By IPS Correspondents and - -
MIAMI, Oct 15 2008 (IPS)

Barack Obama seems to have reached the threshold of the White House, writes Joaquin Roy, \’\’Jean Monnet\’\’ professor and Director of the European Union Centre of the University of Miami. In this article, Roy writes that McCain and Palin\’s appeal to traditional values, which has attracted a significant number of voters, was directed at a country that no longer exists and has lost one war and is performing disastrously in two others. As for Obama, the explosion of the economic crisis has played to his favour. To borrow a phrase: it\’s not ideology. It\’s the economy, stupid – once again. The latest polls show that McCain can count on 143 electoral votes from the traditionally Republican states, plus about 15 more, making a total of only 158. Obama will enter the November 4 election assured of 211 electoral votes, and has a good chance of winning 66 more in states leaning toward the Democrats, which would give him a total of 277. This would represent a sound defeat for the Republicans. And it would not be surprising if Obama swept the popular vote as well. Given this landscape, Obama has little to do other than wait calmly for the vote. As long as he doesn\’t wink at Palin and his wife Michelle stays out of the limelight, the race is over. Obama has only to prepare his acceptance speech.

McCain grounded his campaign strategy in loyalty to the traditional values of the country and the gravity of his heroic military and senatorial service, and he seemed likely to succeed. But Obama responded with an image that showed a dynamic agility and an ability to react to changing circumstances that would be necessary in an uncertain and constantly-changing world like ours.

McCain then pulled into the lead with the selection of little-known Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. It was a striking coup that tapped into the idea of America as a frontier nation, though it was directed towards the past. The Republican ticket was helped by the fact that the media proceeded very cautiously in its examination of Palin in order to avoid what could be considered sexist bias. A young and energetic woman, Palin was a clear plus for to her grey, older running mate.

However, after this jump in Republican fortunes, the vulnerabilities of both presidential candidates began to tilt the race back in Obama’s favour. His Achilles’ heel was the novelty of a being unusual contender. The combustible theme of race continues to hover over the campaign, with evidence of possible hypocrisy of those who profess support for Obama but would vote otherwise in the privacy of the voting booth.

For his part, McCain emerged as the victor among a group of tedious Republican candidates who lacked charisma as well as the conviction to become president. The selection of McCain seemed to be the product of inertia.

Palin’s populist appeal began to fade, and her performance in the debate was marred by her ingenuous winks and the use of cliched, popular “down home” expressions that simply rang hollow. Revelations regarding her abuse of power as governor of Alaska then added a new dimension to her candidacy. She went from being a politician no one knew anything about to one people knew too much about, in contrast to Obama’s runningmate, long-time Senator Joe Biden, whose record is an open book

In short, McCain and Palin’s appeal to traditional values, which has attracted a significant number of voters, was directed at a country that no longer exists, which has lost one war and is performing disastrously in two others. As for Obama, the explosion of the economic crisis has played to his favour. To borrow a phrase: it’s not ideology. It’s the economy, stupid – once again.

But the McCain-Palin misfortunes don’t stop there. The most recent polls show that McCain can count on 143 electoral votes from the traditionally Republican states, plus about 15 more, making a total of only 158. Obama will enter the November 4 election assured of 211 electoral votes, and has a good chance of winning 66 more in states leaning toward the Democrats, which would give him a total of 277. This would represent a sound defeat for the Republicans.

It remains to be seen, of course, how the popular vote will play out, but it would not be surprising if Obama swept it as well. It would be interesting to consider how the US Congress might be reshaped by a broad victory by Obama, although the US legislature is not based on proportional representation (like the majority of European countries) but rather winner-takes-all contests. Thus speculation must be limited to the reality of the present system.

Nonetheless, there are predictions of an additional Republican defeat in the Congressional elections, given the complete turnover in the lower house, where terms are two years, and the fact that a third of the Senate is up for re-election. In the House of Representatives there are currently 235 Democrats and 199 Republicans. It is estimated that an additional 15-30 Democrats might ride in on Obama’s coattails. In the Senate, now locked in a virtual tie between the two parties, Democrats could pick up about half a dozen of the contested seats.

Given this landscape, Obama has little to do other than wait calmly for the vote. As long as he doesn’t wink at Palin and his wife Michelle stays out of the limelight, the race is over. Obama has only to prepare his acceptance speech. (END/COPYRIGHT IPS)

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