Monitoring Iran and promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The IAEA applies safeguards to verify states are honoring their international legal obligations to use nuclear material for peaceful purposes only. Credit: IAEA

By David L. Phillips
LONDON, Jun 23 2025 (IPS)

A deal between the US and Iran is possible if Iran’s bottom line — its right to nuclear enrichment — and Israel’s bottom line, guarantees that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb are met. This “win-win” outcome would require Donald Trump’s personal engagement. With weapons turned to plowshares, Trump would be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize.

For sure, it’s hard to imagine a path forward in current circumstances. The region is embroiled in conflict. Iran has been humiliated by Israel’s attack. Its nuclear program has been seriously damaged. Israeli air power has destroyed air defenses, incapacitated Iran’s missiles, and killed its military leaders and scientists.

Israel’s actions in the past year have changed the balance of power, neutralizing Hezbollah, Hamas and eliminating the Pro-Iranian Assad regime in Syria.

Javad Zarif, Iran’s former foreign minister and nuclear negotiator, often spoke to me about “Persian pride.” To move forward, a peace deal would have to address Iran’s battered psyche and Israel’s sense of vulnerability.

I envision a deal that would allow Iran to maintain its enrichment facility deep underground at Fordo. The International Atomic Energy Agency would need unfettered access to Fordo ensuring that enrichment was capped at 7 percent, well below the level needed for a nuclear bomb.

Iran’s nuclear program has been set-back as a result of Israeli strikes. Natanz and other enrichment facilities have been damaged and would be permanently dismantled. The Isfahan nuclear complex, which includes a uranium-conversion facility turning “yellowcake” into uranium hexafluoride, has been disabled by Israel’s air strikes and would be decommissioned.

The Tehran Research Center, which manufactures advanced rotors for enrichment, is destroyed. So is the workshop at Karaj, where other uranium enrichment components were manufactured.

Missile and drone attacks are another concern. The US would give security guarantees guarding against such attacks. It would commit to providing Israel with additional Thermal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery systems, an effective mobile surface to air interceptor that shoots down incoming ballistic missiles at a distance of 1,800 miles. Iran’s missile system has been degraded but it is not destroyed.

For the foreseeable future, the US would deploy an aircraft carrier group in the Arabian Sea. Each carrier has more than 60 war planes that can deter missiles and drones strikes. Fighter jets already deployed in the region would also be available for Israel’s defense.

Netanyahu wants Trump to use the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a “bunker buster”, to take out the Fordo facility. Ford is buried deep underground in a mountain side. Only the US has bunker busters to disable Fordo’s enrichment process.

A bunker buster is designed to penetrate hardened targets using precision-guided 30,000-pound bombs armed with a 5,300-pound warhead. More than one bomb will be needed to disable Fordo. The mission’s success is uncertain. Fordo adjoins a base of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). Its air force could take down the B2 planes needed to deliver bunker buster ordinance.

Trump is under pressure from Netanyahu to attack Fordo. So far, Trump is keeping his options open. Trump insists on Iran’s “complete surrender”. The Ayatollah says Iran will never “grovel” to Washington. It is unlikely that Iran will waive a white flag. Resistance and martyrdom are at the core of Shiite beliefs.

Iran has signaled it is ready to meet US negotiators and discuss a ceasefire. An agreement would commit the US to never use bunker busters unless Iran weaponized its nuclear program.

Iran’s belligerent posture may change when the Iranian people take stock of the regime’s mismanagement. The Iranian people are fed up with their pariah status. Trump’s decision not to intervene would increase the prospects of Iran’s home-grow democratic transition, the best guarantor of peace.

The deal could reap economic and diplomatic benefits. An agreement could catalyze reform across the region, including progress in Gaza. A ceasefire leading to an independent Palestinian state could result in Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the Abraham Accords and normalization of relations with Israel.

Is this positive vision possible? If we can imagine it, we can make it a reality.

Peacebuilding would start with a deal to fully, finally and verifiably eliminate the possibility that Iran’s nuclear program would be used for anything but peaceful purposes.

Current events in the Middle East are nothing short of disastrous. They can, however, be a catalyst for transformation. Only the US can lead this process, and only Trump has the chutzpah to try it.

