Israel not providing a just and fair peace plan will inevitably lead to future conflicts with more deaths, injuries, displacements and destruction. Credit: UNRWA

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Dec 10 2024 (IPS)

After the Hamas-led attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, Israel retaliated with a war in Gaza involving bombings, shootings and blockades but with no explicit plan for achieving peace with the Palestinians.

It remains unclear what the Israeli government is trying to achieve with its continuing war in Gaza and what its postwar plan is. While Israeli leaders have vowed to maintain security control in Gaza after the war, they have not clearly stated what that control might entail.

A former Israeli defense minister said that Israel’s government with the support of far-right politicians was aiming to occupy, annex and ethnically cleanse Gaza and build Israeli settlements there. He accused the Israeli government of committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in Gaza.

It remains unclear what the Israeli government is trying to achieve with its continuing war in Gaza and what its postwar plan is. While Israeli leaders have vowed to maintain security control in Gaza after the war, they have not clearly stated what that control might entail

Some Israeli government ministers and far-right lawmakers also said that their military control over Gaza should pave the way for renewed Jewish settlement. They called for Arab residents to leave Gaza so that Jewish Israelis can populate the coastal strip.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister and his former defense chief for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict. The ICC judges said there were reasonable grounds to believe that those two Israeli officials were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution and starvation as a weapon of war as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza.

Furthermore, Amnesty International recently issued a landmark report indicating that it had gathered sufficient evidence to conclude that Israel has committed and is continuing to commit genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

The report found that during its military offensive following the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023, Israel had unleashed “hell and destruction” on Palestinians in Gaza brazenly, continuously and with total impunity, and obstructed humanitarian aid reaching the Palestinian population. Amnesty International said that month after month, Israel has treated Palestinians in Gaza as a subhuman group unworthy of human rights and dignity.

Israel’s actions in Gaza, the ICJ’s decisions and Amnesty International’s recent report are contributing to serious political problems and demonstrations worldwide. Protests and progressive activism opposing Israel’s actions, which are viewed as having created a humanitarian disaster in Gaza, have taken place across many countries and regions.

Various peace proposals have been offered to resolve the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Table 1).

The proposal widely supported by most governments, international agencies and non-governmental organizations is the two-state solution. That proposal recommends establishing an independent state for Palestinians alongside that of Israel with the two states existing peacefully within recognized borders and security ensured for both nations.

The two-state solution has been the goal of the international community for decades, dating back to the 1947 United Nations Partition Plan. Many countries, including China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, believe that the creation of a Palestinian state with guarantees for Israel’s security is the only way to finally bring peace and stability to the Middle East.

In a new resolution passed by a 157-8 vote on 3 December, the UN General Assembly expressed “unwavering support, in accordance with international law, for the two-state solution of Israel and Palestine.” The resolution also called on Israel to withdraw from the occupied Palestinian territories and pushed for the creation of a Palestinian state, convening an international conference in June to try to jumpstart a two-state solution.

Although it is not a member state of the United Nations, the State of Palestine has been officially recognized as a sovereign state by 146 countries, or 75 percent of the United Nations member states. Those countries represent nearly 90 percent of the world’s population.

The Israeli government as well as the Knesset, have rejected the two-state solution. However, they have not offered an alternative solution to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians.

The Israeli government has stated that it will not compromise on full Israeli security control over all the territory west of Jordan. In addition, despite the ICJ decision mandating Israel to end its occupation and dismantle its unlawful settlements, Israel is continuing with its expansion of Israeli settlements and apartheid in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Some have concluded that the two-state solution is no longer an option primarily due to today’s realities. Approximately 750,000 Israelis, or about 10 percent of Israel’s Jewish population, are currently residing in settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

As a result of those demographic realities, the de facto option to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict appears to be the one-state solution.

The one-state solution with its total population of approximately 15.5 million would provide equal rights for all its citizens, irrespective of their religious affiliation. The one-state would be similar to other democracies where equal rights and opportunities are provided to all citizens of every religious group.

Israel, however, rejects the one-state solution. It sees a single state with equal rights for all its citizens of the various religious groups would undermine the Jewish character of Israel. Whereas the current proportion Jewish of the Israeli population is about 77 percent, the Jewish proportion in the larger one-state would be approximately 50 percent.

Other proposals that have been offered to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict include: a confederation of Israel, Jordan and Palestine; a federation of smaller Palestinian provinces or cantons; autonomy-plus for the Palestinians; and the establishment of a Jewish Greater Israel.

Many Israelis of the religious far right are seeking the establishment of a Jewish Greater Israel. Their desired nation includes the occupied Palestinian territories and its population would have a large Jewish majority. Due to the existing demographics, a Jewish Greater Israel would necessarily involve the departure, expulsion or transfer of very large numbers of the non-Jewish population currently residing in the occupied Palestinian territories.

The serious human consequences of the Israel-Gaza wars continue to rise and are being regularly updated. The current reported levels of mortality, injuries, displacement and destruction provide an intelligible picture of the wars’ consequences on casualties, living conditions and the wellbeing of the populations in Gaza, Israel, Lebanon and elsewhere.

Although the true mortality figure is estimated to be many times larger, the total number of reported deaths of Israelis, Lebanese, Palestinians and others resulting from the Israel-Gaza war during the period from 7 October 2023 to 7 December 2024 is approximately 52,000.

The overwhelming majority of those reported deaths, 88 percent, were to Palestinians. Also, a large majority of those deaths, nearly 70 percent, were women and children. The Palestinian deaths were followed by Lebanese at 8 percent, Israelis at 3 percent and others, such as journalists and media workers, at 1 percent (Figure 1).

Source: Israeli Government, Ministries of Health of Gaza and Lebanon and UNOCHA.

A similar pattern is observed with respect to the numbers of reported injuries. Although the true figure of injuries will certainly be considerably larger, the total number of reported injuries is approximately 140,000. Again, the large majority of the reported injuries, about 81 percent, were to Palestinians with many being children. The Palestinians were followed by Lebanese at 12 percent, Israelis at 6 percent and others at 1 percent (Figure 2).

Source: Israeli Government, Ministries of Health of Gaza and Lebanon and UNOCHA.

The Gaza-Israel war was also responsible for the displacement of more than 3 million people. Approximately 60 percent of those displaced were Palestinians, followed by Lebanese at 38 percent and Israel at 3 percent.

Beyond the displacement of people from their homes, Israel’s bombings have damaged or destroyed approximately two-thirds of the buildings in Gaza and about 38 percent of the buildings in villages in southern Lebanon as well scores of buildings in Beirut and Baalbek. In addition, the Hezbollah rocket attacks in northern Israel have damaged or destroyed about 9,000 buildings and 350 agricultural sites.

In sum, it is clear that over the past fourteen months, the conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Israel and elsewhere have resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries and displacements as well as extensive destruction of buildings and community infrastructure, notably impacting the Palestinian population in Gaza.

The decisions of ICJ concerning Israel’s crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict and the findings of Amnesty International’s report stating that Israel has committed and is continuing to commit genocide against Palestinians in Gaza constitute an indisputable indictment of Israel’s military actions in Gaza. Simply rejecting the ICJ’s decisions and denying the findings of Amnesty International will not diminish that momentous indictment.

It is also clear that to achieve a lasting peace with the Palestinians, Israel needs to move beyond rejecting the various peace proposals. The Israeli government needs to put forth an explicit peace proposal indicating how it envisions resolving the decades-old conflict with the Palestinians. Israel not providing a just and fair peace plan will inevitably lead to future conflicts with more deaths, injuries, displacements and destruction.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.