By IPS Correspondents
HARARE, Jun 24 2008 (IPS)

The decision this week by Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party to pull out of Friday's presidential run off election will not have surprised many people in Zimbabwe. A growing chorus of doubt regarding the legitimacy of the poll has been raised, which came amid mounting political violence in the country.

Hours before the opposition party announced its decision on Sunday, a rally in the capital Harare – initially banned by police before courts ruled the MDC could go ahead – was violently broken up by pro-Mugabe youth militia.

After winning the March 29 poll, albeit with a margin insufficient to be declared outright winner of presidential elections, opposition party leader Morgan Tsvangirai appeared to be in a dominant position to win Friday's run-off poll.

Arthur Mutambara, who contested the presidential poll at the head of a smaller faction of the MDC, had offered to back Tsvangirai the second round. Analysts also believed that the harsh economic conditions which have seen many Zimbabweans seeking refuge in neighbouring countries could have worked in his favour.

But agreeing to participate in the run-off was a gamble by opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in the face of contrary arguments from some sections of the Zimbabwean society who felt it was naive to expect a fair vote in a terrain dominated by Mugabe and his associates.

Zimbabwe’s former minister of finance and losing presidential candidate, Simba Makoni, argued that a free and fair election was not possible under the current circumstances and campaigned vigorously for a government of national unity which he said would lead the country through a national healing process over the next two years, after which proper elections can then be organised.

"Elections will not solve the crisis that faces Zimbabwe today. We have learnt from other countries that have experienced conflict that elections alone do not solve political governance crises. What Zimbabwe needs, is a negotiated settlement and the presidential elections run-off must be called off," said FePEP in a statement released early this month.

Zimbabwe entering deeper crisis

At independence in 1980, Zimbabwe was one of the strongest economies in southern Africa. Today the country is experiencing mounting poverty and hardship, with 80 percent unemployment, a valueless currency and rapidly escalating political tensions. For the majority of hard-pressed Zimbabweans, any kind of settlement will do – many welcomed Tsvangirai's decision to pull out of election.

"Tsvangirai has taken a very good decision under the circumstances, because had he continued with this election many people would have been killed this week, it is a decision in favour of the people of Zimbabwe against Mugabe. It is now up to the international community to act to stop Mugabe," Alois Chingwe, a Harare street vendor told IPS.

However, another Harare resident who asked not to be identified said Tsvangirai's withdrawal is a blow to the people of Zimbabwe who had risked beatings or even murder by voting for the MDC in March.

"People have suffered enough already, others have died and had nothing to lose anymore. What this means is that Mugabe will have an easy victory which he does not deserve and the people of Zimbabwe will continue suffering, the pull out will be disastrous," he said.

But the MDC leader – obviously aware of these sentiments- said on Monday that people should think about those in the rural areas who have borne the brunt of the violence. "There will be individuals who will in the comfort of their homes say why did we withdraw. I can understand that, but please give consideration to those in the rural areas who are under siege and have no one to protect them," Tsvangirai, told a special US-based programme aimed at Zimbabwe.

What next for Zimbabwe?

Harare-based political analyst and director of the Media Institute of Southern Africa (MISA) Director, Takura Zhangazha, told IPS that a government of national unity is now all but inevitable.

"Negotiation is the most likely outcome of this impasse. The only issue is whether it will still be overseen by SADC under Mbeki or by the AU or the U.N. MDC has indicated that it is willing to share power, but I am not sure if they are willing to let ZANU-PF be the head of a coalition government. But it is most likely that negotiations will be the solution that will be sought by the regional and international community," said Zhangazha.

"With or without MDC, ZANU-PF is going to try as much as possible to hold the election on Friday and then negotiate with its leader as the president because that's the only way they can survive. And they are serious about that," he said.

Constitutional law expert and National Constitutional Assembly Chairman, Lovemore Madhuku was in agreement. "At best we are going to see more pressure on Mugabe for some government of national unity. But if there is going to be some political accommodation, it's going to take some time," said Madhuku.

"The MDC's withdrawal is certainly going to increase Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe's isolation on the international stage from many international leaders who have already ruled out his legitimacy as the next leader of Zimbabwe," said Madhuku.

African leaders including Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Zambian president Levy Mwanawasa and the head of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress, Jacob Zuma, have all criticised the Zimbabwean leader, saying his conduct brings shame to the African continent.

"The pullout is an embarrassment for Mugabe and now Mugabe and ZANU PF have two options left: either to declare Mugabe elected because he is unopposed or to just go ahead with Friday’s vote. But he will still have to negotiate with Tsvangirai because he will not be recognised by the international community of leaders," said Madhuku.

A non-binding statement issued by the UN Security Council on Monday in New York condemned "the campaign of violence against the political opposition… which has resulted in the killing of scores of opposition activists and other Zimbabweans and the beating and displacement of thousands of people, including many women and children."

A crucial question in negotiation will be prosecution of the perpetrators of the extraordinary brutality that has been unleashed on Zimbabwe's population since the Mar. 29 elections.

"There is no guarantee that violence will stop because the MDC has withdrawn and should there be negotiations in earnest, it will mean that there will be an attempt to protect those that have been perpetrating acts of violence especially by ZANU PF through some form of amnesty and reconciliation pact. This bodes ill for the respect for human rights as there is limited reason to believe that the perpetrators will be brought to justice," Zhangazha told IPS.

Whether the MDC’s decision will lead to a faster resolution of Zimbabwe’s problems remains debatable, but one thing that is for sure is that the opposition party’s future survival now hinges on how regional and international bodies respond to events in the next few days.

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