IPS UN Bureau

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Gaza power cut impacts safe water access for hundreds of thousands. Credit UNICEF

By David L. Phillips
NEW YORK, Mar 12 2025 (IPS)

Israel’s decision to suspend electricity supplies to Gaza has far-reaching consequences for daily life of Palestinians as well as Gaza’s reconstruction. Managing Gaza’s energy crisis will require the development of alternative supplies, which are found in off-shore natural gas fields that can be developed off the coast of Israel and Gaza in the Eastern Mediterranean (EastMed).

Gaza is undoubtedly facing an energy crisis. The main source of Gaza’s electricity is its power plant in Deir al-Balah and Israeli utility lines that transport electricity and make up nearly two-thirds of Gaza’s power supply. Gaza’s energy supplies were already limited before the war. Supplies have been further affected by damage to energy infrastructure during the Gaza War.

Deir al-Balah was bombed in 2023 by air strikes on Gaza’s energy infrastructure. As a result, Gaza was left with only diesel generators to power its essential services, including hospitals and desalination plants providing potable water. Natural gas is an alternative that can provide abundant power supplies and serve as a tool for peacebuilding.

Reserves of natural gas were found in Israel and Gaza in 2000. Exploration was undertaken within the framework of a licensing agreement between British Gas and the Palestinian National Authority. The discovered gas field, Gaza Marine 1 and 2, though modest in size, was considered one of the possible drivers of the Palestinian economy and a boost to regional energy cooperation.

Though the discovery was cause for hope, Hamas’s election in 2007 put a damper on the prospects for energy cooperation between Israel and Palestine. The opportunity diminished further with the discovery of major gas fields in the Israeli economic waters in 2009 and 2010. With new prospects coming on line, Israel simply has no incentive to allow the development of Marine 1 and 2.

The calculus for economic recovery changed in 2023 when Israel provided approval for the development of the Gaza Marine gas field, with the involvement of the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. It marked a watershed moment in Israel’s willingness to cooperate through production sharing agreements.

Both the goal of conflict resolution and the reconstruction of Gaza can benefit by incorporating Gaza and the broader Palestinian territories into a collaborative framework for energy development in the EastMed.

The United States can play a role by encouraging cooperation through the ‘3+1’ framework, which includes Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and the United States, as well as cooperation for extraction and transport with Egypt.

The East Med Gas Framework constitutes the first international organization to include both Israel and the Palestinian Authority, in which the US is an observer. President Donald Trump’s transactional approach may yield an opportunity for energy development with mutual benefit to both Isael and the Palestinians.

The EastMed presents an opportunity for the US to burnish its credentials as a peacemaker. During his first administration, Trump led the efforts for energy security in the EastMed and Europe. Trump signed the East Med Act, which was co-sponsored by Marco Rubio.

EastMed energy development relies on the interconnectedness of Gaza’s natural gas with European countries via pipelines, electric grids, integration of renewables, and energy efficiency standards. This strategy for interconnectedness would enhance stability and prosperity in Israel and the EastMed by bringing together Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and even Lebanon. The development of natural gas on the continental shelf of Gaza could be a game-changer.

The discovery of what may be the region’s largest natural gas field off the Egyptian coast and the newest discoveries of natural gas off the coast of Cyprus could represent a significant windfall, enhancing self-sufficiency and the region’s strategic energy importance.

Gaza’s energy development plays a twofold role. The volume of the Gaza marine reserves discovered by British Petroleum (BP) in 1999, is estimated at 1 to 1.4 trillion cubic feet (tcf). Combined with Israeli export infrastructure, these reserves can produce more than enough revenue for the reconstruction of Gaza.

Tapping into these reserves will have the added benefit of engaging the Palestinian Authority in a regional collaborative framework. Funds from these assets have the potential to produce revenue for reconstruction and services such as education and health care what would benefit Palestinians.

A Palestinian state with adequate capacity would further serve as a deterrent to radicalization by giving Palestinians self-determination, freedom of movement, statehood, and other rights guaranteed by international humanitarian law.

The end of conflict with Palestine would normalize ties between Israel and the Arab states. This is one of the main objectives of multilateral frameworks in the EastMed, involving Arab states such as Egypt and Jordan.

Regional energy cooperation would advance the process that started with the Camp David Accords in 1978, reinforced by the Abraham Accords in 2020, and the Negev Summit in 2022.

