Liquid Natural Gas tank at the port of Tacoma Washington, United States. Credit: Shutterstock

By Philippe Benoit and Anne-Sophie Corbeau
WASHINGTON DC, Apr 10 2024 (IPS)

Earlier this year, the Biden administration paused action on pending approvals for U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to countries without a U.S. free-trade agreement, with President Biden citing ”the urgency of the climate crisis.” The decision was hailed by climate activists and criticized by oil and gas industry representatives.

While the Biden administration intended to send a message about addressing climate change, it is important to place the LNG story within the broader emissions context. LNG exports are a significant and visible part of the natural gas emissions landscape, but ultimately achieving international climate goals will require more actions that target domestic gas and global fossil fuel consumption.

LNG exports are a significant and visible part of the natural gas emissions landscape, but ultimately achieving international climate goals will require more actions that target domestic gas and global fossil fuel consumption

According to the International Energy Agency, natural gas demand worldwide totaled 4,067 billion cubic meters in 2022, including 919 billion cubic meters in the U.S. The combustion of this natural gas produced 7.5 gigatons of carbon dioxide globally. This includes 1.7 gigatons in the U.S., which is 38 percent of U.S. emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

Importantly, these figures do not include natural gas-related methane emissions, a powerful greenhouse gas that substantially increases the climate impact of gas use. In 2022, the IEA estimated that global methane emissions from the energy sector were 135 million tons in addition to combustion emissions. Oil and gas — often produced together — accounted for 58 percent of these methane emissions globally, with the U.S. responsible for around 12 percent of the global total.

Methane emissions estimates vary substantially, prompting efforts at improved satellite and other detection methods.

LNG exports have been a growing part of the natural gas landscape but still represent a minority share. Global LNG trade reached around 550 billion cubic meters in 2023, representing about 13 percent of global gas demand. The U.S. LNG story is even more striking. Up until 2016, the U.S. exported only a limited amount from one facility. The shale gas revolution not only made U.S. gas cheaper it also led U.S. gas production to almost double over the past two decades, fueling a surge in LNG exports.

US LNG capacity has grown from 0.6 billion cubic meters per year in 2015 to 124 billion cubic meters per year in 2023. LNG plants currently under construction are unaffected by the pause and will bring the capacity to over 230 billion cubic meters per year by the end of the decade. Importantly, even after these new LNG export facilities come online by 2030, they will represent only 22 percent of U.S. domestic natural gas production and 25 percent of U.S. gas consumption.

These figures demonstrate that while LNG exports represent an important and growing use of domestically produced gas, natural gas consumption within the U.S. and its related emissions represent a bigger climate challenge. What can and will be done to address these emissions?

In this regard, it is important to understand how natural gas is consumed in the U.S. The biggest user is the power sector (40 percent), followed by industry, which it also uses it as feedstock for chemical processes (26 percent) and buildings (24 percent). Gas demand in the power sector could increase further if recent projections regarding rapidly increasing power demand prove accurate. These uses drive where emissions reductions are needed and the corresponding measures.

The literature is rich with ways to address domestic natural gas emissions in the United States and elsewhere. One example is replacing natural gas in the power sector with renewables and other lower emissions alternatives. More efficient energy use can dampen or otherwise reduce the need for natural gas combustion. Adding carbon capture, use and storage technologies where feasible and economic can also reduce emissions, notably in industry and power. Moreover, combining these strategies to different degrees can provide even stronger solutions than implementing them independently.

It is also necessary to stress the importance of methane emissions flowing from the domestic production and processing of natural gas, whether it is consumed domestically or exported as LNG or pipeline gas. Reducing these methane emissions along the whole gas value chain must remain a focus of climate action given its short- to medium-term impact on global warming.

Reducing natural gas and other emissions will require action extending beyond the federal government. This includes efforts by U.S. states such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative carbon market program and California’s 2022 climate action plan, as well as industry, businesses, civil society and other stakeholders. It also includes influencing other countries.

While the U.S. currently produces only about 14 percent of global CO2 emissions, as the world’s largest economy, the wealthiest nation by net worth and the second-highest emitter of greenhouse gases behind China, it sets the tone on international climate action. Without strong U.S. leadership, emissions from several countries can be expected to remain well above what is needed to avoid dangerous climate change. Understanding and addressing the potential emissions generated by US LNG exports is part of setting that tone, and it carries significance beyond the actual size and share of the LNG-related emissions.

LNG is an important element in the climate agenda, but only one part of the equation. Compared to domestic natural gas consumption or global energy use overall, it is not even the biggest part of the story.

Addressing emissions relating to the domestic use of natural gas and other fossil fuels and encouraging action abroad by China and other countries, should take up the bulk of our efforts. LNG-related emissions are important, but the weight of the climate change challenge lies beyond it.

This oped was first published in The Hill

Philippe Benoit is the managing director at Global Infrastructure Advisory Services 2050. He previously held management positions at the World Bank and the International Energy Agency, as well as an investment banker specializing in natural gas projects.

Anne-Sophie Corbeau leads the research on natural gas and hydrogen at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School for International and Public Affairs and is a visiting professor at the University of SciencesPo.

