By Athar Parvaiz
SRINAGAR, Jan 6 2009 (IPS)

As tensions brew between India and Pakistan, a newly elected provincial government, led by the regional, pro-India National Conference (NC) party, has taken over the reins in Jammu and Kashmir – a territory whose ownership has long been disputed by Pakistan.

Years of armed conflict have led nowhere in Jammu and Kashmir. Credit: Athar Parvaiz/IPS

"They [separatists] must have now realised that talks are the only way forward… and I'm also desirous of having talks with them,’’ Abdullah said.

With 28 seats in the 87-member state assembly, Abdullah’s party could form a government only after forging a coalition with the nationally-ruling Congress party which claimed 17 seats.

Observers say that there is now an opportunity to redefine the political discourse in Kashmir with violent resistance now standing clearly rejected by the people.

In mid-2008, the people of Indian Kashmir held peaceful protest demonstrations in favour of freedom, but chose to participate in elections held towards the end of the year.

Almost all the separatists were detained or put under house arrest until the seven-phase election process was completed. The authorities also imposed repeated curfews to maintain peace during the elections.

"During the course of the armed conflict in Kashmir, the people have never shown such faith in electoral politics, but this time around they participated in large numbers,’’ Gul Mohammad Wani, a Kashimir University academic and analyst, told IPS.

"This is all the more amazing as the elections were held shortly after the massive, pro-freedom protest demonstrations,'' Wani said.

According to Wani, what happened was an assertion of people’s power. ‘’We had two public demonstration; the first one -triggered by the land-transfer to a Hindu shrine board – was against the state. And in the second one, people reaffirmed faith in democracy,’’ Wani observed.

"First they put the state to test by protesting on a massive scale in a peaceful manner. And then they ignored the pro-freedom camp’s call to boycott the elections,'' Wani explained.

"The moderates in the pro-freedom camp now realise that people are bound to vote for governance and developmental issues when the pro-freedom leaders have no resources to cater to these needs,’’ Wani added.

One of the most respected pro-freedom leaders, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, told IPS that the impressive turnout has no bearing on the freedom sentiment in Kashmir. ‘’We know that people have problems regarding infrastructure, electricity and drinking water. So, it is not surprising if they vote for the resolution of these day-to-day issues."

According to the Election Commission of India, the federal agency which conducted the elections in Kashmir, more than 60 percent of voters exercised their franchise.

"Though it needs to be appreciated that the elections – which replaced the four-month long direct federal rule in Kashmir – were held in a fair manner, India should not get complacent about it,’’ Wani said.

Wani says that the dialogue process among India, Pakistan and Kashmiris had actually helped to bring down violence and the role of non-state actors [militants] in Kashmir and, therefore, this needs to be restarted.

India and Pakistan have fought two wars over Kashmir after gaining their independence from British rule in 1947. The two south Asian neighbours began a peace process in 2004, but this appears to have stalled following the November attacks in Mumbai.

‘’Lately things have been working to New Delhi's advantage,’’ says Wani. ‘’Regionally, it has been able to maintain its presence in Afghanistan. There is now an India-friendly, democratically-elected government in Bangladesh.’’

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed, whose traditionally pro-India, Awami League scored a landslide victory in the Bangladesh elections, has pledged to crack down on militant groups that were allegedly sheltered by her predecessor Khaleda Zia.

But India is not out of the woods yet. "There are 800 militants, including 300 foreigners, present in the valley as of now,’’ the director general of police in Indian Kashmir, Kuldeep Khuda, told media persons, last month.

Between 1989 and 2007 as many as 690 political activists, both separatist and mainstream, have fallen to the bullets of militant groups, according to official statistics.

Observers say the events of the past few months will have a bearing on Kashmir's future. "This is going to determine the pattern of future events. It is most likely that the political discourse in Kashmir might get redefined,'' says Showkat Sheikh, a political commentator.

"I think there would be less divergence between the pro-India politicians and pro-freedom politicians with people now making the politicians see ground realities,'' Wani said.

Wani believes that a coalition between a national party (Congress) which is active across India and a regional party (NC) represents both a challenge and a comfort zone for the new chief minister, 38-year-old Abdullah.

Abdullah is a third generation scion of the Sheikh family which has dominated Kashmiri politics since before the sub-continent gained independence from colonial rule in 1947.

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