By Marwaan Macan-Markar
BANGKOK, Aug 21 2011 (IPS)

As she stepped into her role as an ingénue on the macho stage of Thai politics, the backers of Yingluck Shinawatra, the country’s first woman prime minister, had hoped she would enjoy a honeymoon period.

But that was a high expectation in a country fractured by deep political and social divides over the past five years, even though the photogenic 44-year-old had the weight of a strong mandate behind her.

“They are not giving her a break,” confided a highly placed source within Phue Thai (For Thais), the party that Yingluck heads. “It is okay to attack a new government after some weeks, a month, but not so soon.”

The verbal arrows directed at the Yingluck administration since Aug. 15, its first day in office, has prompted some Phue Thai insiders to wonder how long this Southeast Asian kingdom’s 28th prime minister will last.

“Some have said six months; some say she may last for two years,” a source close to the premier, told IPS. “No one is talking of her completing the full four-year term.”

Chaturon Chaiseng, veteran politician and former cabinet minister, had warned, shortly after Phue Thai secured a convincing majority at the Jul. 3 general elections, winning 265 seats of the 500 contested in the parliament, that its government would be short-lived. “They (Phue Thai) cannot take it for granted that they will be in office for two years,” Chaturon said in an interview. “The elites will always conspire against the popular will, the majority of the voters, as they have done since the 2006 coup.”

They closed ranks to welcome the country’s 18th coup in September 2006, when the military ousted the twice-elected former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the current premier’s eldest brother. That putsch was described as ‘Thai-style democracy.’

The same traditional elites and their supporters now appear determined to strike before another Shinawatra-led government gets on its feet. They have criticised Phue Thai polices that resonated with voters – a promise to raise the daily minimum wage to 300 baht (10 dollars), guarantee a monthly salary of 500 dollars for new graduates entering the state sector and free tablet computers for primary school students.

“Even before the new prime minister was sworn in, the private sector attacked the new government on the 10 dollar and the 500 dollar policies,” says Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat, Thailand analyst for the International Crisis Group, the Brussels-based think tank. “They should have waited till the new government presented the new policies in parliament.”

In comparison, the just defeated prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, enjoyed a better reception by the traditional political institutions after he came to power in December 2008, following a controversial court ruling and a backroom-deal shaped by the military. “Abhisit enjoyed a longer honeymoon from the establishment,” Rungrawee added. “The mainstream media reflected this view.”

Discernible here is the political fault line that has, since Thaksin’s ouster, become a feature of the kingdom’s politics. It has pit a majority, with faith in the electoral process, against a powerful minority ready to grab power through extra-constitutional means.

In early 2008, Samak Sundaravej, another new premier who had the backing of Thaksin and had won convincingly at the polls, was denied a honeymoon period.

“We have a precedent to what we are witnessing now. Go back to 2008, when Samak was elected,” notes Thitinan Pongsudhirak, political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “It suggests that a strong democratic mandate is not enough to govern Thailand.”

“It reveals the forces outside the democratic process waiting to destabilise an elected government,” he explained. “Many people in Thailand are aware of this. They will be looking for the signals now from the forces outside parliament.”

Keeping such forces, including the military, happy looms up as a challenge for Yingluck, who was propelled from political obscurity to power in less than two months. Till mid-May she had moved in the shadow of her brother, heading a real estate company that was part of Thaksin’s billion-dollar business empire.

But Yingluck proved a formidable campaigner after Thaksin, currently living in exile to avoid a two-year jail term, chose her to head Phue Thai.

Yingluck has had to repeatedly say that she is no proxy for her brother or a political puppet. She has tried to charm her detractors with statements such as, “I will be myself.”

Thaksin may have added to his younger sibling’s political plight by calling her his ‘clone.’ The outspoken political exile has also been accused of interfering with the policies – including foreign affairs – of the Yingluck administration.

“Any decision by the government to help Thaksin will trigger a reaction,” says Rungrawee of the Crisis Group. “Thaksin’s shadow has also deprived Yingluck of a honeymoon.”

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