View of the Itaipú hydroelectric plant shared by Brazil and Paraguay on the Paraná River. CREDIT: Mario Osava/IPS

By Philippe Benoit and Anne-Sophie Corbeau
WASHINGTON DC, Aug 3 2023 (IPS)

The Colorado river basin has recently been wracked by an extended drought which brought to the fore major concerns regarding hydroelectricity production. Up on the Colorado sits the iconic Hoover Dam, which transforms water into enough electricity to power 1.3 million people in Nevada, Arizona and California.

Although an agreement was reached by the three dependent Western states to cut water use, it served as a reminder of the dependency of energy production on water … a dependency that is being subjected to greater uncertainties because of climate change.

This phenomenon is not only impacting citizens dependent on the Colorado River but stretches across the United States and the world. Over the past two years, Europe, China, Brazil, Iraq, the Horn of Africa, have experienced the worst droughts in (sometimes hundreds of) years.

The energy-for-water dimension will become increasingly fraught, driven by the combination of climate change, growing populations and increasing prosperity. Not only do we need to redouble our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we also require stronger concerted actions on adaptation and resilience

Importantly, the water-to-energy relationship also runs the other way: water production and delivery are themselves dependent on energy.

Moreover, the need of water services for energy is likely to increase, driven by growing populations, rising prosperity (notably in developing countries) and novel uses of energy for water in desalination plants and elsewhere. As we feel the impact of increasingly intense heat waves and droughts, the time has come to revisit the challenges of the water-energy nexus.

The dependence of energy production on water has long been recognized by energy experts, but has surprised many others. Beyond very visible hydropower plants, like the Hoover Dam, water is used to cool down nuclear power plants (through the cooling towers emitting steam that many may have noticed, without perhaps always identifying the purpose), as well as in natural gas and coal-fired plants. Water is also used in various stages of the energy supply chain, including for production and processing.

Climate change is expected, through its impact on water supply and availability, to increase vulnerabilities in energy production. For example, changing rain patterns will create uncertainties for hydropower production, which represents 15 percent of global power generation, even if the overall level of rainfall doesn’t change.

Heat waves have reduced water levels and raised water temperature above the levels at which water can be discharged back into rivers, restricting the operation of many nuclear power plants.

And in a completely different dynamic, various coal power plants dependent on barge transport for resupply have seen their operations imperiled by low water levels. These are aspects that have received some, but altogether inadequate, attention to date.

Both hydroelectricity and nuclear generation, two low-carbon sources of electricity, are expected to increase significantly over decades to come under various government programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Moreover, even as the need for water to cool down coal-fired plants is eventually expected to drop as countries transition from this carbon intensive fuel source, new uses for water are emerging, including for the production of hydrogen through electrolysis.

What has attracted less attention is the impact of growing demand for energy from developments in water systems. The UN projects that the world’s population will increase by over 1.2 billion by 2040, with about two-thirds of that increase occurring in emerging economies and other developing countries.

These nations are also projected to see significant increases in their income levels, increasing the ability of their populations to access water services, at home, at the office or for pleasure. Moreover, the demand for food is also similarly projected to increase, and with that, the need for more water irrigation services inevitably powered by energy.

These factors are helping to drive an increase in the demand for energy. For example, the International Energy Agency projects that the amount of energy required by the water sector will more than double within 20 years. The major driver under the IEA’s modelling is the demand from desalination plants.

These are no longer confined to the dryer climates of the Middle East and North Africa, but also in regions which once thought that their water supplies were ample, such as Europe or Asia. Other important growing demand for water is also coming from waste water treatment plants and the supply of clean drinking water and sanitation services to both the billions of poor who currently lack it and the other more prosperous billions across the developing world whose consumption is projected to increase.

Unfortunately, efforts to meet this demand will be exacerbated by climate change. For example, droughts are likely to require the transport of water over longer distances to satisfy the needs of populations suffering from water scarcity, an effort that will require more energy.

Similarly, over the past year, droughts have heightened the possibility of water restrictions for millions of people in Southern Europe, including drinking water, which might in turn require more desalination.

But though tensions are inevitable, actions can be taken to, if not avoid the problems, dampen its impact. Actions lie in the water or energy sectors, and, often, at the intersection of the two. In the water sector, these include reducing water losses, allowing construction of rainwater collection tanks for agricultural use, increasing waste-water facilities, and fast-tracking the installation of desalination plants.

In energy, transitioning to solar irrigation pumps is something that can help everywhere, in rich and poor countries alike. At the intersection, actions include hydropower plant design and management that are better adapted to the changing rainfall patterns of the future, building more efficient water-based cooling systems for other plants, and even greater use of artificial intelligence.

The energy-for-water dimension will become increasingly fraught, driven by the combination of climate change, growing populations and increasing prosperity. Not only do we need to redouble our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we also require stronger concerted actions on adaptation and resilience.

Like for energy, we need to be more efficient at using water, whether this is for households needs, industrial processes, agriculture or energy; meanwhile concerted action and discussion between those sectors will be needed.

The recent events along the Colorado River serve as an important wake-up call. Water is at the essence of our quality of life, and energy is an integral part of that story. We need to do a better job of managing our thirst for water and the energy required to satisfy that demand … and we need to do this in the face of a changing climate.

(First published in The Hill on July 7, 2023)

Philippe Benoit is research director for Global Infrastructure Analytics and Sustainability 2050 and previously held management positions at the World Bank and the International Energy Agency. He is also adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Anne-Sophie Corbeau is global research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and a visiting professor at Sciences Po.