Not only will energy cooperation enhance security for Israel. Another geopolitical benefit includes limiting China’s influence. As an alternative to China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) will foster economic integration between Asia, the Persian Gulf and Europe.

IMEC would traverse both Arab states — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, as well as Israel. IMEC offers the ancillary benefit of bringing prosperity to Gaza, the Eastern Mediterranean, the broader Middle East, and Europe.

In November 2014, the first trilateral summit between Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt noted: “The unresolved Arab Israeli conflict remains the most serious threat to the region’s long-term security and stability.” When regional economic development benefits stakeholders, the calculus for peacebuilding can create conditions for diplomatic progress.

IPS UN Bureau

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President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran addresses the general debate of the General Assembly’s 79th session in September 2024. Credit: UN Photo/Loey Felipe

By David L. Phillips
WASHINGTON DC/OXFORD, Oct 9 2024 (IPS)

How will Israel respond to Iran’s recent ballistic missiles barrage? “Strategic patience” is the best course. Israel has its hands full with Hamas and Hezbollah. Now is not the time to escalate a new major war with Iran, which could have nuclear implications.

Israeli intelligence is still chafing from its failure to preempt Hamas’ attack on October 7, which killed 1,200 Israelis. In the year since Hamas attacked, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched operations that killed 41,000 Palestinians.

Its response has been brutal yet ineffective. Israel failed to capture the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar or gain the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages. A humanitarian catastrophe led to the starvation and displacement of more than 2 million people.

The IDF since taken a big step to redeem its tarnished reputation by deterring Iran’s missiles strikes. The “iron dome” repelled 190 ballistic missiles fired by Iran last week. Israel repelled another attack on April 13 involving 300 missile and attack drones, which caused little damage.

Iran was embarrassed by the sequence of events, which went far beyond its failed missile attacks. I know from Javad Zarif, Iran’s former foreign minister, that Persian pride is important to Iranians. Iran faced many setbacks in the past year. President Ibrahim Raisi died in a fiery helicopter crash.

Masoud Pezeshkian, who supports engagement with the United States, gained a plurality of the popular vote and became Iran’s president. The outcome was a rebuke to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his theocratic regime.

No event affected Iran more than the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. Nasrallah was a friend of and served as Iran’s most steadfast proxy for more than 30 years. Nasrallah was killed in an air strike in Beirut by 2,000 pound-bunker buster bombs that devastated the Southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahiyeh.

The air strike was another indignity following Israel’s sabotage of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies that killed scores of Hezbollah commanders and disabled its communications system.

Hezbollah’s mythical reputation for battlefield prowess was shattered. Hezbollah was the most significant of Iran’s proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Nasrallah fought ISIS, defended Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s civil war, and did the regime’s dirty work around the world.

Fearing his own assassination, Khamenei was removed to a secure location. He emerged in time for Friday prayers to defend Iran’s missile strikes on Israel as “correct, logical, and lawful” and to condemn Israel’s “astonishing crimes”.

Nasrallah’s death was a big blow to the Iranian regime. Iran was further humiliated by the assassination of Ismail Haniya, a senior Hamas figure staying in an official guest house while attending Raisi’s funeral in Tehran.

Netanyahu warned that no place in the Middle East is safe from Israel’s security services. He was right. In addition, economic sanctions have taken their toll on Iranians. Sanctions relief is a distant dream as the US and G7 allies tighten the screws on Iran’s economy.

Israel-Iran relations are at a fork in the road. President Joe Biden has urged Netanyahu to consider “alternatives” to attacking Iranian nuclear sites or destroying Iran’s oil infrastructure. There is an alternative conflict escalation.

Netanyahu and Khamenei should consider a new approach now that the shadow war is out in the open. Diplomacy would require assurances from Israel that it won’t launch a first strike against Iran. In turn, Iran must guarantee that its nuclear program won’t be weaponized.

Discreet discussions with the International Atomic Energy Agency would advance safeguards, including spot inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites and the reactivation of electronic surveillance. For sure, Israel will continue operations in Gaza. Israel will hunt Sinwar until he is eliminated. It cannot countenance another October 7.

In Lebanon, Israel has succeeded in killing Nasrallah and eliminating half of Hezbollah’s 150,000 missiles. Its ground operation in Southern Lebanon cannot be open-ended. Having a failed state on Israel’s northern border would result in continued instability and risk.

