholic Church leadership’s support for the PP, and immigrants – the pressing questions on people’s minds today in Spain.

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