By Kester Kenn Klomegah
MOSCOW, Mar 10 2008 (IPS)

Foreign policy experts have raised concerns about Russia&#39s relations with its neighbours after the presidential election that gave first deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev a landslide victory.

Speaking at a midnight news conference shortly after the election, Medevdev indicated that his first foreign trip would be to an ex-Soviet republic, in a show of priorities in Russia&#39s policy.

Ex-Soviet republics came together in a loose political alliance, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), after the Soviet collapse. Putin has tried to bring the ex-Soviet republics to uphold common aims while retaining their independence.

Medvedev said he would take "the path chosen by our country eight years ago." That path was, he clarified, the one "being followed by President Putin." Medvedev was publicly backed by Putin as his successor in mid-December, and was later nominated by the ruling United Russia party as presidential candidate. He won with an overwhelming 70.2 percent of the vote in the Mar. 2 election.

His inauguration as president is set for May 7.

"A visit to one of the CIS countries cannot help in strengthening relations with all others," Vyacheslav Amivov, senior research fellow at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations under the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow told IPS. "The only way for Russia to improve the situation in the CIS region is to try to deepen relations with ex-Soviet republics on bilateral basis."

Membership of the CIS consists of all republics of the old USSR minus the three Baltic states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. The Baltic states are Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Medvedev seems to be setting out on a course of strengthening CIS relations. Under Russia&#39s constitution, the president sets domestic and foreign policy, is commander of the armed forces, appoints the prime minister, presides over government meetings, and supervises the intelligence and police agencies.

While the constitution provides for a strong president and a weak prime minister, Putin – by far the dominant figure in Russia&#39s political landscape – may not settle for a subordinate role after taking the post of prime minister in Medvedev&#39s administration. Putin said explicitly last month that Russia&#39s policy on the CIS would not change.

"I do not think we will have any revolutionary changes, because Dmitry Anatolyevich (Medvedev) is one of the authors of Russian policy in this sphere," Putin told an informal summit of leaders from the CIS. Putin proposed a development programme for the CIS for the next 12 years. "We should work out a new economic strategy up to 2020," he said.

Putin spelt out his closeness with Medvedev. "I have known Dmitry Medvedev for a very long time, we&#39ve been working together for over 17 years…When he worked as chief of presidential staff, he was one of the most intimate members of my team, and together we worked out all key decisions, including on the CIS," Putin said.

The CIS leaders discussed economic, trade and migration policies at the summit. The leaders endorsed a &#39Strategy for the Commonwealth&#39s Economic Development&#39 that sets out measures to boost economic cooperation, raise the competitiveness of CIS member states, and foster social and economic development.

Policy researchers say the main idea of creating a commonwealth is to promote good neighbourhood through comprehensive economic cooperation, even though each member has peculiar post-Soviet national problems, and they differ on foreign policies with the West.

"One of the most important problems in post-Soviet relations is the search for common regional identity in politics, economy and culture, and to unite against external (western) infiltration," Irina Bolgova, foreign policy researcher at the Centre for post-Soviet Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) told IPS.

"Russia has an official document concerning the strategy for relations with post-Soviet countries that dates as far back as 1995. So, an updated proactive coherent strategy with post-Soviet neighbours seems to me the most efficient way to a mutually rewarding collaboration."

Bolgova said that "without an elaborated policy towards the post-Soviet space and integration, our neighbourhood relations may diminish, and Russia has to play a leading role in this."

But some experts ask what Russia really can do. "I do not think that in a short-term perspective any integration policy on a post-Soviet space will be productive," Victor Chumak, director in charge of political analysis and security programmes at the International Centre for Policy Studies in Ukraine, told IPS from Kiev. "For example, seven years of establishment of the joint Russia-Belarus Union did not give any significant results."

Many of the CIS countries are focused on improved relations with the West.

"NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) and Russia already have common borders," Chumak said. "I cannot speak about other countries. As for Ukraine, I am sure we need to integrate with NATO to improve our relations with Russia in the long run."

Chumak said it is likely that Putin as a prime minister would control relations behind the scene with western countries, while Medvedev would limit himself to issues relating to CIS countries.

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