By Adam Morrow
CAIRO, Nov 17 2009 (IPS)

As authorities consider suspending a whole academic year to check the spread of swine flu among school children there is a feeling that measures to contain the H1N1 virus – known to be less dangerous than the one responsible for seasonal flu – are going over the top.

“By all standards, the H1N1 virus in its current form is a weak one – comparable to seasonal influenza – with a fatality rate in Egypt of one percent or less,” Dr. Mohamed Awad Tageddin, professor of respiratory diseases at Cairo’s Ain Shams University, told IPS. “More than 99 percent of those who contracted the virus in Egypt have recovered.”

Authorities in this country – where the H1N1 virus first appeared in early June – have taken drastic steps to contain the virus, beginning with the delay of the academic year for all schools and universities by one week.

Also, in order to reduce congestion in Egypt’s crowded classrooms, school days have been split into three shifts. This has, however, shortened periods from 45 minutes to 30 minutes.

While these measures may reduce the chances of infection critics say could take a toll on the general state of education in Egypt.

“Students will get half as much classroom time,” Dr. Hamdi Hassan, a medical doctor and MP for the Muslim Brotherhood opposition movement, told IPS. “Such measures are sure to have a negative effect on the educational process in Egypt, which is already in shambles,’’ he said.

Concerned parents complain that reduced class-time will also add to their financial burdens.

“In order to pass the final exams, my children will need to have private lessons which, like everything else, have only become more expensive,” Nagle Badr, 37-year-old housewife and mother of two, told IPS. “All our income will end up going towards private lessons.”

According to a Nov. 13 health ministry statement, a total of 2,379 cases of H1N1 infection have been detected in Egypt to date, of which 2,180 have recovered. Of the rest 193 are currently receiving treatment, while seven people -none of them students – have reportedly died of the virus. So far, 862 cases have been registered in schools and 91 in universities.

If the academic year is suspended lessons would be broadcast via state television or the Internet and final exams conducted online.

Parents dread the prospect. “I can provide some lessons myself, but many parents in Egypt are illiterate – what are they supposed to do? It would be a disaster for education,’’ said Badr.

“Lessons on television or the Internet should be considered a supplement to, not a substitute for, classroom learning,” said Meneci. “Neither teachers nor students have been trained to give or take exams online.”

“We don’t even have Internet,” complained Badr. “Lessons may be broadcast on television, but if there is no teacher to answer questions or ensure students are paying attention, my 13-year-old son won’t be able to concentrate.”

“This experiment – conducting final exams online – is sure to be a total failure,” warned Hassan. “Some 40 percent of the population is illiterate, let alone have the ability to use modern means of communication technology like the Internet.”

Given the relatively low fatality rate associated with the virus, many critics see the measures now being mooted by the government as excessive.

“Only seven people in Egypt have died so far from H1N1,” said Hassan. “The lengths the government is going to – with the stated aim of combating the virus – seem to be out of proportion with its seriousness.”

Hassan’s assertions appear to be borne out by local medical authorities.

“H1N1 is a weak virus, the fatality rate of which is unlikely to exceed its current rate of 1.3 percent worldwide,” Dr. Hamdi Menaa, director of the government-run Al-Khazindar hospital in Cairo, told IPS. “In fact, it’s less deadly than seasonal influenza, which has a 3 – 4 percent fatality rate.”

“Those who are dying of H1N1 are either the elderly or very young children or were already suffering from chronic health problems,” Menaa added. “Most people are quickly recovering – usually in four or five days – often without any medical treatment.”

Menaa blamed the media for “exaggerating the crisis and causing unnecessary panic among the public.”

Tageddin, who served as minister of health from 2002 to 2005, said the H1N1 virus does spread faster than seasonal flu virus and tends to infect young people. “But its fatality rate in Egypt remains less than one percent.”

“The World Health Organisation declared H1N1 to be a ‘geographic epidemic,’ based on its geographic proliferation – not on the number of fatalities associated with it,” explained Tageddin. “The virus does not and will not represent a serious threat unless it mutates into something more dangerous.”

“Only a few people – and no student – have died from the disease, which doesn’t represent a real health crisis,” said Badr. “The real crisis will be if they end up suspending school because of it.”

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