Regional progress would be impossible with a new front between Israel and Iran. Strategic patience means that Israel would bide its time until there is an opportunity for diplomatic progress. Diplomacy and de-escalation are preferable to war without end.

David L. Phillips is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program and a Visiting Research Scholar at Oxford University.

IPS UN Bureau

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The Israeli Prime Minister at the UN General Assembly sessions, September 2023. Credit: United Nations

By David L. Phillips
NEW YORK, Dec 22 2023 (IPS)

Benjamin Netanyahu must go. Under the guise of judicial reform, Netanyahu has undermined the rule of law and divided the country. He is toxic to Arab states, even those which have signed the Abraham Accords. Netanyahu has become an impediment to Israel’s democratic development and regional relations.

Israel needs a new government committed to peace and a cabinet that champions reconciliation. Perpetual war plays into the hands of Hamas. It placates Jewish hardliners who oppose the national aspirations of Palestinians. War also serves Netanyahu by distracting voters and delaying accountability for his government’s intelligence failures on October 7.

It took up to ten hours for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to react to Hamas’ invasion. Known for its security and intelligence services, Israel was caught flat-footed. Panicked residents of kibbutzim cowered in safe rooms, while 1,200 Israelis were killed, butchered in their homes and on the grounds of the Nova Music Festival. Hundreds were taken hostage by Hamas, gang-raped and turned into sexual slaves. One hundred and thirty remain in captivity.

It is impossible to reconcile Israel’s objectives. Israel cannot eradicate Hamas and free hostages captive in the subterranean world of Gaza’s tunnel network. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin just visited Jerusalem to discuss priorities and scaling back Israel’s offensive.

In the fog of war, the IDF killed three Israeli hostages last week displaying a white flag and speaking in Hebrew. Shooting people, even Hamas members who surrender, violates the laws of war and Israel’s military code. Exhausted and trigger happy, the incident is under investigation. The Israeli army chief of staff and the intelligence chief issued apologies. Netanyahu prevaricated, delaying his meeting with hostage families.

The incident caused outrage across Israel, raising questions about Israel’s conduct of the war. The Hamas Ministry of Health claims that 20,000 Palestinian civilians have died as a result of IDF activities. Hostage families are demanding an investigation.

There is a growing clamor to bring the hostages home. Hostage families are also demanding a plan to end the war. They have generally been supportive of Netanyahu’s response, but they are wavering. They believe that continued action in Gaza risks the lives of the remaining 130 hostages. The bungled operation has brought Israeli institutions – the IDF, Shin Bet and Mossad – into disrepute.

Even President Joe Biden, Israel’s biggest backer, criticized the IDF for its “indiscriminate bombing.” France, Germany and Britain are also fed up and have demanded a “sustainable ceasefire.”

Netanyahu said there will be a time and place for an inquiry into the Hamas attack and Israel’s response. He believes that the longer it takes for an inquiry, the more the passions of hostage families will be mollified.

Israel’s slow grinding war with Hamas must stop. Israel was justified in launching a reprisal after October 7, especially as details of the brutality came to light. Two months later, the IDF seems to be flailing about. Israel has been characterized as the aggressor and has lost the moral high ground. For sure, Israel has every right to defend itself. But what started as calculated counterterrorism now seems more like rage and revenge.

Can Hamas even be defeated? Hamas is more than an organization. It is a movement. For every Hamas terrorist that Israel kills, more Palestinian militants are waiting in the wings.

It’s time for a new approach. An interim government overseen by the Palestinian Authority should be established and make plans for an eventual Palestinian state living side-by-side at peace with Israel.

Indiscriminate bombing is counterproductive. A more surgical approach would differentiate between Hamas and Gazans, addressing claims of collective punishment.

Internationally mediated talks would ensue when the hostages are freed. Palestinians need a national horizon to separate themselves from the clutches of Hamas.

Israeli elections would likely repudiate Netanyahu and lead to the creation of a peace cabinet, putting Israel back on track as a democracy that respects minority rights and values good neighborly relations.

It is unimaginable that Netanyahu can survive his putrid performance. Prosecutors are waiting to charge Netanyahu with corruption. Israelis can debate the details of government formation for months, but polling suggests that regime change is something that Israelis agree on now.

David Phillips is an Adjunct Professor at the Security Studies Program of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

IPS UN Bureau

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