President Rodrigo Duterte is unlikely to lift martial law in Mindanao before the end of 2017 because of a possible spillover of violence brought about by the fighting in Marawi City to the Muslim autonomous region.

In remarks before the military’s Eastern Mindanao Command in Davao City on Friday, the President said he wanted the conflict over soon, but would rely on the military’s recommendation on when to lift martial rule, which he imposed on May 23 after the attack on Marawi by the Islamic State (IS)-linked Maute group.

“I was thinking that we could lift it (martial law) earlier but the way it looks, there’s a possible spillover (of the Marawi conflict) in ARMM and in Buldon,” Duterte said, referring to the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and Buldon, Maguindanao.

“Let us see. If it is to the interest of the country that I will lift it, I will lift it. But if not, we just have to continue with the martial law. And mind you, when I said that I leave it to the military and the police to solve the problem, ‘yun na ‘yun. Hindi na ako makialam (I won’t interfere),” he said during ceremonies marking the command’s 11th anniversary.

“I enjoin the troops to continue being faithful to their sworn oath to protect and defend our sovereignty and our peoples, especially as martial law remains in effect in Mindanao, amid the persisting threats of terrorism and insurgency,” the President added.

Duterte placed the entire Mindanao under martial rule on May 23, the day the Maute group attacked Marawi City. In July, Congress granted Duterte’s request for an extension until yearend.

Fighting has so far claimed the lives of 620 Islamist fighters, 136 state forces, and 45 civilians. Three more names were added to the list of soldiers killed on Friday when an improvised explosive device exploded at the strategic Bangolo Bridge, which the military was retaking

Duterte, in a speech on Wednesday, said he told government troops engaged in the conflict in Marawi City that the options were theirs on how they would end the war.

“I instructed them to act slowly. But up to this time, there is stalemate. And other senators said, ‘There has to be a time when you have to stop – stopping the armed forces,’” Duterte said.

“The last time I was there, around five days, six days ago, I finally said the options [are]already yours because we cannot have a stalemate for over one year,” he added.

The lengthy battle has allowed government forces to retake the grand mosque in Marawi City, which is deemed as the Islamic city’s “most significant landmark.”

Military spokesman Brig. Gen. Restituto Padilla Jr. said that the troops conducted an “envelopmental approach” to ensure that the Muslim place of worship would not be damaged.

Duterte admitted that security forces wanted to bomb the mosque to expedite the operations against the Islamist fighters.

He, however, reminded the troops that they must not resort to such violence because it would only cause “more animosity and outright hostility against the government.”

“They really want to bomb the mosque to capture or kill their leaders there and in the process, sacrifice the hostages who are all Filipinos – maybe Maranao and a mingling of Christians and Tagalogs,” Duterte said.

“I said no, it will just create more animosity and outright to hostility against the government. Maranaos will not forgive us…. So that’s the story why it’s taking so long,” he added.

Marawi war over in weeks – Lorenzana

Clashes between government troopers and Maute terrorists will likely end in three weeks to one month, with soldiers treading carefully in clearing mosques supposedly housing some extremists, according to Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana.

“I am happy to announce that the crisis in Marawi is about to end,” he told reporters Thursday night.

“What the ground commanders have told me is that, maybe, there will be three weeks to one month until this war ends. The mosques serve as a big challenge, so as much as possible, we do not want to assault the mosques that is why our troops are being careful,” Lorenzana added.

Lorenzana also said it would possible for the Maranaos to go back to their houses before the holidays.

Armed Forces chief Gen. Eduardo Año had said the Maute’s strongholds covered only 500 square meters of the city, but according to the Defense chief, “it’s still big enough.”

“Even if you say that 250 meters on the other side, and 250 on the other, that is still one quadrant which is still considered as a big [area],” Lorenzana said.

At least nine buildings, the most damaged by the conflict in the Islamic city, were recently cleared by soldiers, the military said.

Lorenzana said Task Force Bangon Marawi, which he leads, had begun putting up shelters to be distributed to displaced Marawi citizens.

This story was originally published by The Manila Times, Philippines

Southeast Asian leaders are likely to avoid any official mention at their Manila summit this week of an arbitration ruling that had nullified China’s massive claims on the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), according to a draft of their final declaration.

But the draft also expresses “serious concerns” over the “escalation of activities” in the disputed waters, which Southeast Asian countries fear could destabilize the region.

LAST INSTRUCTIONS National Capital Region Police Office chief Oscar Albayalde gives final instructions to Manila policemen who will be part of the security force to guard delegates to the Association of Southeast Asian Summit. PHOTO BY RENE H. DILAN

The final version is to be released on Saturday, but major points including those concerning the South China Sea are expected to remain largely unchanged.

“We shared the serious concern expressed by some Leaders over recent developments and escalation of activities in the area which may further raise tensions and erode trust and confidence in the region,” the draft statement said.

“We reaffirmed the importance of enhancing mutual trust and confidence, exercising self-restraint in the conduct of activities, avoiding actions that may further complicate the situation, and pursuing peaceful resolution of disputes, including through full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to the threat or use of force, in accordance with the universally recognized principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos),” it added.

Issue of concern
The Department of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday maintained that the South China Sea remains to be an issue of concern but the government expects discussions of Asean leaders to be on a positive tone.

DFA spokesperson Robespierre Bolivar said that President Rodrigo Duterte, as chairman of Asean, plays a bigger role in steering discussions.

“Of course he can raise more issues, speak more. But definitely it is one of our interests as a country, definitely the president will speak on this,” Bolivar said.

‘Progress’ in code of conduct
The Philippines is hosting this year’s Asean summit, as Duterte seeks closer ties with China while distancing the country from the United States, Beijing’s rival for influence in the Pacific.

Asean leaders, according to the draft, will also reaffirm “the importance of freedom of navigation in and over-flight over the South China Sea.”

They will also underscore “the importance of the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in its entirety.”

“We were pleased with the progress to complete a framework of the Code of Conduct (COC), in order to facilitate the early adoption of the COC within the Asean-China process,” the regional bloc’s 10 leaders will say.

The Asean member-states are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam. Four of Asean members – Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam – are claiming parts of the disputed island, while China and Taiwan are claiming most of its features.

In a landmark ruling in July last year, a United Nations-backed arbitration tribunal invalidated China’s expansive claims, including in areas where Beijing had reclaimed islands, and admonished China for blocking Filipino fishermen at Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, a traditional fishing ground.
China refuses to recognize the July 12, 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands.

The case was filed by Duterte’s predecessor Benigno Aquino 3rd, who challenged Beijing through legal and diplomatic avenues including Asean events. This led to a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations.

Duterte, who assumed the presidency shortly before the ruling was issued, has chosen to pursue friendly ties with China to try to win billions of dollars’ worth of trade and aid.

As part of that, he has said he will not use the ruling to pressure China.

The draft follows a similar statement at an Asean summit in Laos last year when intensive Chinese lobbying helped to ensure there was no mention of the ruling.

Philippine diplomats have said the “framework” code of conduct for South China Sea might be completed by June, with China expressing optimism about the talks.

But negotiations for an actual code have already taken 15 years, after Asean and China adopted a non-binding agreement in 2002 to discourage hostile acts.

Meanwhile, China has built its artificial islands, which are capable of serving as military bases.

“What’s the point of having a code of conduct if China has successfully militarized the South China Sea?” Renato de Castro, international studies professor at Manila’s De La Salle University, told AFP.

This story was originally published by The Manila Times, Philippines